Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray end of May forecast

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 16, 2006 5:28 pm

On May 31 the Colorado State University folks will release their hours before the season starts outlook.What do all think about what will their numbers will be.I say they will leave the numbers the same 17/9/5.

This poll was approved by the staff.

#2 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Tue May 16, 2006 5:33 pm

Leave them the same, or maybe even an upgrade I think. I can not see them being downgraded though.

CHRISTY · #3 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 16, 2006 5:42 pm

I say he may upgrade his numbers by a bit but not my much!I think even more important will be the the debute of what might the steering patterns might be in 2006!really looking forward to that.... :wink:

Coredesat · #4 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue May 16, 2006 5:51 pm

I think they'll stay the same, especially now that we're in a neutral ENSO pattern.

#5 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue May 16, 2006 6:12 pm

Pretty much close to the same I think. Last year was incredibly busy, but it's hard to imagine an encore like that.

#6 Postby **wxman57** » Tue May 16, 2006 6:16 pm

I certainly see no reason to raise the numbers. If anything, I think they're already too high. The mid-May pattern this year looks different from 2005. Tropical waves are tracking much farther to the south into South America vs. into the mid Caribbean Sea last year. Pressures across the Caribbean are higher. This indicates a much less active June/July. Beside that, looks like at most a very weak La Nina trending to neutral.

mike815 · #7 Postby **mike815** » Tue May 16, 2006 6:17 pm

no major changes maybe by one or two storms down or up at the very most.

#8 Postby **angelwing** » Tue May 16, 2006 6:55 pm

Upgrade 1 or 2 at the most

benny · #9 Postby **benny** » Tue May 16, 2006 7:00 pm

I say no big changes. Nothing in the climate world suggests making the forecast even higher.. at least nothing I see

#10 Postby **JPmia** » Tue May 16, 2006 8:51 pm

benny wrote:I say no big changes. Nothing in the climate world suggests making the forecast even higher.. at least nothing I see

What do you think about their new forecast for pattern setup and landfall locations? What is the current thinking on "danger" zones this year...we already saw JBs Map (although not scientific) of "higher risk" zones.

boca · #11 Postby **boca** » Tue May 16, 2006 10:44 pm

I think the numbers will remain unchanged due to neutral conditions forecasted.

Audrey2Katrina · #12 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Tue May 16, 2006 11:20 pm

I don't think they'll change 'em. Seriously doubt they'll go down, and IF they go up it'll be only by 1 or 2... so I'm sticking with stay the same.

A2K

T'Bonz · #13 Postby **T'Bonz** » Wed May 17, 2006 12:22 am

Both my brother and I thought the update was coming out last Friday. Was there a delay for some reason or were we wrong?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #14 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed May 17, 2006 3:09 am

I agree with Wxman57...The pattern is much different from 2005. The only thing going fos year is the gulf. I see 15 named storms and these forecasters downgrading there numbers.

mobilebay · #15 Postby **mobilebay** » Wed May 17, 2006 4:03 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I agree with Wxman57...The pattern is much different from 2005. The only thing going fos year is the gulf. I see 15 named storms and these forecasters downgrading there numbers.

Matt in my humble opinion I think you are wrong. The pattern is not that much different from last year. We will be in a neutral phase of ENSO (same as last year), we are also smack in the middle of an upswing in hurricane activity that Dr. Grey has been preaching for years. True the pressures are a little higher in the Caribbean, and SST's aren't quiet as warm as last years but still way above average. As For as the Tropical wave comment the TAFB has only analysed one (1) tropical wave and that is forecasted to be in the central Caribbean in 72 hours. I'm assuming he was trying to say the ITCZ is a little further south than last years. All in all I think Dr. Gray is on target, and will leave his numbers where they are. JMHO.

Also everyone keeps comparing this season with last years. Dr. Grey has already shaved 11 TS off of last years totals. So please keep that in mind.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu May 18, 2006 3:40 pm

Those who haved not voted yet at this poll still can do so before May 31 so come and vote.

Old-TimeCane · #17 Postby **Old-TimeCane** » Thu May 18, 2006 3:49 pm

I think the numbers will be left alone this time around. If there is any adjustement, I think it might be moving the number of hurricanes up one.

#18 Postby **dhweather** » Thu May 18, 2006 4:36 pm

Stay the same, or perhaps down 1-2.

spinfan4eva · #19 Postby **spinfan4eva** » Thu May 18, 2006 5:32 pm

I think he will leave them the same despite Pat Robertsons prediction that came from god...Or was pat hearing voices or maybe God sounds like Dr Gray :lol:

"If I heard the Lord right about 2006, the coasts of America will be lashed by storms," Robertson said May 8.

http://articles.news.aol.com/news/artic ... 1909990001

ROCK · #20 Postby **ROCK** » Thu May 18, 2006 7:09 pm

Voted for lower by 1 or 2...

Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray end of May forecast

Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray end of May outlook?

Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray end of May forecast

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