Tropical Formation in the Caribbean later this week?

[cheezyWXguy]

If you look at this map, it shows a little bit of weak banding in the light blue color( this is a JSL map)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/jsl.jpg

[Evil Jeremy]

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING NWD FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ALONG
25N64W 32N61W. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG
32N75W TO A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 28N78W THEN ACROSS S FLORIDA TO A 1006
MB LOW NEAR KEY WEST THEN ACROSS W CUBA TO 17N89W. A LARGE SWATH OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMS LIE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM
NICARAGUA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 14N84W TO EASTERN CUBA. N OF CUBA...THE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGES
WITH THE SFC FRONT AND STRETCHES WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM E CUBA
TO 30N72W. THIS SHIELD OF RAIN IS SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP
TEMPS COLDER THAN -85C IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN
WATERS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W MOVING WWARD ON THE S SIDE OF THE
UPPER ANTICYCLONE. FAIR WEATHER IS THE RULE E OF 73W IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND E OF 65W IN THE W ATLC UNDER DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT. A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE FROM 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA E OF 75W. THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THRU THU AND THEN WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE SFC RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWARD ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.




did i bold the correct info?

[cheezyWXguy]

think so...

[Evil Jeremy]

it would be amazing if this does form! do you think that it will?

[dixiebreeze]

Rather interesting pattern in the Caribbean and E. Atlantic for May. Shear doesn't seem to be very prevalent:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[jabber]

it would be amazing if this does form! do you think that it will?

I , for one, do not thing anything will come out of it. Way to much shear still.... now in a another month or so all bets are off.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

[no advance]

Jabber I dont think you all will have to wait that long. Right now the seeds are set in place by next Monday or so we will know if they grow. Watch the SW Carib.

[jabber]

Jabber I dont think you all will have to wait that long. Right now the seeds are set in place by next Monday or so we will know if they grow. Watch the SW Carib.

Oh you can bet I will be watching....

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir4.html

Nothing will form down their in the near term way too much shear. Like no advance said watch the seeds grow next week from all that left over moisture.

[Stratusxpeye]

Not sure if we'll see anything form here in the immediate days to come but in a month or a couple weeks we could be discussing something with higher potential. Motto of my theory "sit wait and watch" stare at those graphics all day and night

[Dustin]

It looks like some convection to the south of the yuctan. Although I dont know where this tropical wave is, east of the leward islands.

[no advance]

Where is Floydbuster? He might have a serious look at the SW Car.

[Weatherfreak000]

Here is an exerpt from Jeff Master's Blog discussing this...

Tropical outlook for the next week
With the coming of a more summerlike pattern next week, we will need to start watching the Western Caribbean for some possible tropical development; wind shear values there are starting to fall to levels where tropical development is possible again. Wind shear is quite low (5-10 knots) over the waters just north of Panama today and will stay low the next few days, but at present the clouds there are sparse and disorganized, and I am not expecting anything to develop this week. Next week things may be more favorable, when the remains of a cold front that pushes off the coast could provide enough of an initial disurbance to kick something off--if the front can push far enough south, where wind shear is lower. Again, I am not really expecting anything to develop, wind shear should still be high enough to make tropical development marginal.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC says that there is a weak, 1010 mb, low pressure under or near the convection in the South Caribbean Sea.



Furthermore, the area has lots of moisture. We know that the dry air is always a problem.

Nevertheless, as of today, I don't expect any development soon.

[Weatherfreak000]

Looks pretty decent, I was watching that myself.

[Damar91]

I don't like where that blob is. Reminds me too much of where Wilma started last year. Although condtions aren't the same as they were when she was formed, I know.

[CHRISTY]

Shear is very low in the area righr now ,so if it can sucessfully survive this cold front passage we might be talking about TD 1.Most of other variables look good,a fair amount of upper divergence,plenty of upper and mid level spin,abundant moisture aloft,warm SST'S around 28 degrees celcius and pretty good deep convection.I would say it has 50 to 50 chance of developing.

Here's a large IR image of the Tropical wave!

[cycloneye]

BROAD 1010
MB LOW IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W ACCORDING TO SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
LOW-LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT IN SW
CARIBBEAN'S DIFFLUENT UPPER ENVIRONMENT. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH RUNNING FROM THE CAYMANS TO NW COLOMBIA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
WEST AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE S OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 74W-82W.

The above is from the 2 PM discussion from TPC about the area in the SW and Central Caribbean.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Wouldn't surprise me at all if this thing did get its' act together. After all if a May storm is going to form this is the general area one would expect to see it.

Also goes along with my thinking for an early, and historically active, 2006 season.

[JonathanBelles]

i would say 20-30% chance development