Accuwx Issues Same Prediction Again

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Joe is a great forecaster and a great guy. I like his idea of an early season storm in the western Gulf in June the way the upper air pattern has been.

[Portastorm]

Sure JB got Katrina right! He's been predicting a New Orleans devastation for years now. He's bound to get it right one year! Same thing goes for New York.

Yeah? Well, using that logic the same could be said for the National Hurricane Center.

Both JB and NHC have said for years that New Orleans was due for a major hit. We all knew it so it's not like it was a secret.

[skysummit]

Sure JB got Katrina right! He's been predicting a New Orleans devastation for years now. He's bound to get it right one year! Same thing goes for New York.

Yeah? Well, using that logic the same could be said for the National Hurricane Center.

No...the NHC doesn't forecast landfalls 1 month out and turn it into a soap opera just to get website hits. Plus, the NHC is MUCH more accurate.

[Portastorm]

Sure JB got Katrina right! He's been predicting a New Orleans devastation for years now. He's bound to get it right one year! Same thing goes for New York.

Yeah? Well, using that logic the same could be said for the National Hurricane Center.

No...the NHC doesn't forecast landfalls 1 month out and turn it into a soap opera just to get website hits. Plus, the NHC is MUCH more accurate.

Hard for me to objectively debate your comments given that we all might have different opinions on what a "soap opera" is.

Also, I am NOT dissing NHC or their accuracy. I happen to think the world of the men and women who work there!

I'm just challenging your statement of "predicting a New Orleans devastation for years now". The truth is that NHC experts from Neil Frank on down (as well as others) have warned us about places like New Orleans and how sooner or later they would suffer from a major hit.

[MWatkins]

I started this thread with a couple of points in mind and have been absent since. Here were the main ones which I have articulated elsewhere and think I should remphasize given the length of this thread:

1. JB, on average, is good for weather. He’s energetic, he’s passionate about his work, he speaks well and effectively communicates complex ideas to people. One needs not look any further than this thread…there are a lot of JB supporters for just that reason. This post was most certainly a personal attach of any kind, just an observation.

2. In July 2005, the prime areas were the Carolinas and NE US Coast based on analogs specifically sited in 1954, 1998 and 1999. Although the 2006 pattern, in many many ways will be different 2005, he is using the same analogs. I personally think they are better applied to this season as opposed to last, and CSU is using these in their forecast as well. But the 2006 reasoning presented in this article and in the preliminary outlook are, minus a couple of secondary characteristics, very similar.

Here are my specific beefs with the science behind what Accuweather (and not specifically JB as a person) is doing:

1. JB has created his own hurricane intensity scale factoring in pressure and wind, which appears to have a strong positive intensity bias. This allows him, in theory, to call tropical storms hurricanes, cat 2 hurricanes cat 3 hurricanes etc. However, I know of no research papers, studies etc. ever written by JB or Accuweather to support a new scale. So this scale is based on his personal and professional observations as a meteorologist, which is fine as long as it’s presented that way. However, once it’s used to discredit the NHC and or generate confusion over the status or intensity of a hurricane or tropical storm, it’s going to cause problems. If it’s used to objectively verify forecasts against the NHC at the end of the year, it is scientifically invalid, as the data populations compared are no longer classified the same.

2. Accuwx in general has been on a full scale media blitz to discredit the NHC and the NWS, yet they have not proven even on a storm level basis to be better forecasters than the NHC. All of the incidental objective analysis for comparable storms at valid VT’s have shown this. I suppose if you say you’re better than someone else at something, and you do so loud enough, that’s all you need to do if no one asks you to prove it. I look at this very critically.

I am not saying JB is a bad forecaster at all. He’s good for weather and he’s a good representative of the weather community. As I have stated many times my differences in opinion lie mostly with his employer.

I question why last years forecast was dusted off and used again this season, sure. I completely understand the business need to try to take out your competition from a private market prospective. But the NHC, at least currently, has demonstrated time after time that they are more consistent and more reliable than Accu, and when Accu can back that up with objective, verifiable data, I will be all about Accu.

MW

[southerngale]

Sure JB got Katrina right! He's been predicting a New Orleans devastation for years now. He's bound to get it right one year! Same thing goes for New York.

Yeah? Well, using that logic the same could be said for the National Hurricane Center.

No...the NHC doesn't forecast landfalls 1 month out and turn it into a soap opera just to get website hits. Plus, the NHC is MUCH more accurate.

I think everyone here agrees that the NHC is more accurate as they are the official source, but can we PLEASE stop with the Accuweather bashing? We've asked this numerous times and it isn't directed at just one person. We have Accuweather mets on here, who are simply trying to make a living. They don't deserve to read insults every time they open a thread that mentions Accuweather.

[terstorm1012]

southerngale, i don't think there has been any accuweather bashing (at least not to the scale that has occured in the past)

this thread has been very well behaved considering the subject.

[southerngale]

I agree it hasn't elevated to the scale that that has occurred in the past, but there have been some comments that I would find offending if I was a met for Accuweather. The admins have said that we will not tolerate any bashing of any professional weather organization, personal feelings aside, so I'm just trying to nip it in the bud now, and before it gets worse.

[Derecho]

but can we PLEASE stop with the Accuweather bashing? They don't deserve to read insults every time they open a thread that mentions Accuweather.

Well, if AccuWeather would stop embarassing themselves and their profession, maybe they'd get "bashed" less. And if they stopped "bashing" NHC/NWS (knowing that NHC and NWS mets are not permitted to respond) maybe they'd get "bashed" less.

Did it ever cross any mod's minds that the cause of the "bashing" is that AccuWeather deserves it, not some cabal of evil meanie "basher" posters?

And why are accurate observations "insults?" I've got a large library save of patently ridiculous AccuWeather maps/commentary, in several cases apparently deliberately deceptive.

AccuWeather is CONSTANTLY in the news and constantly gets a simply unbelievable amount of media attention (it's clear they're designing their press releases more in mind of getting attention than accuracy, as well.)

Hence, I consider continuing discussion and criticism of them (and deservedly harsh criticism) perfectly valid, though of course that doesn't matter since I'm not a mod.

As I've said repeatedly I am simply in awe of the mindset that is absolutely terrified of any sort of criticism or mildly heated argument (ALL of which is perjoritively proclaimed "bashing.") I just don't get it.

Are people bursting into tears reading threads? Are AccuWeather mets reading this thread in danger of being made suicidal?

[terstorm1012]

I agree it hasn't elevated to the scale that that has occurred in the past, but there have been some comments that I would find offending if I was a met for Accuweather. The admins have said that we will not tolerate any bashing of any professional weather organization, personal feelings aside, so I'm just trying to nip it in the bud now, and before it gets worse.

ok cool, i hear you

[Portastorm]

but can we PLEASE stop with the Accuweather bashing? They don't deserve to read insults every time they open a thread that mentions Accuweather.

Well, if AccuWeather would stop embarassing themselves and their profession, maybe they'd get "bashed" less. And if they stopped "bashing" NHC/NWS (knowing that NHC and NWS mets are not permitted to respond) maybe they'd get "bashed" less.

Did it ever cross any mod's minds that the cause of the "bashing" is that AccuWeather deserves it, not some cabal of evil meanie "basher" posters?

And why are accurate observations "insults?" I've got a large library save of patently ridiculous AccuWeather maps/commentary, in several cases apparently deliberately deceptive.

AccuWeather is CONSTANTLY in the news and constantly gets a simply unbelievable amount of media attention (it's clear they're designing their press releases more in mind of getting attention than accuracy, as well.)

Hence, I consider continuing discussion and criticism of them (and deservedly harsh criticism) perfectly valid, though of course that doesn't matter since I'm not a mod.

As I've said repeatedly I am simply in awe of the mindset that is absolutely terrified of any sort of criticism or mildly heated argument (ALL of which is perjoritively proclaimed "bashing.") I just don't get it.

Are people bursting into tears reading threads? Are AccuWeather mets reading this thread in danger of being made suicidal?

This discussion has really gone south now ... we now have conspiracy theories abounding and alleged Accuweather intent to deceive the public.

Whatever ... next thing you know, they'll be tied into the DaVinci Code.

Hey Derecho, the only thing Accuweather "deserves" is to be treated for the quality of product they produce. Despite your opinion, millions of subscribers to their pro site and paying clients feel different. As I said earlier, money talks.

[southerngale]

but can we PLEASE stop with the Accuweather bashing? They don't deserve to read insults every time they open a thread that mentions Accuweather.

Well, if AccuWeather would stop embarassing themselves and their profession, maybe they'd get "bashed" less. And if they stopped "bashing" NHC/NWS (knowing that NHC and NWS mets are not permitted to respond) maybe they'd get "bashed" less.

Did it ever cross any mod's minds that the cause of the "bashing" is that AccuWeather deserves it, not some cabal of evil meanie "basher" posters?

And why are accurate observations "insults?" I've got a large library save of patently ridiculous AccuWeather maps/commentary, in several cases apparently deliberately deceptive.

AccuWeather is CONSTANTLY in the news and constantly gets a simply unbelievable amount of media attention (it's clear they're designing their press releases more in mind of getting attention than accuracy, as well.)

Hence, I consider continuing discussion and criticism of them (and deservedly harsh criticism) perfectly valid, though of course that doesn't matter since I'm not a mod.

As I've said repeatedly I am simply in awe of the mindset that is absolutely terrified of any sort of criticism or mildly heated argument (ALL of which is perjoritively proclaimed "bashing.") I just don't get it.

Are people bursting into tears reading threads? Are AccuWeather mets reading this thread in danger of being made suicidal?

We all know how you feel....you've made it clear for years. My personal opinion of Accuweather isn't what we're talking about. The ADMINS here have said, "We will not tolerate bashing of any professional weather organization." so whether it crossed my mind, or any other mod's mind, that Accuweather deserved it or not, doesn't matter. If I want, I can bash them all I want to my friends and family. The admins of this site have asked that we don't bash them on the board. Why is that so hard to understand? It doesn't necessarily mean we all even like Accuweather. That's irrelevant.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

"next thing you know, they'll be tied into the DaVinci Code."

Too true, too true

[george_r_1961]

but can we PLEASE stop with the Accuweather bashing? They don't deserve to read insults every time they open a thread that mentions Accuweather.

Well, if AccuWeather would stop embarassing themselves and their profession, maybe they'd get "bashed" less. And if they stopped "bashing" NHC/NWS (knowing that NHC and NWS mets are not permitted to respond) maybe they'd get "bashed" less.

Did it ever cross any mod's minds that the cause of the "bashing" is that AccuWeather deserves it, not some cabal of evil meanie "basher" posters?

And why are accurate observations "insults?" I've got a large library save of patently ridiculous AccuWeather maps/commentary, in several cases apparently deliberately deceptive.

AccuWeather is CONSTANTLY in the news and constantly gets a simply unbelievable amount of media attention (it's clear they're designing their press releases more in mind of getting attention than accuracy, as well.)

Hence, I consider continuing discussion and criticism of them (and deservedly harsh criticism) perfectly valid, though of course that doesn't matter since I'm not a mod.

As I've said repeatedly I am simply in awe of the mindset that is absolutely terrified of any sort of criticism or mildly heated argument (ALL of which is perjoritively proclaimed "bashing.") I just don't get it.

Are people bursting into tears reading threads? Are AccuWeather mets reading this thread in danger of being made suicidal?

Derecho the staff works hard to keep this a flame free board. If we have ppl bashing (or whatever word you want to use) accuweather or any other proffessional organization then we will have an equal number of ppl defending them here. So instead of discussing weather we will have a zillion page thread of ppl giving their often heated opinion. Thats not what this board is here for. The rules that were made by the admins are the reason why this is the best weather board on the net. And I do not find the rules restrictive in the least.

[corpusbreeze]

As far as JB and Accu, I just use it as another tool, along with the NHC, models, etc, to get a good idea where a storm may form and go. Not to mention the opinions and forecast from some on this board that I have learned to trust over the years. And yes i love to hears Jb with his energetic way of talking about the tropics. Ive seen JB change course on a storm along with everybody else. Hate to say it but predicting landfalls is still a craps shoot, but getting better. A person needs to take all info in , digest, and then make the proper decision on what to do if a storm may impact your area. I think Rita last year was a good example. We here in Corpus thought we were under the gun, but the track kept shifting north. I made a decision to stay put , while most left. Was I lucky? Or did I use what was out there to make the best informed choice? Bottom line , just use JB as another tool for information, at least that's what I do.

[southerngale]

Good advice, corpusbreeze.