Tropical Formation in the Caribbean later this week?

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KFDM Meteorologist
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#161 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed May 17, 2006 10:13 pm

I know the Euro Model has backed off a little.
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#162 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed May 17, 2006 10:13 pm

Shear continues to decrease in the Caribbean.
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#163 Postby tgenius » Wed May 17, 2006 10:19 pm

Forgive the ignorance..but what cycle does the Shear work off of? Does lack of shear last a week, a month, 3 months? It's one of those things I'm trying to follow.
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CHRISTY

#164 Postby CHRISTY » Wed May 17, 2006 10:24 pm

Guys after looking at this radar loop convection has really decreased in coverage!lets see if it flares up tommorow. :roll:

Image
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#165 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed May 17, 2006 10:24 pm

It varies. All depends on the upper air pattern at a given time.
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#166 Postby tailgater » Wed May 17, 2006 10:29 pm

This has EPAC written all over it.
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#167 Postby Jim Cantore » Wed May 17, 2006 10:33 pm

this thing is getting sheered to bits
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#168 Postby vbhoutex » Wed May 17, 2006 11:01 pm

Sheared to bits is right and headed for the EPAC is right. I don't see any worry for the Caribbean with this one. Possibly a flare up of showers tomorrow, but I think that would be about it.
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CHRISTY

#169 Postby CHRISTY » Wed May 17, 2006 11:39 pm

:sadly: :blowup:
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#170 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed May 17, 2006 11:40 pm

:ggreen:
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#171 Postby DoctorHurricane2003 » Thu May 18, 2006 12:02 am

Image

Sorry, I've been waiting to use this icon all night...and this thread's time is about up, so might as well ;)
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#172 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu May 18, 2006 4:44 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/ir4-l.jpg

Definitly time to lock this thread, you can't even see it on IR, that flare up over Cuba may do something but the Atlantic has become quiet again.
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#173 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu May 18, 2006 8:16 am

CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 60W...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS THE E U.S. AND W ATLC WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SWLY JET RACING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO W OF BERMUDA.
AS OF 09 UTC...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA ALONG 32N68W
26N74W TO A BROAD WEAK 1008 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W SWD
TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FRONT HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS MOISTURE HAS BECOME DIFFUSE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE FRONT N
OF THE SFC LOW. A STRONG CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS OVER E CUBA FROM
19N-22N BETWEEN 74W-76W. FARTHER EAST...A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR PUERTO RICO. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS
NEWARD FROM THE UPPER HIGH TO 32N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
N COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS THEN
ADVECTED NEWARD BY THE SWLY UPPER JET AND CONVERGES WITH THE FRONT
IN THE W ATLC. VERY DRY STABLE AIR IS WIDESPREAD TO THE E OF THE
UPPER HIGH. TRADEWINDS ARE WEAK IN THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND
THE FRONT WITH MODERATE TRADES E OF 70W. NLY WINDS NEAR 15 KT ARE
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NWD
LIKELY DISSIPATING BY THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL WILL BE MOST
CONCENTRATED IN THE W ATLC WITH STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NW
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE AREA. REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BUILD BACK WWARD
ACROSS THE S GULF...CUBA AND S FLORIDA LATE SUN. TRADE WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A LARGE SFC RIDGE STRETCHES WWARD
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC.
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#174 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 18, 2006 1:21 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/ir4-l.jpg

Definitly time to lock this thread, you can't even see it on IR, that flare up over Cuba may do something but the Atlantic has become quiet again.


Unless it reaches the 10 page limit I dont see why it has to be locked.If no more replies are posted the thread will by itself go down the page and dissapear from page 1. :)
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#175 Postby no advance » Fri May 19, 2006 7:32 am

If you look at the WV http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html there is still plenty of disturbed weather in the W. Carib.. Zero percent chance of developing? Not zero look at the area Monday.
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#176 Postby boca » Fri May 19, 2006 7:39 am

no advance wrote:If you look at the WV http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html there is still plenty of disturbed weather in the W. Carib.. Zero percent chance of developing? Not zero look at the area Monday.


Do you think something might happen come Monday down there?
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#177 Postby no advance » Fri May 19, 2006 7:43 am

Once the UL trough north of Fl. moves out of the way it might leave a disturbed area of weather down in the SW Car. What do you think?
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#178 Postby boca » Fri May 19, 2006 7:51 am

If it does like you say that area of disturbed weather would move into the EPAC because of the easterlies down there. There still is moisture down there so will see.
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CHRISTY

#179 Postby CHRISTY » Fri May 19, 2006 9:10 am

Yes there is plenty of moisture in the area but the chances of something developing are very low....I expect activity to pick up in the coming weeks towards mid june and early july.

PS!I will say this conditions are becoming more and more favorable shear wise across the atlantic as you can see on this map.

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#180 Postby LaBreeze » Fri May 19, 2006 11:01 am

Yep, all of the local mets around here are saying dry as a bone for the next few weeks at least. We could really use some rainfall as I'm sure many of my fellow GOMers do also.
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