Trop./subtropical formation in Caribbean in coming weeks #2

[no advance]

Come Monday it might get interesting. Did not I say that last Tues. Have a nice day.

[drezee]

Oh I like this guy...he should do all the discussions!

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
MAINLY IN THE EPAC BUT ITS NORTHERN EXTENSION LIES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. A WEAK BROAD 1009 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 9N. THE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW AND
A SFC TROUGH IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MOVES FURTHER W ACROSS THE EPAC.

MOISTURE RELATED TO
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE WWD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN LATER TODAY
AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE W ATLC OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

Am I losing my mind?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Someone moved the floater to get a better look...

[meteorologyman]

I was beginning to wonder the same thing because that thing formed over land

[cheezyWXguy]

it does look like it has developed a low tho...

[meteorologyman]

Also, the tropical moisture in the Carribean is moving into the gulf so the Gulf will no longer remained dry.

[cheezyWXguy]

it doesnt have even a remotely small chance to develop in the next 2 days if it moves into the gulf..much too strong of shear

[drezee]

No buoys in that area to measure winds or pressure trends

Surface reports from northern Honduras...very light winds 2-3MB 24 hour pressure falls

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHLC.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHPL.html

Winds turned from ESE to NNE at Roatan just east of Belize

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

[meteorologyman]

it doesnt have even a remotely small chance to develop in the next 2 days if it moves into the gulf..much too strong of shear

o.k let me restate this, I said that tropical moisture is moving into the gulf so the Gulf will not remain dry. i did not say it was going to form into something

[boca]

It's just the old boundary that produced our rain in Florida last Monday and Tuesday but I'm not saying it won't develop into something else in a couple of days .

[boca]

Thunderstorms again for Florida defintely on the horizon.

[drezee]

Thunderstorms again for Florida defintely on the horizon.

I really hope so...

[cheezyWXguy]

o ya...sry..lol this thread's called the development of a (sub)tropical system so I jumped to a conclusion...sry

anyway,
check this out...I think the GFS shows some kind of storm that takes a tropical storm bret path(2005)

check out the 06z from 144-228
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[meteorologyman]

It's o.k no need to appoligize.

[boca]

Looks like it heads into old Mexico.

[drezee]

Buoy 42056 reporting SE winds now...
2MB 24 hour pressure fall
Seems like a wave passage

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[cheezyWXguy]

its not too far out in time when it first forms...I dont necessarilly buy it now...but 144 hrs is only 6 days away

[boca]

All that moisture moving NW will turn NE once it hits the old boundary which will cause our thunderstorms in FL

[drezee]

Buoy 42056 winds have now turned SSE. Definite wave passage there...

From NE to SSE in less than 24 hours

Maybe I can't read but...

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WILL DRIFT W AND WEAKEN LATER TODAY. ATLC RIDGE N OF
THE AREA THROUGH WED.

NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W
.THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...S OF 17N E OF 78W E WINDS 15 TO
20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 80W.
.MON THROUGH THU...S OF 17N E OF 80W E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 3 TO 5 FT N OF 17N AND 4 TO 6 FT S OF 17N.

Where are the East winds in the NW Caribbean? The ships and buoys are reporting SE winds across the board...

[boca]

Hopefully this system will give us much needed rain.

[Rainband]

Hopefully this system will give us much needed rain.

I agree. Though I think most of the moisture will be south of me