The 1954 Analog

[Portastorm]

The 1954 analog that JB (and others) are referencing about our current pattern certainly has my interest. Not only was that a scorching summer for Texas ... but also Hurricane Alice in 1954 made her impact by a record flood on the Rio Grande. 35 inches of rain in 24 hrs and the main border crossing bridge in Del Rio was washed out. Talk about a summer of extremes!

Gonna be interesting to watch this develop.

[Scott_inVA]

PNA comparison of the 2 years did get much closer in March (Jan/Feb were nearly polar opposites). Interestingly, the trend really does not matter until late April into July; that is when the PNA analog becomes potentially significant.

Year jan feb mar apr may
1954 -152 7 -177 -79 -4
2006 17 -204 -160

sorry the chart doesn't align correctly, but you get the idea.

Scott

[wxman57]

Wouldn't mind a year like 1954 on the Gulf coast. Just two low-end Cat 1 hurricanes in the Gulf that hit Mexico and a weak TS into southwest Louisiana. Of course, the east coast didn't fare so well. Two hurricanes into New England and Cat 4 Hazel into SC/NC. I do agree that the pattern supports east coast landfalls in 2006 and beyond.

[MiamiensisWx]

Wouldn't mind a year like 1954 on the Gulf coast. Just two low-end Cat 1 hurricanes in the Gulf that hit Mexico and a weak TS into southwest Louisiana. Of course, the east coast didn't fare so well. Two hurricanes into New England and Cat 4 Hazel into SC/NC. I do agree that the pattern supports east coast landfalls in 2006 and beyond.

What is your take on what the steering pattern setup possibility may be this year, wxman57?

[Extremeweatherguy]

if we see a 1954 year (path-wise), then those low end Cat. 1 hurricanes would likely become major hurricanes in the warmer waters of the gulf.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Thought I'd be helpful and post the track map for those interested, in getting a general feel for what tracks storms took that year:

[wxmann_91]

That pretty much agrees with my thinking. Texas and the Carolinas northward to New England should be the main areas under the gun this year.

[brunota2003]

a Cat 1, Cat 2, and a Cat 3 impacting me in the same year??? are you crazy??? no pattern like 1954...I like my house...

[Portastorm]

[quote="Extremeweatherguy"]if we see a 1954 year (path-wise), then those low end Cat. 1 hurricanes would likely become major hurricanes in the warmer waters of the gulf.[/quote

Perhaps ... but weather in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will play an equally important (if not more than important) role.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Let us all hope that the mean track is further East in 2006 than in 1954 and out to sea.

[Extremeweatherguy]

we also need to remember that 1954 is just one of Bastardi's analog years. This means that he is not expecting this year to be JUST LIKE 1954, but instead a mix of 1954 with a few other years he has chosen. I do not know the other years off the top of my head, but I may go and try to find them out later.

[Portastorm]

we also need to remember that 1954 is just one of Bastardi's analog years. This means that he is not expecting this year to be JUST LIKE 1954, but instead a mix of 1954 with a few other years he has chosen. I do not know the other years off the top of my head, but I may go and try to find them out later.

Extreme, I want to say he's mentioned 1999 as well as the other closest analog. I recognize we're not talking about weather exactly like a particular analog year but it is interesting to go back and look at those years and what the real weather was like.

I checked the daily highs for the entire summer in 1954 here in Austin. Man, it was blazing hot all summer. I for one and cheering for a non-1954 year!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

And here is 1999. The year of the infamous monster Hurricane Floyd:

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I recall in the local News Paper them mentioning that besides the two hurricanes it was a very wet Summer and Early Fall in my own area. Even saying we had "rainstorm upon rainstorm', though nowhere near as bad as the two big ones were.

[Extremeweatherguy]

And here is 1999. The year of the infamous monster Hurricane Floyd:

A Bret strength storm about 100-150 miles further north would be a horrible, horrible situation! Let's hope this kind of scenario never plays out.

[ronjon]

Take JB's "forecast" with a huge grain of salt. Anyone that predicts 3 Major Hurricanes impacting the US this season is pretty far out on a limb. Remember, this is the guy that kept sayin Katrina was headed to Houston. There is no doubt we are in a warm phase of the AMO which means we will have higher than average number of storms for perhaps the next 10 to 40 years. It's also a La Nina year which means lower than average wind shear in the atlantic basin. JB might be correct this year but it'll be shear luck or persistence (i.e. if ya say it often enuff, it's bound to happen). My prediction this year - more storms than average with several Cape Verde origin storms developing - last year shear pretty much ripped up the Cape Verde development - don't see it happening this year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Take JB's "forecast" with a huge grain of salt. Anyone that predicts 3 Major Hurricanes impacting the US this season is pretty far out on a limb. Remember, this is the guy that kept sayin Katrina was headed to Houston. There is no doubt we are in a warm phase of the AMO which means we will have higher than average number of storms for perhaps the next 10 to 40 years. It's also a La Nina year which means lower than average wind shear in the atlantic basin. JB might be correct this year but it'll be shear luck or persistence (i.e. if ya say it often enuff, it's bound to happen). My prediction this year - more storms than average with several Cape Verde origin storms developing - last year shear pretty much ripped up the Cape Verde development - don't see it happening this year.

Katrina heading to Houston? Actually, Joe Bastardi was always consistant in the thinking that Katrina was heading to New Orleans; he even predicted a New Orleans hit last July/August MONTHS in advance. As for the Houston storm, that was Rita, and actually that was a very good forecast. He called for it to hit Houston when the NHC was still saying Brownsville. Turns out he was wrong (as it hit east of Houston), but he really was not all that far off. As for the 3 majors hitting the US in a single season...that is really not all that impossible....for example: 2004 had Charley, Jeanne and Ivan and 2005 had Katrina, Dennis and Rita. If it has happened the last two years, then why wouldn't it happen again?

[CrazyC83]

Honestly, I think there will be 4 or 5 major hurricanes hitting the US this season, out of 6-8 hurricanes and 9-11 tropical storms hitting the US.

[cheezyWXguy]

it think there will be 3-5 majors of the 5-8 hurricanes of the 8 to 10 named storms possibly impacting the U.S. no way its only 6 lanfalls

[CHRISTY]

I think the Steering Patterns in 2006 may look like somewere in between 2004 and 2005....but thats just my opinion.