NOAA'S May Outlook=13-16 named storms,8-10 canes,4-6 majors

[wxman57]

its not all about the water temps geez im getting sick of hearing it there still overall warmer shear is extremly light thats critical waters will warm further during the summer im thinking that it will be on the high end around 20 storms and im not trying to be mean its just water temps isnt what is critical to an active season and it changes all the time

You might try using punctuation in your posts. That sentence above is quite difficult to understand.

[mike815]

well i think it is very possible and likely seasons like o5 will happen and perhapes much sooner as well things arnt the same anymore

[Steve H.]

Let's not be stupid. This forecast is extremely disturbing and NOT LOW! Last year was the most active season in recorded history, and the forecasted numbers are higher this year than last. What's the confidence of hindcast skill with this one anomalous year to go by. They can't realistically raise the prediction much more than they have if they're using any statistical averages (which they do). To do anything else would be unsound and just a SWAG. A very ominous forecast IMO. ime to stock up! I think we'll see the "A" storm by the 20th of June.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

It's surprising that so many people (at S2K) are predicting such high numbers (20 or more).

No its not. This exact thing happened after 1995 with many people (not necessarily online, but the common person in the real world too.

People think that you get one huge season and suddenly every season after it will have 352 named storms. They fail to see reality, even when presented evidence. I'm personally very tired of it, and wish people would use logic this season when asking questions and making amateur forecasts. Unfortunately, I do not think that will be the case as already shown by the seasonal forecast thread. People don't want to use logic, they want to be "excited" at the thought of tracking a system almost every day of hurricane season. They want to get to Hurricane Omega for whatever reason. It's not going to happen, fortunately, and hopefully after this season is over, people will calm down and go back to predicting realistic numbers.

[CrazyC83]

In defence of those predicting a repeat of 2005 with ultra-extreme numbers (like 25-30 named storms), the high temperatures and inexistent shear did not yet exist at this point. That is why they went with 12-15 at this point last year.

I'm going with a forecast similar to the other hyperactive years of 1933, 1969 and 1995, but not at the levels of the outrageous 2005 season.

If anyone predicted there would be 30 named storms in 2005 at this point, they would be laughed at. (It almost got there and would of had two of the three depressions strengthened even slightly)

[skysummit]

Ok Dr., but also remember this is a place for everyone to get together. Some are pro mets, some or highly rated amateurs, some are amateurs, some come just to get information, some post thoughts that are made from analying the way leaves fall...it all depends. We can't get frustrated with each other. I know it's hard, and at times I find myself getting aggrevated...just as I know many people on here get aggrevated with me and some of my posts, but it's a tropical forum and that's what is posted here. We just need to remember when we want accurate data, we know who to look at for that. For everything else, members should be able to post their thoughts and opinions, as long as it's within reason and not against the rules of this forum.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

the high temperatures and inexistent shear did not yet exist at this point

Actually they did. The two peaks of the record SST anomalies were in March and June.

as long as it's within reason

I fail to see how some people, who are predicting around 30 named storms, are "within reason"

[skysummit]

as long as it's within reason

I fail to see how some people, who are predicting around 30 named storms, are "within reason"

Yea, you're right about that one! (and pretty much everything else you said too )

[Hyperstorm]

its not all about the water temps geez im getting sick of hearing it there still overall warmer shear is extremly light thats critical waters will warm further during the summer im thinking that it will be on the high end around 20 storms and im not trying to be mean its just water temps isnt what is critical to an active season and it changes all the time

Whether your or anybody admits to it or not, last year's record SSTs combined with lower surface pressures played a role in the hurricane season. Was it the amount of storms or/and the intensity, etc...? That could very well be debated. However, we know that they played a significant role. What kept forecasts down earlier in the year were (as Chris mentioned) the news of hindering factors late in the season.

Current SSTs are very similar to the years previous to last year. All other factors remain about the same. We can't predict wind shear in advance with great accuracy, so the factors indicate...yes another active season, but not record or near-record active.

Did we see an extreme season after 1933? No. Did we see an extreme season after 1995? No. We can't expect every hurricane season to beat the other one just because SSTs are 1-3 degrees Fahrenheit above average in some areas. In fact, I would say SSTs are in the new average for this active warm period which began in 1995.

As I said earlier, the predicted intensity of the storms is still a cause of concern, regardless of total numbers...

[Portastorm]

Typical media. Associated Press' headline on the NHC news release mentions the upcoming season as "calmer."

Sure, in one way that's accurate but I would never call a predicted above normal hurricane season as "calmer." Sheesh!

[ALhurricane]

It is amazing how quickly we become jaded as a society. I would have never thought a forecast of 13-16 storms would not be considered a big season.

I think trying to compare anything to the 2005 season is a disservice to the public.

[Scorpion]

I totally agree. 2004 was a bad season and had 15 named storms. I hate the media BS saying things such as "Good news, the season should be calmer than 2005". Oh well, if people want to get complacent because of that then let them.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm not going to trust the NOAA's forecast numbers. Last year the forecast was 15 named storms but it was actually 27! The only thing I'm trusting is mother nature this year.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Um, that's because no one in their right minds would forecast a season to have 20+ named storms before the season began. Why? Because it is so statistically unlikely...like a less than 1% chance of occurring.

[seaswing]

I totally agree. 2004 was a bad season and had 15 named storms. I hate the media BS saying things such as "Good news, the season should be calmer than 2005". Oh well, if people want to get complacent because of that then let them.

2004 season is what made me go out and buy a generator last year. When you look at the predictions, it ups the predictions os storms by (1). How can they say calmer? compared to what? it makes no sense unless they were speaking of the EPAC. No one needs to panic but expect to have a close call at least.

[southerngale]

Where did y'all see it say "calmer"? The only media I've seen talk about it so far is Fox News and they didn't mention calmer. They said NOAA was predicting another active season and then went on to talk about the predictions and show clips from the press conference, etc.

But I do think it will be "calmer" than 2005. Like others said, that many named storms is EXTREMELY RARE. But the message should be that an active season is predicted, so people pay attention and prepare. After the last few years, only a fool would not pay attention.

[MiamiensisWx]

Kelly, here is the article they were mentioning that said we will have a calmer season (which we won't).

Article

[southerngale]

Thanks Cape.

Did the AP think predicting 25-30 named storms was even a possibility so they had the "calmer" headline ready to go if they didn't?

I understand that they do expect it to be calmer than last year. That's a no-brainer, but that's a very poor headline IMO.

[jasons2k]

Drudge headline reads (for now):
"FEDS PREDICT BUSY HURRICANE SEASON"
http://www.drudgereport.com

[whereverwx]

I'm not surprised, but I'm glad my numbers are within that range. (14/7/4)