May 23-24 chances?

[dean]

SPC put out in the 4-8 day outlook, a severe weather chance May 23-24 for the upper midwest. still early right now, but something to keep in mind and watch as time gets closer. if it holds up i might have my first chase oppurtunity.

[CrazyC83]

SPC put out in the 4-8 day outlook, a severe weather chance May 23-24 for the upper midwest. still early right now, but something to keep in mind and watch as time gets closer. if it holds up i might have my first chase oppurtunity.

Very difficult to call at this point. Can't forecast 7 days out.

[dean]

SPC put out in the 4-8 day outlook, a severe weather chance May 23-24 for the upper midwest. still early right now, but something to keep in mind and watch as time gets closer. if it holds up i might have my first chase oppurtunity.

Very difficult to call at this point. Can't forecast 7 days out.

i know, just something to keep an eye on.

[WaitingForSiren]

I agree, and I am very excited. The only concern I have is temps being too warm and thus capping issues...if its in the 90s with dews only around 60 or not even 60...nothing will happen. We need temps in the mid 80s and low 60s dews to get something great...and all that depends on the exact track of the surface low. If it goes into canada our chances are less...we want it into northern MN i guess. right now looks like a sizable hail or wind event, with several brief tornadoes. But that threat could increase.

[dean]

I agree, and I am very excited. The only concern I have is temps being too warm and thus capping issues...if its in the 90s with dews only around 60 or not even 60...nothing will happen. We need temps in the mid 80s and low 60s dews to get something great...and all that depends on the exact track of the surface low. If it goes into canada our chances are less...we want it into northern MN i guess. right now looks like a sizable hail or wind event, with several brief tornadoes. But that threat could increase.

awesome to meet someone from the Twin Cities too. i'm not gonna look at models till atleast sunday, but i'll keep an eye on the SPC outlook. hopefully we finally get our first "real" severe weather event of the season.

[CrazyC83]

I agree, and I am very excited. The only concern I have is temps being too warm and thus capping issues...if its in the 90s with dews only around 60 or not even 60...nothing will happen. We need temps in the mid 80s and low 60s dews to get something great...and all that depends on the exact track of the surface low. If it goes into canada our chances are less...we want it into northern MN i guess. right now looks like a sizable hail or wind event, with several brief tornadoes. But that threat could increase.

I think what we'll see are low to mid-80s with dewpoints in the high 60s/low 70s.

[WaitingForSiren]

lol...no offense but low 70s dews are NOT going to happen. I could see low 60s at best.

latest GFS finally is back on track with a stronger solution for us in MN..looks good =)

[dean]

well, looks like this is going to happen on Tuesday, which i dont have to work, so if i get my car fixed, i might be out for a little mini chase.

[WaitingForSiren]

As far as timing goes, i prefer wednesday here near mpls. Anything on tuesday should happen late at night, which isnt great. wednesday looks more active, possibly. But the main event looks like friday-monday next week, as a strong trough sets up overhead and the ring of fire takes shape. could be a nasty outbreak the way it looks now! =)

[CrazyC83]

How nasty? As in something we will long remember? Right now, I see bust central in my view, but it could still change.

[chizniz16]

Good to see that all of us Minnesotans are united on here. Ive known Dean and Dave for awhile and now you two have met eachother. Both of you have already had your fun in mpls, now it's time for southern MN to get action.

[WaitingForSiren]

Meh...all ive gotten this year is marble sized hail. Last year was fun, yes. But this year...not a lot other than tropical like downpours and hail. But it looks like you guys near Mankato could get something on wednesday, and if not maybe next weekend. I think the entire state of minnesota stands a decent shot at severe weather next weekend.

[CrazyC83]

Meh...all ive gotten this year is marble sized hail. Last year was fun, yes. But this year...not a lot other than tropical like downpours and hail. But it looks like you guys near Mankato could get something on wednesday, and if not maybe next weekend. I think the entire state of minnesota stands a decent shot at severe weather next weekend.

The SPC hasn't called such yet. I personally think this week will be a big bust due to the cooler weather. I could be wrong though...

[WaitingForSiren]

Crazy no offense but if you dont have actual REASONS for calling something a probable bust, there is no credit to what you are saying. And the cooler weather? well actually many past severe weather outbreaks had rather cool weather in the affected areas the week before. A strong storm will bring in moist air into the plains tomorrow and wednesday, and itll weaken and drift away with a stronger system in the plains next weekend pumping up moist air. In fact, by next saturday and sunday i expect dews in the 60s over much of the upper mis. valley and northern plains.

[dean]

hope that's not false hope for next week here in MN. for tomorrow, if i was going chasing, i would probably go with a target city of Blair, NE. looks to be pretty good moisture and speed shear, though the directional shear doesnt look as good.

[WaitingForSiren]

Tomorrow just looks like a bunch of elevated hailers in NE and SD to me...maybe spreading into IA at night. Overall i think next friday will be a bigger day with a significant threat across sd and ne for very large hail and isolated tornadoes, and saturday and sunday that should overspread a larger area (sd/nd, mn and wi included). Monday looks to just be plain hot with maybe night time storms.

[chizniz16]

Ive been up all night studying and will be up for a couple more hours. But I just noticed the new SPC has trimmed off some of their slight risk for Minnesota and I am right on the line. But i am not expecting anything anyhow, I wouldn't mind some nice elevated clouds for photography though. I have not looked into this weekend yet, but it seems like the low will give is a decent shot, it looks like a slow mover and with decent temps and finally some dew points we could have a chance. In the mean time lets enjoy this awesome weather here, mid 70's up to 80 in the next couple days. Tomorrow should really start to feel like summer according to mpls mets, talking about the dew points. wish me good luck on tests tomorrow. Siren you got out like 10 days ago and I still have another 10 days!

[CrazyC83]

We have tornado watches now in South Dakota and Nebraska, a severe thunderstorm watch in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and the hole will likely be filled by a new watch (unsure what type) soon in North Dakota.

IMO, the main threat area is from about I-80 north to 100 miles into Canada, and from US-83 east to I-29.

[CrazyC83]

Here's what we have now:

Severe T-Storm Watch - SE Nebraska, NE Kansas

Tornado Watch - E South Dakota, NE Nebraska

Severe T-Storm Watch - E Montana, W North Dakota

Severe T-Storm Watch - SE Saskatchewan

[conestogo_flood]

BUST!