Do we get access to the latest model runs on here?

[tgenius]

I know it sounds like a total newb question, but do the members on here share the different model runs?

[boca]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

This should help.

[tgenius]

But this isn't the FSU Superensemble correct? The General public does not have access to it to the best of my knowledge.

Thanks for the link btw!

[Evil Jeremy]

i dont understand how to use this. can someone plesae help me out?

[x-y-no]

i dont understand how to use this. can someone plesae help me out?

Jeremy:

That page offers output of recent runs from six different weather models. For the purposes of tropical systems, I would suggest you ignore the mm5fsu (it's very low resolution and tends to blow up systems like mad) and the Canadian (cmc) which doesn't do too well on tropical tracks.

To use the page, decide which model you're interested in, then in the "Field" column select what property you want to look at. The most useful fields for beginners to look at are the surface level pressure and the vorticity fields at various pressure levels. Take a look at all of them, though. They're pretty self-explanatory except for Theta-E which is a measure of the heat content and is related to instability.

Finally, either select "animation" or an hour (number of hours into the future from the run intial time) and click "submit". I'd suggest you get in the habit of looking at individual hour frames one at a time, rather than the animations. The animation is useful for getting an overall idea of the evolution of the pattern, but you (or at least I) can't focus in on details and relate them to particular times without a lot of effort.

That's all there is to it. Play around with it, and don't be afraid to ask questions.

EDIT: Oh, and just FYI, the GFDL is only run when there is an active system to track.

[Evil Jeremy]

what "feild" would be good for tracking Tropical Cyclones?

[skysummit]

what "feild" would be good for tracking Tropical Cyclones?

Sea Level Pressure

[Evil Jeremy]

and GFS is the best model? and what "Initial Time" setting should i chose? and also, im sorry if im bugging you all.

[hiflyer]

and GFS is the best model? and what "Initial Time" setting should i chose? and also, im sorry if im bugging you all.

Grin...you will get a variety of opinions regarding the GFS! I personally look at a few...and I pay closer attention to the UKmet and NoGaps but your mileage will vary. Use the initial time the page defaults to for right now. Sea level pressure under fields is good but play with the other choices to see the variations in altitude as well as precip and wind.

See you are in Plantation...I'm just west of you in Weston.

http://65.13.75.247/weather/index.html from Deerfield beach

http://www.myacc.net/~tedler64/weather/ from another member in Weston

[Starburst]

Also when we actually do have an active system cycloneye normally starts a model thread and you can always get the latest runs from there. That is how it was last year I assume it will be the same this year.

[x-y-no]

and GFS is the best model? and what "Initial Time" setting should i chose? and also, im sorry if im bugging you all.

You generally want the latest run (which is the default), so don't change that column.

As for what's the best model, my answer is there's no one best model. When it comes to evaluating tropical systems, of the models available on that site, I primarily use the GFDL when available, GFS and the UKMET.

My other favorite is the ECMWF, but the interface at the site I usually use for that is far less user friendly, so I recomment you stick to these for the moment.

EDIT: I should put a good word in for the RSMAS MM5 also. I hope they'll be posting their runs online again this year.

[jasons2k]

Didn't we used to have a sticky with a very good analysis of each model?

[Rainband]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ght=models

Here it is

[jasons2k]

Thanks Rainband!

[x-y-no]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=74793&highlight=models

Here it is

Wow, you're good!

Good discussion, pretty much in line with my opinion on the models.

Of course that's what makes it a good discussion!

[Rainband]

No problem

[Recurve]

The GFS animation is fascinating and sometimes terrifying to watch. If there is an active system or one that develops during the model run, you'll see a low-pressure area at sea level. Note the color scale at the bottom. Lower pressure is bluer, higher pressure is colored orange into red.
Click the "Forward" button to start the animation. If a typical tropical cyclone is trekking across the Atlantic, you'll see it as concentric circles (isobars, lines of equal pressure that graphically display the pressure gradident). Notice that the storm moves around the areas of high pressure (big orange areas). A truly strong high pressure area will have a deeper orange or red center, and the cyclone can't bust into high-pressure blobs, it will ride around them clockwise in the subtropics and mid latitudes (highs spin slowly clockwise, lows rotate counterclockwise.) The model will show whether the highs are forcast to break apart, shrink, or stay firm, and the cyclone (low, hurricane, etc) will be steered this way or that by riding between the highs/ridges and seeking troughs (low pressure gaps between highs).

You can see whether the model is forecasting cyclone intensification by watching for the isobars to get tighter around the low. If the cyclone has a purple center, it's pretty intense (below 980 mb). Hope that helps people who don't know at all what they're looking at.

[tgenius]

No one has answered my question, the general public is NOT able to view the FSU SuperEnsemble correct? I was under the impression that it was one of the most accurate.

[Canelaw99]

Correct tg - the general public doesn't have access to it....