91E invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 23, 2006 12:56 pm

The second invest for that basin and it looks good.Post away here your comments,graphics and model runs about this system.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 23, 2006 1:50 pm

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231700
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT TUE MAY 23 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...HAS DEVELOPED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI

Will this be Aletta?

x-y-no · #3 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue May 23, 2006 1:57 pm

Your prediction was right, Luis!

I think this does deserve an invest, but really it doesn't look any better than it did this morning. Still a very broad and disorganized low.

Coredesat · #4 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue May 23, 2006 2:33 pm

This must be that low the GFS was forecasting in the area a couple of days ago. The models don't do much else with it. The NOGAPS deepens it slightly, then weakens it after 72 hours.

Still, it's something to track. :slime:

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 23, 2006 2:36 pm

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.05.2006

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 9.2N 120.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 25.05.2006 9.2N 120.8W WEAK

12UTC 25.05.2006 8.8N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.05.2006 8.7N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.05.2006 8.5N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 27.05.2006 8.3N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.05.2006 8.4N 126.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.05.2006 8.7N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.05.2006 8.8N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.05.2006 9.2N 129.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.05.2006 9.5N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

I see that the positions in terms of longitud are farther west than where the actual disturbance is.So I dont know if UKMET is seeing another system more west than where the actual invest is.

#6 Postby **CrazyC83** » Tue May 23, 2006 2:49 pm

That looks very good on satellite...I'd say there is a 50-50 chance of it becoming TD1-E and a 35% chance of it becoming Aletta.

x-y-no · #7 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue May 23, 2006 2:49 pm

GFS carries it across southern Mexico in 5 to 6 days without ever having developed it much. It puts it as a weak low in the Bay of Campeche, but drifts that back over Mexico again.

CHRISTY · #8 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 23, 2006 4:27 pm

not looking any better organized...

CHRISTY · #9 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue May 23, 2006 5:05 pm

I think TD. formation is somewhat likely here.This map is now showing light blue which indicates a 1.5 percent...i have not seen it that high in a while.

hurricanefloyd5 · #10 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue May 23, 2006 5:52 pm

NEHO (NORTHEAST HURRICANE OFFICE)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
400 PM PDT TUE MAY 23 2006
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDERCATES A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE EAST PACIFIC COULD BE FORMING IN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IN THE SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC.AT THIS TIME NO ADVISORYS WILL BE ISSUED.

FORECASTER NEWELL

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue May 23, 2006 5:56 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 232234
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0400 PM PDT TUE MAY 23 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SMALL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
ARE GENERATING INTERMITTENT SHOWERS FROM ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

hurricanefloyd5 · #12 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Tue May 23, 2006 11:36 pm

when will the next TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK coming out??????????????

mobilebay · #13 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue May 23, 2006 11:40 pm

it's out now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0329.shtml

Ivan14 · #14 Postby **Ivan14** » Wed May 24, 2006 12:30 am

It looks pathetic but it is supposed to get more organized. I think it has a good shot at being a TD once it gets organized.

#15 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed May 24, 2006 9:33 am

Computer models:

GFS - develops into weak tropical storm, tracks into SW Mexico
CMC - does nothing
NOGAPS - develops into significant tropical storm, tracks into SW Mexico
GFDL - not available
UKM - does nothing

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed May 24, 2006 10:05 am

It doesn't look to be developing anytime soon! Aletta has to wait.

Derek Ortt · #17 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed May 24, 2006 11:05 am

what is the NEHO?

CHRISTY · #18 Postby **CHRISTY** » Wed May 24, 2006 11:27 am

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability in the pacific continues to increase everyday.take a look at the colors!

x-y-no · #19 Postby **x-y-no** » Wed May 24, 2006 11:29 am

Derek Ortt wrote:what is the NEHO?

Good question. Appears to be a phony. :roll:

hurricanefloyd5 · #20 Postby **hurricanefloyd5** » Wed May 24, 2006 12:06 pm

will a tropical storm watch be issued if it becomes a tropical depression?????

91E invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

91E invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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