MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0957
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0711 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL/SERN NE...N-CENTRAL THROUGH SWRN
   KS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381...
   
   VALID 240011Z - 240215Z
   
   SRN END OF NEARLY SOLID LINE OF STRONG-SVR TSTMS -- NEAR NEB BORDER
   -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD-ENEWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS WW WITH
   DAMAGING WIND AND OCCASIONAL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  VIS
   IMAGERY...MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CINH HAS WEAKENED
   CONSIDERABLY ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN THROUGH N-CENTRAL KS AS SFC COLD
   FRONT APCHS PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE.  SVR TSTM POTENTIAL MAY
   EXTEND SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL KS DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS
   BEFORE SFC DIABATIC COOLING ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHENS CINH.  ADDITIONAL
   OR REPLACEMENT WW MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN MRGL ACROSS THIS
   REGION WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND 00Z DDC
   RAOB.  HOWEVER...0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL ENLARGE E OF FRONT/DRYLINE
   AFTER SUNSET WHEN LLJ INCREASES...AND DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   INCREASES SWD AND EWD BECAUSE OF MORE WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW COMPONENT.
   BACKBUILDING ACTIVITY INITIALLY WILL BE HIGH BASED AND OUTFLOW/COLD
   POOL PRONE BECAUSE OF DEEPLY MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER...HOWEVER SOME
   DISCRETE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND BECOME
   SUSTAINED ON NOCTURNAL LLJ.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   37790058 38509988 39719954 40779863 40979643 40009647
   39999622 39559624 39409672 39049637 38839648 38859688
   38599694 38589788 37450077

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0958
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN-CENTRAL-NERN KS...SERN TO EXTREME
   E-CENTRAL NEB...EXTREME NWRN MO...WRN-CENTRAL IA...WRN-CENTRAL
   MN...EXTREME E-CENTRAL ND.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383...384...
   
   VALID 240306Z - 240500Z
   
   LINE OF TSTMS -- CONTAINING INTERMITTENT BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS AND
   RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL DURING
   LAST 2-3 HOURS -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS
   DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH REMAINDER LATE EVENING HOURS.  PRIND
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS PEAKED...PARTICULARLY FOR NRN PART OVER
   MN/ERN ND...WHERE TSTMS WILL MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   WEAKER BUOYANCY.  HOWEVER...ENOUGH SVR POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN TO
   WARRANT ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE OVER PORTIONS NERN KS...NWRN MO
   AND/OR WRN/CENTRAL IA.
   
   FOR NEXT 2-3 HOURS...DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD
   PERSIST...PARTICULARLY WITH LEWP FEATURES SUCH AS THOSE MOVING
   ACROSS LNK AREA AS OF 3Z.  AIR MASS OVER MOST OF AREA SHOULD BE
   CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR...MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG
   AND RELATIVELY WELL MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS -- ABOVE SHALLOW LAYER OF
   SFC COOLING.  MLCAPES/MUCAPES SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LARGER ACROSS
   WRN/CENTRAL IA INVOF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS...EVIDENT AT SFC AND ON
   ANALYZED 00Z 850/925 MB CHARTS.  EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS SHOULD
   BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME AND WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS
   MN/IA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MUCAPE TO SUSTAIN TSTM
   POTENTIAL.  THEREFORE...WHILE TSTMS MAY PERSIST...OVERALL SEVERE
   POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY BY APPROXIMATELY 6Z.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...DMX...EAX...FGF...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...ABR...GID...DDC...
   
   37520023 38229920 39649776 41609657 43249629 43899706
   44419616 45319624 46369608 47239767 47769515 46959390
   45379406 43919431 42149429 40569492 39999533 37739773
   37389890

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0959
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL IA INTO NWRN MO AND ERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 240656Z - 240830Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH
   MOST INTENSE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.  A NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
   ATTM.
   
   AS OF 0640Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN MCS ORGANIZED ALONG A
   COLD POOL FROM NEAR DSM SWWD TO APPROXIMATELY 35 NE STJ MOVING
   GENERALLY EWD AT 35 KTS.  MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT NRN PORTION OF
   THIS COMPLEX IS REACHING EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM
   N-CNTRL IA SSEWD THROUGH ERN MO/...DELINEATING THE ERN EDGE OF
   PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS.  THEREFORE...EXPECT ONGOING STORMS ALONG
   AND N OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO WEAKEN AS THEY PROGRESS E OF A I-35
   LONGITUDE.
   
   FARTHER TO THE SW...MORE DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED
   WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OVER FAR NERN KS /E OF TOP/...PRESUMABLY ALONG
   SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER
   LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.  40-50 KT SSWLY LLJ IS MAINTAINING AN INFLUX
   OF 60-65 F DEWPOINTS INTO THIS REGION...THOUGH RUC FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAPPING INVERSION OBSERVED ON THE 24/00Z TOP
   SOUNDING STILL EXISTS TO SOME DEGREE IN THE 850-650 MB LAYER.
   THEREFORE...DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR /PER LATHROP MO
   PROFILER/ AND MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG...THE REMAINING CAP MAY TEND
   TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY.
   
   AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   ..MEAD.. 05/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
   
   37859751 39089654 40339491 40919390 40679328 40009292
   38699401 37899518 37649623 37549675

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0960
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NE MO INTO PARTS OF SRN IA...PARTS OF WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241627Z - 241830Z
   
   TIMING OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IS STILL A BIT
   UNCERTAIN...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
   WW.
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN ON SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...
   ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 60S
   ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE MIXED
   LAYER CAPE IS BECOMING MAXIMIZED BENEATH NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
   ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH HAS ADVECTED OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU
   REGION.  THIS IS STILL PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION...BUT AN
   AREA OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...TO
   THE SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN PLAINS CLOSED LOW...APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING
   EAST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THIS
   WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT TO WEAKEN CAP...AND
   SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...LIKELY BY
   20-21Z...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 18-19Z.
   
   INITIATION MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY EAST OF KANSAS CITY.  THIS SEEMS
   LIKELY TO BE BASED ABOVE LINGER RADIATIONAL INVERSION...BUT WITH
   CONTINUED HEATING...STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BASED IN
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  SHEAR PROFILES
   BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY...BEFORE CONSOLIDATION
   INTO LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OCCURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MID
   AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  GIVEN
   FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES... LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN LONGER LIVED SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
   
   39519422 40139394 40979313 41849265 41969184 41249099
   40249104 39159166 38679222 38619303 38779383 38959425
   39209415

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0961
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0129 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MISSOURI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241829Z - 242030Z
   
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
   MAIN THREAT. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BY
   19-21Z.
   
   CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE VALUES IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO
   BE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND THE AIRMASS IS NOW MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
   THE AREA IS STILL CAPPED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
   F...BUT AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE LOW 90S F...THE CAP IS
   EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN WHAT WILL
   BE A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500
   J/KG BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE VERTICAL SHEAR STRUCTURE IS
   FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...HOWEVER...SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
   MID-LEVEL JET OF 35-50 KTS OVER THE AREA SUGGESTS STORMS THAT DO
   DEVELOP COULD HAVE SOME ORGANIZATION...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE
   LIKELY TO BE MULTICELLULAR. LOCALIZED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 05/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...
   
   38209461 38339386 38409257 38449100 38169022 37819000
   37359006 36639050 36499204 36529334 36569457 37109466
   37809466

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0962
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN WI...ERN IA...NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 241837Z - 242000Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR MORE WWS.
   
   NARROWING TONGUE OF MOISTURE EAST OF OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW IS
   BECOMING FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STILL FAIRLY STEEP ALONG AN AXIS
   ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA...WHERE SURFACE
   HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
   INSTABILITY.  MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...
   AND COULD...AT LEAST LOCALLY...APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE MAY BE INHIBITIVE OF
   VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER
   ...AS THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE DAKOTAS...
   INCREASED MID/UPPER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
   SCATTERED STORMS BY 21-22Z...IF NOT BEFORE.  AS ACTIVITY
   FORMS...MODERATELY SHEARED REGIME IN EXIT REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET
   STREAK PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
   POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...
   POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   45889286 46049131 45418971 44718931 43208926 41708967
   41269031 41259193 41469243 42799163 44899147

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MO...IL
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 385...
   
   VALID 241923Z - 242100Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.  ADDITIONAL WW/S/ WILL BE NEEDED TO THE EAST BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.
   
   AREA OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD
   THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF MAIN
   CLOSED LOW.  THIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR THE QUINCY/HANNIBAL AREA.
   ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY SURFACE-BASED JUST YET...BUT SHOULD
   BECOME SO SHORTLY...WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND FORCING ALONG
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.  EMBEDDED WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS WITH MIXED
   LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...WHICH HAS NOW SPREAD THROUGH MUCH
   OF ILLINOIS...EVOLUTION OF GROWING/EXPANDING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER NOW
   SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY.  PORTIONS OF EVOLVING
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BEGIN DEVELOPING EAST OF WW
   385...INTO THE SPRINGFIELD/DECATUR AREAS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
   AREAS NEAR/NORTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS BY 21Z.  LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED
   TORNADOES REMAIN MAIN THREAT NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT DAMAGING
   WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE TOWARD 25/00Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
   
   39159252 40749006 40038781 38698787 38018918 38329101
   38039260 38459350

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0426 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IND/IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387...
   
   VALID 242126Z - 242300Z
   
   A LARGE CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD
   AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT WRN IND BY EARLY EVENING. THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A WW WILL BE
   ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS PARTS OF IND.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD FROM ERN IA
   ACROSS NRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM SRN WI SSEWD INTO WRN
   IND. THE WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
   SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES
   EWD...INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS IND SUSTAINING THE MCS
   EARLY THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE
   SHOULD SUSTAIN A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE
   LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY
   THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   38778880 39428943 40718917 41928831 42198704 41798551
   40838498 39618540 38738633 38498765

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 242245Z - 250045Z
   
   ISOLATED SFC-BASED STORM INITIATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS SRN MO.
   STORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
   THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MO WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 3000
   TO 4000 J/KG. THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED AND ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW
   ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH DISCRETE STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM THIS MORNINGS
   CONVECTION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP SUGGESTING THE INITIAL
   THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
   STEEPEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS...THE WIND
   DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY
   BECOME ENHANCED IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AS A COLD FRONT SAGS
   SWD INTO SRN MO BY LATE THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...TSA...
   
   36529122 36539413 36849462 37469466 38029414 38049213
   37939016 37498953 36818958 36529008

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0624 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...FAR NE IL...WRN LAKE MICHIGAN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 242324Z - 250100Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS ERN WI...FAR NE IL AND WRN
   LAKE MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LINE MOVES IN FROM THE
   WEST. A WW SHOULD BECOME NECESSARY EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   A LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SCNTRL WI AND SHOULD CONTINUE
   MOVING EWD...AFFECTING THE WRN SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATER THIS
   EVENING. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   SUGGESTING THE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED THROUGH THE
   EVENING. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 50 KT MID-LEVEL
   JET NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH IS ENHANCING
   VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 40-45 KT OF 0-6
   KM SHEAR SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
   IN THE LINE. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING OF THE LINE MAY OCCUR AS THE
   LINE APPROACHES THE MORE STABLE AIR OVER WRN LAKE MICHIGAN...LARGE
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS UNTIL THE
   LINE MOVES OFFSHORE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...
   
   42228819 42508906 42938943 43748954 44458943 44858886
   44998816 44798728 44548691 43828658 43018663 42468719

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0967
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0825 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 250125Z - 250300Z
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
   NRN AND WRN OK WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
   WARRANT A WW.
   
   A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS OK AND
   NORTH TX WHERE MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT WITH
   SEVERAL WEAKNESSES IN THE CAP OVER NCNTRL OK AND NEAR THE RED RIVER
   IN NW TX. AS THE CUMULUS CONTINUES TO TOWER...A FEW STORMS MAY
   INITIATE BUT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE LACK OF
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY POINT OF
   INITIATION APPEARS TO BE IN NRN OK NEAR A COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH
   REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...THE MODERATE
   TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE SUGGESTS SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL
   BE LIKELY UPON INITIATION. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   HAIL AND/OR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORM THAT
   DEVELOPS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   37019704 36779656 36379652 35839696 35279803 34949898
   35129963 35569986 36239964 36919880 37029768

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0968
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0859 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IND AND NRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390...
   
   VALID 250159Z - 250330Z
   
   A BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND INTO NRN KY WITH
   A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE THREAT MAY EXTEND
   AS FAR EAST AS LOUISVILLE BUT WEAKENING OF THE LINE IS ANTICIPATED
   AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO DECREASING INSTABILITY.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SWD
   ACROSS WRN IND INTO WRN KY. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED WEST OF
   THE FRONT WITH A TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENT PRESENT ALONG THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LINEAR MCS IS MOVING EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY
   GRADIENT WITH A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE MCS. THE
   UPPER-SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS ENHANCING LIFT AND SHEAR
   WHICH MAY SUSTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
   SO. HOWEVER...AS THE LINEAR MCS MOVES INTO WEAKENING INSTABILITY
   ACROSS NRN KY AND SERN IND...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO
   DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   37458531 37368758 38018819 38568802 38828725 38838574
   38488498 37818492

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0969
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TN INTO NRN AL/NRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392...
   
   VALID 251608Z - 251745Z
   
   CONTINUE WW 392...AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WWS.
   
   TO THIS POINT...INTENSE CONVECTION HAS BEEN GENERALLY CONFINED TO
   AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF NASHVILLE...WITH PROPAGATION OCCURRING ALONG OLD
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CHATTANOOGA
   ...AIDED BY 30 KT MEAN WESTERLY FLOW.  HOWEVER...AS REMAINING
   INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED PARCELS IS ELIMINATED WITH
   FURTHER HEATING NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AN EXPANDING CLUSTER OF
   STORMS SEEMS LIKELY TO EVOLVE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS
   CONVECTIVELY GENERATED SURFACE COLD POOL STRENGTHENS TO THE SOUTH OF
   NASHVILLE.  TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT TO ADVANCE
   TOWARD THE CHATTANOOGA/HUNTSVILLE AREAS...ACCOMPANIED BY BROADENING
   DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL BY 18-19Z...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING RISK
   FOR LARGE HAIL IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   35948662 36118587 35788501 35528469 35268402 35168356
   34448304 33938399 34268530 34508610 34728682 34788768
   35128822 35808866 36338871 36068808 35848736

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MI...WRN OH...MUCH OF IND...PARTS OF SRN/ERN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251700Z - 251900Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  ONE OR
   MORE WWS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 18-19Z.
   
   PRE-FRONTAL MOIST TONGUE EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION IS SEASONABLY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW
   POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   POTENTIALLY STRONG INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  DOWNWARD
   MIXING OF DRIER AIR NEXT FEW HOURS MAY LOWER DEW POINTS SEVERAL
   DEGREES...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
   STILL APPEARS LIKELY.  THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR INTENSE
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASINGLY SHEARED
   REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING UPSTREAM 50 KT 500 MB JET STREAK.
   
   INHIBITION IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...BUT
   IT IS ALREADY IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING.  FURTHER WEAKENING WILL
   OCCUR AS MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION STRENGTHENS
   DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.  INITIATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
   ACTIVITY SEEMS MOST LIKELY FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN INDIANA/ NORTHWEST
   OHIO...POSSIBLY SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...BEFORE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
   OCCURS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO PARTS OF
   SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT.
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY TORNADOES...BEFORE SEVERE THREAT INCREASES
   FURTHER WITH UPSCALE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   40868712 41658595 42348530 42548468 42478409 42138348
   41508329 40928359 40338421 39688534 38758664 38188809
   38228897 39068878 39638860

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0971
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN...NRN MS...NRN AL...NRN GA...WRN AND CNTRL
   SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 392...
   
   VALID 251914Z - 252045Z
   
   CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW TIL EXPIRATION.  SEVERE
   THREAT TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF WW 392 SEEMS LIKELY TO BE MARGINAL
   ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL WWS.
   
   PRESENTLY MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS DEVELOPED TO
   THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THIS APPEARS TO
   HAVE OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WEAK MID/UPPER
   FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
   WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE COLD POOL IS TENDING TO LIMIT SEVERE
   THREAT...BUT INSTABILITY IN WEAKLY SHEARED REGIME ACROSS NORTHERN
   GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SPORADIC
   MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   UPSTREAM...DESPITE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW
   IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE TO 2000 J/KG MAY STILL
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
   TENNESSEE INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
   NORTHWEST GEORGIA.  HOWEVER...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
   BORDER...MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK.
   THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED PULSE EVENTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   35328912 35898840 35998703 35628609 35308481 35148317
   35258219 35038105 34458049 33528139 33008324 33378490
   33528589 33588721 34058863 34558917

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0972
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OH/NCNTRL KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 251921Z - 252015Z
   
   ...ADDITIONAL WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
   OH AND NCNTRL KY...
   
   STORMS ARE DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW OH...WITHIN AN
   ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 30-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. STORM MODE
   WILL BE SUPERCELLULAR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
   SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM ILN INDICATED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. BILLOWS NOTED
   ACROSS ERN OH PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS IT IS STILL
   SLIGHTLY CAPPED THAT FAR EAST...SO WATCH MAY NOT INITIALLY BE ISSUED
   TO OH/PA BORDER.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
   39848146 38018267 38058414 39158447 41258337 41818278
   41938141 41668084 40648110

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0973
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SRN IND
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 393...
   
   VALID 251950Z - 252115Z
   
   ...THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS SRN
   INDIANA...
   
   A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS HAS FORMED FROM SERN IL ACROSS SRN
   PORTIONS OF INDIANA...WITH VERY STRONG ROTATIONAL COUPLETS NOTED
   FROM INDIANAPOLIS AND LOUISVILLE KY RADARS. ADDITIONAL STRONG CELLS
   ARE DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST OF INDIANAPOLIS WITH 2 INCH HAIL
   REPORTED RECENTLY JUST SOUTH OF MUNCIE INDIANA IN HENRY COUNTY.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS
   BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG.
   WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   /PER VWP DATA/...THERE IS AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR TORNADOES.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   37948603 37958886 39618792 40168676 39978513 39528485

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0974
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO/SW KS/ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 252041Z - 252245Z
   
   ...WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE CO/SW KS AND THE TX
   PANHANDLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
   
   TSTMS/TOWERING CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE MOST ROBUST CELLS OVER BACA
   COUNTY CO. TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 60 DEGREES...SO
   MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. THERE IS A WEAK
   IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS SRN CO APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
   THE FACT THAT STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EARLY INDICATES THERE IS
   SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGER
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
   ORGANIZATION. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
   SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
   AND LARGE HAIL. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE...PARTICULARLY AFTER
   00Z-03Z AND STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AFTER DARK. WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...
   
   34620121 33470198 33280318 33850384 35680431 37300411
   37890350 38360309 38430111 36300067

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0975
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL...SRN MO...NRN AR...NE OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 252051Z - 252145Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING CLOSED LOW/SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH IS WELL EAST OF REGION...MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/COOLING
   EVIDENT ALONG SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO
   OVERSPREAD SURFACE FRONT...NOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
   OZARK PLATEAU REGION.  HEATED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS ALONG/
   SOUTH OF FRONT HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   INDICATING MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG.  FURTHER WEAKENING
   OF INHIBITION IN WEAK BUT CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME THROUGH
   22-23Z SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED INTENSE
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH
   MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE
   FOR SUPERCELLS...MAINLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...
   POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
   
   37089485 37259393 37249248 37289142 37618993 37828904
   37078857 36698968 35519194 35429384 35579458 36169571

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0976
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IND...WRN KY...FAR SRN IL...FAR SE MO
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 393...
   
   VALID 252144Z - 252315Z
   
   THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND WRN KY. ALSO...LARGE
   HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A
   TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ACROSS WRN KY.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS WRN TN
   INTO WRN KY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F TO LOWER 70S F.
   AS A RESULT...THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF A LINE OF
   SEVERE STORMS MOVING SEWD THROUGH SRN IND ATTM. REGIONAL WSR-88D
   VWPS CURRENTLY SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE WITH STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW-LCL
   HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE
   SEWD ACROSS FAR SRN IND AND WRN KY NEAR THE OH RIVER THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS EARLY THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN THE LINE. IN
   ADDITION...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
   WIND DAMAGE SHOULD EXPAND SWD ACROSS MOST OF WRN KY THIS EVENING AS
   STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND A LARGE LINEAR MCS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
   REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...LSX...
   
   36658604 36538859 36558984 36969013 37599008 38068952
   38408775 38478620 38438473 38098415 37448407 36978423