Hurricane mistakes

[jasons2k]

Considering the cycles, I'm not sure if basing odds on the last 55 years will give you an accurate measure. Lots of hurricanes, including majors, hit the TX coast before then.

[Extremeweatherguy]

*makes note to consult his hurricane info*

Of course I forgot little respected Brett which hit in 99.

Well Extreme, I understand you tend to look for reasons why we may be under the gun so to speak *and this is not an attack*. Myself and living so close to the coast, I tend to look at the history and reasons why we are no more closer to being hit by a major, then we were last year and the year before that, and so on.

What it comes down to. A major landfall in Texas is somewhat of a rarity. Every 8 or so years in the last 55 tells you that. Throw in the fact that a major seems more prevalent to hit the Middle to Lower Texas coast, than the Upper Texas coast. Beaumont/Pt Arthur/Sabine Pass seem to be the target area for our neck of the woods, and I'm sure they will be just happy to take this year off.

If history is any indication, even after last year, once we get past Chris things would hopefully be in our favor.

I hope you are right. I have had to deal with way too many hurricanes over the last many years, I am ready for a break! I just have the feeling that this year will be different for TX. I have a feeling that the Gulf will get very warm, the shear will lessen further, and we are going to have a full season of trouble. I have two main areas of concern...one comes early in the season where a TS or Hurricane could form in the Gulf or Caribbean and then move toward TX, and then I have another later in the season, when I think a large storm (like Rita) May go over or under FL and work it's way over here. I would agree that Southern and Central TX usually have a bigger threat, but I think the entire coastline will be under the gun this year.

Also >> Keep in mind that many of those C names of the past occured during August or September (back in the weaker hurricane cycle). That same cut-off in today's (stronger) cycle would probably be far into the alphabet.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Considering the cycles, I'm not sure if basing odds on the last 55 years will give you an accurate measure. Lots of hurricanes, including majors, hit the TX coast before then.

Very true! Here is a look at those seasons before 1950:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1940s_maps.htm
^^1940s^^

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/hurricanes/1930s_maps.htm
^^1930s^^

Also: The Hurricane of 1943, which is labeled as a Cat. 1, was probably more like a Cat. 2/3+ storm. It produced 132mph wind gusts at two reporting stations in downtown Houston (something that would be nearly impossible in a Cat. 1).

[Normandy]

If it produced 132 mph wind gusts in downtown it most certainly was more than a 1.

[southerngale]

That list translates to a major hit every 4.5 years on average. Translation: we are overdue.

If you count Rita (which was a major hurricane), then really we are not overdue as a state. As for the Houston area locally though...YES we are overdue.

I know Kelly will crucify me for this, but I don't count Rita. "Between Sabine Pass and Johnson's Bayou" is technically a LA landfall. When splitting regions or states, you don't count landfalls twice; it's one or the other.

I won't crucify you.

Look at the coast though. If the center goes in at the SW tip of Louisiana, due north or NW and it's in Texas in no time. While the center of the eye was going in a few miles east of Sabine Pass, the western and even northern side of Rita was in Texas. It's the way Louisiana kinda goes under Texas. Oh, it's hard to explain...look at a map. So the center goes in a couple of miles east of the TX/LA border and then is in Texas 15 minutes later, yeah, that is technically a Louisiana landfall, but it makes no difference to anyone here. We were still HIT by Rita. The eye tracked right through Jefferson County (along the coast), then north through Hardin County and Jasper County, etc. And unfortunately, those couple of miles it missed by being technically called a Texas landfall didn't stop SE Texas from being devastated, as was SW Louisiana.

So while most of Texas thinks Texas has been spared for years, we just faced the what will probably (hopefully) be the worst disaster in our lives. We know it could have been even worse...we pray that never happens.

[Jim Cantore]

there is no such thing as being "Due" It will happen when it happens, ether in 2006 or 2066 or whenever

[vbhoutex]

Not arguing one way or the other here, but one thing to remember is that the last 50 years have been more of a quiet cycle than an active cycle such as the one we are in now. Not sure those averages are all that is needed to make a determination of frequency. Maybe if you brought in the numbers from the active cycle prior to thie last queit one we would have a better idea of the "averages"?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Not arguing one way or the other here, but one thing to remember is that the last 50 years have been more of a quiet cycle than an active cycle such as the one we are in now. Not sure those averages are all that is needed to make a determination of frequency. Maybe if you brought in the numbers from the active cycle prior to thie last queit one we would have a better idea of the "averages"?

that is a good point. Those trying to compare this upcoming season (and the seasons beyond) with those of the last 50 years are making a mistake. This cycle is NOTHING like the last cycle.

[richtrav]

Texas most certainly got hit last year! The eye went through Texas, there were definitely hurricane force winds in the state, we wuz hit, period. Ground zero, at least back from the coast, seems to be around the TX tourist center near the LA border. Now granted, Beaumont looked no worse than most cities on the SE coast of Florida when I went through last week.

One thing about the majors, the northern part of the Texas coast has had more Cat 4 landfalls than the Central or Southern parts of the state combined, so I certainly wouldn't say they're less prone to a major strike. If anything the surrounding atmosphere up there tends to be "moister" (no deserts nearby) and water temperatures off the coast tend to be warmer in late summer than areas to the south

[Swimdude]

That list translates to a major hit every 4.5 years on average. Translation: we are overdue.

If you count Rita (which was a major hurricane), then really we are not overdue as a state. As for the Houston area locally though...YES we are overdue.

I know Kelly will crucify me for this, but I don't count Rita. "Between Sabine Pass and Johnson's Bayou" is technically a LA landfall. When splitting regions or states, you don't count landfalls twice; it's one or the other.

Rita was most certainly a Louisiana hurricane. My family and I drove from here to Lafayette - and the damage was much much MUCH worse beyond the Louisiana state line. [Lake Charles, etc.] Houston is overdue - however, many of us soon forget how badly Allison [2001] affected most of our lives.

[AussieMark]

between 1940 and 1970

13 Hurricanes visited the Texas coastline
6 of em were majors

in that 31 year period Texas averaged

1 hurricane every 2.38 years
1 major every 5.1 years

1941: #1 (Cat 1)
1942: #1 (Cat 1)
1942: #2 (Cat 2)
1943: #1 (Cat 1)
1945: #5 (Cat 4)
1947: #3 (Cat 1)
1949: #10 (Cat 4)
1957: Audrey (Cat 4)
1959: Debra (Cat 1)
1961: Carla (Cat 4)
1963: Cindy (Cat 1)
1967: Beulah (Cat 3)
1970: Celia (Cat 3)

if u look at the period 1957-1970
6 hurricanes
4 majors

in that 14 year period the averges were
a hurricane every 2.3 years
a major every 3.5 years

[Extremeweatherguy]

between 1940 and 1970

13 Hurricanes visited the Texas coastline
6 of em were majors

in that 31 year period Texas averaged

1 hurricane every 2.38 years
1 major every 5.1 years

1941: #1 (Cat 1)
1942: #1 (Cat 1)
1942: #2 (Cat 2)
1943: #1 (Cat 1)
1945: #5 (Cat 4)
1947: #3 (Cat 1)
1949: #10 (Cat 4)
1957: Audrey (Cat 4)
1959: Debra (Cat 1)
1961: Carla (Cat 4)
1963: Cindy (Cat 1)
1967: Beulah (Cat 3)
1970: Celia (Cat 3)

if u look at the period 1957-1970
6 hurricanes
4 majors

in that 14 year period the averges were
a hurricane every 2.3 years
a major every 3.5 years

notice how close together the landfalls were in the 40s compared to the 50s-70s. This shows how the hurricane cycle was changing.