MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0977
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WRN PA...NRN WV
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 395...
   
   VALID 252304Z - 260030Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
   ERN OH...WRN PA AND POSSIBLY NRN WV. A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF
   WW 395 BY 00Z IF THE STORMS MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS LAKE
   ERIE INTO FAR ERN OH AND NRN WV. WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F. A
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IS ONGOING IN NRN OH ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGER
   INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS WRN PA AS THE
   WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY EWD EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN
   THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. MODERATE VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES SHOWN ON REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SUGGEST A THREAT FOR
   SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS IN
   THE LINE. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   39338096 39628181 40308201 41448158 41818111 42048054
   41897959 41477913 40867911 39917967 39508025

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0978
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...WRN WV...SE OH
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 397...
   
   VALID 260039Z - 260215Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXPAND SEWD ACROSS ERN KY...SE OH AND
   WRN WV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE WILL EXISTS AND A NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   A LARGE LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING JUST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX. AS THE UPPER-SYSTEM
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET SHIFTS ESEWD THIS EVENING...THE LINEAR MCS
   SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN KY...SE OH INTO
   WRN WV. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
   PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE SUGGESTING
   THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE BOWING SEGMENTS
   WHILE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN
   THE LINE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...
   
   36578529 37048599 37528576 38068424 38648358 39838247
   40478206 40548108 39958030 38698085 37308224 36738336
   36638382

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0979
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...NW OK...ERN OK PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 260055Z - 260230Z
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS SW KS AND NW OK OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   THE STRONGER CELLS. A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 0130Z ACROSS
   THE REGION.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
   ESEWD ACROSS SWRN KS INTO FAR NRN OK. SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
   ARE IN THE 50S F. AS THE STORMS MOVE GRADUALLY EWD INTO THE GREATER
   INSTABILITY LATE THIS EVENING...MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY.
   STORM COVERAGE ALONG WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
   INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A
   RESULT...THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT
   PERSIST LATE THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
   
   36299919 36720002 37920141 38500106 38730032 38109892
   37219768 36519788

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1017 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS / NRN OK / SWRN MO / NWRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 396...399...
   
   VALID 260317Z - 260515Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH WIND AND HAIL
   ACROSS KS/OK. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY OVER SWRN
   MO / NWRN AR. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED.
   
   SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP ADVECT UNSTABLE AIR NWD ALONG WARM
   FRONT FROM SRN KS/NRN OK INTO SWRN MO/NWRN AR. THIS WILL ALLOW
   STORMS OVER SRN KS TO PERSIST AND PERHAPS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS
   THEY PROPAGATE EWD...AND EVENTUALLY SEWD INTO NERN OK DUE TO
   STRONGER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL WOULD OCCUR.
   
   FARTHER E...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS WILL PERSIST OVER SWRN MO INTO
   NWRN AR...BEING FED HIGH THETA-E AIR ON VEERING LOW LEVEL JET. AREA
   PROFILERS SHOW FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR CONTINUED ROTATION WITHIN THE
   STRONGER STORMS WITH THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   36489991 37240062 38739971 38769847 38229621 37599289
   37239064 35969163 35809416 36309855

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0981
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN TN...NWRN NC...S-CENTRAL/SWRN
   VA...EXTREME SRN WV...EXTREME SERN KY.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 398...
   
   VALID 260611Z - 260745Z
   
   REMAINDER WW SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 7Z. SVR
   POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH TIME WITH ANY CONVECTION
   STILL LINGERING IN WW BY THEN...THOUGH MRGL WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY
   SHIFT/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NERN TN...EXTREME NWRN NC AND WRN
   VA.  ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM FOR THIS REGION.
   
   PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION NOW EXITING ERN KY SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
   PORTIONS EXTREME SWRN VA AND NWRN TN.  GENERAL WARMING TREND IS
   NOTED IN CLOUD TOPS ON IR IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH EXTREME
   NWRN NC ALSO...BUT PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE IN SUCH AN EVENT APPEARS
   SMALL BECAUSE OF OUTFLOW AIR FROM ACTIVITY FARTHER E.
   MEANWHILE...OCCASIONAL STG OR MRGLLY SVR GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON HIGHER/EXPOSED W FACES OF RIDGES.
   ADDITIONAL MULTICELLULAR TSTMS W AND N CSV MAY BRIEFLY INTENSIFY
   UPON INTERACTING WITH OUTFLOW FROM ERN KY BAND...BUT SVR POTENTIAL
   APPEARS POORLY ORGANIZED ATTM. SCATTERED TSTMS OVER WRN VA ALREADY
   HAVE PRODUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS
   -- THAT IS MOVING SEWD TOWARD VA/NC BORDER W DAN.  TSTMS IN THIS
   REGION SHOULD REMAIN OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER...GENERAL DECREASE
   IN POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF SFC GUSTS IS EXPECTED BECAUSE OF
   STABILIZING EFFECTS OF DEEPENING LAYER OF DIABATICALLY COOLED AIR
   NEAR SFC.  ELEVATED MUCAPES DECREASE FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER
   E-CENTRAL TN TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG IN SWRN VA.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...
   
   36878444 37438286 37398229 37248136 37197853 36507908
   36398013 36148285 35868396 36548447

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN KS AND NRN OK.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 399...
   
   VALID 260712Z - 260845Z
   
   PRIND REMAINDER WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8Z AS SCHEDULED.
   ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   ISOLATED/MRGL SVR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS MAY CONTINUE WITH SOME
   CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
   SEVERE HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY NOW THAT BULK OF TSTM COMPLEX IS
   LOCATED WELL BEHIND ITS OWN GUST FRONT...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO.
    REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS AS OF 7Z SHOW OUTFLOW ARC EXTENDING FROM
   ERN PORTIONS BUTLER/COWLEY COUNTIES KS SWWD ACROSS SRN KAY...NWRN
   NOBLE AND NRN GARFIELD COUNTIES OK.  GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   OUTFLOW HAVE BEEN BELOW 50 KT SVR CRITERIA AT ASOS AND OK MESONET
   STATIONS...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO AS GUST FRONT SURGES FARTHER EWD AND
   SWD AWAY FROM PARENT CONVECTION.
   
   ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH HAIL POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ATOP OUTFLOW
   POOL...ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION FROM COMANCHE/WOODS COUNTY LINE
   EWD.  THESE TSTMS WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA AND
   DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40 KT LLJ...EVIDENT IN VCI
   PROFILER DATA. MUCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG MAY REMAIN INVOF DECELERATING
   CENTRAL PORTIONS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N-CENTRAL OK...WEAKENING TO
   1000-1500 J/KG N OF BOUNDARY OVER SW KS.  LLJ IS FCST TO VEER
   SOMEWHAT AND REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS NW OK...WEAKENING WITH EWD
   EXTENT.  STRONGER STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WITH WWD EXTENT WOULD FAVOR
   NEWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND W OF WRN PORTION OF MCS...AS OPPOSED TO
   TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ORIGINAL MCS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   37089925 37329912 37319838 37519759 37879718 38389711
   38579682 38299624 37219604 36609632 36209717 36179828
   36419942 37009927

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0983
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0316 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN MO...NWRN AR...NERN OK...SERN KS.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400...
   
   VALID 260816Z - 261015Z
   
   PRIMARY THREAT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN RATES
   LOCALLY 2-3 INCHES/HOUR...AS SLOW MOVING TSTMS CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP/TRAIN OVER SOME OF SAME AREAS OF NEWTON/JASPER
   COUNTIES...WITH SOME OF LAWRENCE/MCDONALD COUNTIES POSSIBLY BEING
   AFFECTED AS WELL.  SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS CONFINED TO MRGL
   HAIL...WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE.  BECAUSE OF ISOLATED
   NATURE AND SMALL COVERAGE OF ANY REMAINING SVR THREAT...BULK OF WW
   SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 10Z...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
   LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR 1-2 HOURS ON A COUNTY BY COUNTY BASIS IF
   NECESSARY.
   
   REFLECTIVITY LOOPS AND MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN MO CONVECTION MOVING WWD ACROSS PORTIONS CRAIG
   COUNTY OK...AND LARGER/STRONGER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM KS/OK BORDER
   MCS CONTINUING TO SURGE EWD ACROSS OSAGE/WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
   ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING OR SHORTLY AFTER COLLISION OF
   THESE BOUNDARIES...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR AT 830-845Z  OVER ERN
   NOWATA/WRN CRAIG COUNTIES OK AND MONTGOMERY COUNTY KS. 25-30 KT LOW
   LEVEL FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC -- AS EVIDENT IN HKL PROFILER -- SHOULD
   HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AMIDST RICH LOW
   LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS 11-15C IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND
   PW 1.1-1.4 INCH FROM GPS DATA. ELEVATED MUCAPES 2000-3000 J/KG MAY
   SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NE ACROSS SERN
   KS AS WELL.  MAIN THREAT WOULD BE MRGL HAIL....WITH EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEARS ONLY 20-30 KT.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...
   
   37879574 37599426 36729352 36339388 35889532 36149660
   37139593

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0984
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN TN...EXTREME NRN AL...EXTREME
   N-CENTRAL/NERN MS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 401...
   
   VALID 260857Z - 261030Z
   
   BULK OF REMAINDER OF WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT
   10Z...WITH 1-2 HOUR LOCAL EXTENSION OPTION AVAILABLE IF NECESSARY.
   TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ALONG/BEHIND MUCH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS
   MOVING SEWD/SWD THROUGH AREA BETWEEN CHA-CSV...AND ACROSS NRN AL AND
   SWRN TN.  IR CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND REFLECTIVELY HAS WEAKENED
   OVERALL WITH  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY...EXCEPT FOR STRONG-SEVERE LINE
   SEGMENT NOW MOVING SSEWD ACROSS SWRN TN TOWARD MS BORDER.  THIS
   ACTIVITY HAS BEST ACCESS TO WLY 20-30 KT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF
   MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL WAA.  EXPECT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
   AND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES BASICALLY
   SWD...WHEN COMBINING SEWD TRANSLATIONAL AND SWWD PROPAGATIONAL MCS
   MOTION VECTOR COMPONENTS.  HOWEVER...ORGANIZATION WILL BE
   LIMITED...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPE DIMINISHING
   WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH NRN/CENTRAL MS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...HUN...MEG...
   
   34838994 35498979 35768954 35678902 35098764 35608498
   34728581 34288953

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0985
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0531 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN/S-CENTRAL
   NEB...CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL/NWRN KS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261031Z - 261300Z
   
   OCCASIONAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z FROM ACTIVITY
   STRENGTHENING IN SWATH FROM SWRN NEB SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS
   NWRN/N-CENTRAL KS...AS THIS ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD ON BOTH SIDES OF
   KS/NEB BORDER. MRGLLY SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD
   REMAIN TOO DISORGANIZED TO WARRANT WW.
   
   THERMODYNAMICALLY...NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE AIR MASS IS EVIDENT
   ABOVE SFC IN RUC SOUNDINGS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH 30-40 KT SELY LLJ
   SHOWN BY VWP/PROFILERS AND RELATED MOISTURE INCREASE NOTED IN
   ANIMATIONS OF GPS PW DATA.  ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG ARE
   ROOTED INVOF 700 MB LEVEL...IN NW-SE BAND ALIGNED ROUGHLY FROM
   LBF-SLN.  THIS CORRIDOR REPRESENTS LOW-MIDLEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE
   AND MAY DRIFT EWD WITH TIME...BUT NOT AS FAST AS CONVECTIVE MOTIONS.
    WITH WEAKENING OF BOTH LLJ AND AVAILABLE BUOYANCY...CONVECTION IS
   FCST TO DIMINISH WITHIN 2-3 HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
   
   38109795 39570011 40420144 40970206 41350205 41570046
   39009646 38419634 38059769

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0986
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261542Z - 261745Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS/
   POTENTIAL IS BEING MONITORED.
   
   WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO/
   THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...AND LEADING EDGE
   OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS TO
   BE SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
   ...EVIDENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
   MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...LIKELY WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING
   FOR DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
   THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME. AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
   OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...VERTICAL SHEAR BENEATH 30-40 KT CYCLONIC
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION
   IN STRONGER CELLS.  CAPE IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT COULD LOCALLY
   EXCEED 1000 J/KG...AND MAY SUPPORT A STORMS WITH HAIL APPROACHING OR
   BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...
   
   38118033 38737970 40197840 39297777 38417833 37007978
   35998139 35578243 35838290 36288312 36978195

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0987
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1110 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...HUDSON VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261610Z - 261815Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
   STRONGER STORMS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW YORK/NORTHERN NEW
   JERSEY TOWARD THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME...AHEAD OF WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
   SHIFTING INTO/THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.  THIS
   FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO
   PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE 18-19Z.
   CONVECTION LIKELY WILL BECOME ROOTED IN HEATING BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
   MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DEW POINTS ARE ONLY IN THE 55-60F
   RANGE. MID-LEVELS ARE COOL...BUT NOT PARTICULARLY COLD...AND THIS
   IS NOT SUPPORTING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH SEEM LIKELY TO
   LIMIT CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS FAIRLY
   MODERATE AS WELL...AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE LIMITED
   TO ISOLATED HAIL...WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE
   LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
   
   43017427 44317367 43907318 43477287 42527202 41727221
   41367234 40797314 40907352 40877388 41497395

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0988
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN DELMARVA...SE VA...CNTRL AND ERN NC/SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261757Z - 261930Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY NEXT FEW HOURS. 
   
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION CONTINUES TO
   SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...AND CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION ALONG/TO THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SEEMS A BIT SLOWER
   THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH STRONG HEATING...FROM THE PIEDMONT OF
   THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE MID/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAINS.
   MIXED LAYER CAPE NEAR THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE EXCEEDED 90F...NOW RANGES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG
   ...AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ONCE ACTIVITY FINALLY
   INITIATES.  UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN...OR IN RESPONSE TO WEAKER MID/UPPER FORCING ALREADY
   BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
   AND SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA.  AT ANY RATE...A RAPID INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS POSSIBLE BY THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.
   
   VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION IS RATHER MODERATE IN
   STRENGTH...BUT 30 TO 40 KT MEAN FLOW IN DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  LARGE HAIL
   LIKELY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER CELLS AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
   EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFFECTING NORFOLK
   VA/RALEIGH AND FAYETTEVILLE NC/COLUMBIA SC AND POINTS EASTWARD.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   34648210 35338160 36028026 37727801 38527708 38637548
   38057500 36367541 35107597 34097777 32778031 33498200

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0989
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...NRN AR...PARTS OF ERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 261955Z - 262130Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OR ENHANCED MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY
   CENTER IS READILY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE OZARK
   PLATEAU...SOUTH OF THE SPRINGFIELD MO AREA.  THIS FEATURE IS
   EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK FLOW REGIME EAST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...AND
   GENERALLY PROGRESSING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST.  EVENTUALLY...BUT PROBABLY
   NOT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING...FORCING NEAR CENTER OF CIRCULATION
   MAY BECOME FOCUS FOR ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS.  HOWEVER...IN THE
   SHORTER TERM...INITIATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
   EXPECTED TO ITS EAST AND SOUTH...WHERE ENVIRONMENT ALONG LOW-LEVEL
   THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS BECOME VERY
   UNSTABLE. 
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP...AND WITH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F...DEW POINTS NEAR 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 4000 J/KG.  DESPITE WEAK
   SHEAR....EXTREME CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
   POTENTIAL FOR BOTH INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS IN STORMS...WHICH
   APPEAR POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 21-22Z AS REMAINING INHIBITION IS
   OVERCOME.  THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   
   ..KERR.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...
   
   37429276 37239167 36699026 35999004 35269034 34769092
   34499242 34519367 34579467 35359635 36269674 36069468
   37039374

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0990
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/NE CO/SW SD/WRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 262026Z - 262200Z
   
   ...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH LATER
   THIS AFTN...
   
   AIRMASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED ACROSS
   THE MOUNTAINS WILL MOVE E/NE INTO THE AREA OF GREATER INSTABILITY
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IMPULSE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY ACROSS NRN
   NM/SRN CO WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA AND THIS WILL INCREASE STORM
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY. LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP...AND THE COMBINATION
   OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
   LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS LATER THIS AFTN. THE MAIN
   THREATS WILL BE MICROBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FAVORABLE
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
   
   39320472 41010580 42820623 44290591 44990481 45120261
   44980184 42960184 41740184 40750192 39300289

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0991
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0424 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM/OK PANHANDLE/SE CO/TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 262124Z - 262300Z
   
   ...HIGH BASED STORMS IN WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY HAVE
   STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...
   
   TEMPS HAVE HEATED UP INTO THE 90S IN SE CO/ERN NM TO AROUND 100
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. DEEPER CONVECTION IS
   OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE CO...EAST OF PUEBLO. DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS GENERALLY AROUND 30 KT IN THIS AREA...AND IS WEAKER FARTHER
   SOUTH. LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT. GREATEST THREAT SEEMS TO BE WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE
   DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
   VALUES EXCEED 50-60 DEGREES. THE BETTER FORCING SHOULD BE FOCUSED
   FARTHER NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN NM IMPULSE. HOWEVER...STRONG
   HEATING HAS ERODED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...SO STORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD DOWN THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH INTO
   THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   34190140 32930271 32740364 33390445 36920456 38330473
   38710367 38540177 38150061 36570044

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0992
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0621 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA...NC...SC...NRN GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 402...403...404...
   
   VALID 262321Z - 270045Z
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS COLD FRONT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE
   THERMAL/LEE-TROUGH AXIS REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS ERN NC SWWD TO ERN
   SC. OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL CONVECTION HAS REINFORCED INLAND SEA BREEZE
   PENETRATION ACROSS NERN NC BUT SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY REMAINS CLOSER TO
   THE COAST ACROSS SRN SC/SERN GA. DESPITE DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS ERN
   NC/NERN SC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO
   INDICATE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY REMAINS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH...FROM
   THE SC MIDLANDS NEWD TO SERN VA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL
   SEVERE STORMS COULD FORM ACROSS THESE AREAS AS COLD FRONT SPREADS
   EAST LATER TONIGHT...AND MODEST SHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE REGION.
   
   FARTHER SOUTHWEST...FROM SRN SC INTO GA...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   THAT WEAKER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
   TROUGH/FRONT MAY LIMIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. WITH THE
   EXCEPTION OF ONE SEVERE STORM OVER NRN POLK COUNTY GA...LACK OF
   GREATER STORM COVERAGE...AND DIMINISHING POTENTIAL WITH EWD/SEWD
   EXTENT...WOULD SUGGEST SWRN PORTIONS OF WW 402 MAY BE CLEARED WITHIN
   THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/26/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...
   
   31588133 33378271 33678536 35018545 34788396 37797964
   37397910 37337861 37287592 35747510

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0733 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR....WRN KY...WRN AND MIDDLE
   TN...NRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406...409...
   
   VALID 270033Z - 270200Z
   
   NUMEROUS INTENSE TSTMS PERSIST FROM SERN MO/NERN AR EWD TO MIDDLE TN
   THIS EVENING ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE IN THE PRESENCE OF
   EXTREME INSTABILITY. LATEST BNA/LZK RAOBS APPEAR TO CONFIRM
   SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE THAT SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED. NONETHELESS...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF
   3000 J/KG/ WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO VIGOROUS MULTICELLULAR
   UPDRAFTS PRODUCING SOME HAIL AS WELL AS SEVERE WIND GUSTS. SOMEWHAT
   STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 30KT ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PORTION
   OF WW 409 COULD PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURE WITH CELLS OVER
   MIDDLE TN.
   
   EXPECT SEVERE STORM THREAT TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO SRN PORTIONS OF
   WATCHES 406 AND 409 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LIFT ALONG THE
   DEVELOPING COLD POOL...COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ASCENT
   FROM MCV MOVING EAST FROM AR...MAINTAIN A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...
   
   34338559 35069036 35539285 37039283 37139133 36628806
   36018548

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0994
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND/WRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407...
   
   VALID 270049Z - 270215Z
   
   ...INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND...
   
   COMPLEX OF TSTMS ACROSS WRN SD THIS AFTN HAS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS ROUGHLY
   FROM HEI/GCC/DGW AND WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR NEW STORM
   DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS ACROSS ND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
   SOUNDING FROM BISMARCK AT 00Z SHOWS A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGLY CURVED
   HODOGRAPH IN THE LOWEST 3KM. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN
   THE PROMINENT SEVERE MODE...IT APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE AN
   INCREASING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL BASED ON STRONG UPDRAFT CORES
   OBSERVED FROM LOCAL RADARS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OBSERVED ON
   SOUNDING DATA.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...
   
   43040049 43000383 47520408 48940407 48930036

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0855 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB AND FAR NORTHEAST
   CO/NORTHERN KS INTO EASTERN NEB/NORTHEAST KS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 405...408...
   
   VALID 270155Z - 270330Z
   
   TORNADO WATCH 408 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z. VALID PORTION OF TORNADO
   WATCH 405 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH COULD BE NEEDED
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEB/NORTHEAST KS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   PRIMARY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH
   OF WATCHES 408/405...NAMELY WESTERN NEB/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO NORTH
   CENTRAL KS. 00Z RAOBS/OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AMBIENT ATMOSPHERE
   REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN PRESENCE OF MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR.
   
   ACROSS WW 408...WELL ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS/SMALL SCALE
   BOWS ARE PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AS THIS TIME.
   DEVELOPING S/SW LOW LEVEL JET AND DOWNSTREAM PROPAGATION INTO
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS /REF 00Z TOPEKA RAOB/ APPEARS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT
   LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHEAST
   NEB/NORTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. EXTENT/COVERAGE OF
   SEVERE THREAT AND NECESSITY FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   42610342 42000180 41510065 41469864 41539634 41259580
   41059556 39859550 39159607 39119760 39129920 38790002
   38800095 40040189 40570306

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0996
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1021 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NERN AR...WRN/MIDDLE TN...NRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 406...409...
   
   VALID 270321Z - 270345Z
   
   TSTMS WERE DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY ALONG RESIDUAL STATIONARY
   BOUNDARY ACROSS TN LATE THIS EVENING. WITH RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING IN
   FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE REGION...LACK OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE
   SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AIR MASS
   ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE...AND WEAKLY CAPPED.
   THUS...ONE OR TWO STRONG UPDRAFTS COULD STILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. OVERALL
   POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE
   BEYOND 04Z.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...
   
   34338567 34598792 35028854 35059023 36249004 36228894
   35468657 34978550