91E invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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tailgater
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#81 Postby tailgater » Fri May 26, 2006 12:06 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Poof! It's really feeling the effects of the shear now and is looking less organized. However, I think it is still possible for it to possibly slowly come back a bit by redeveloping consolidating convection a bit, especially since shear - although high at 30KT to 40KT - is slowly decreasing. Other than that, it's still in the ITCZ, and I don't see much else going for it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

I agree it's getting sheared a good bit, but vis sat loop shows it's separating from ITCZ and has very good twisting. I'm not gonna say it has a closed circ yet but it's close.
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#82 Postby tailgater » Fri May 26, 2006 12:13 pm

East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261612
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI MAY 26 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT
FORM...HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI
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#83 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri May 26, 2006 12:16 pm

Wow :eek:
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#84 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Fri May 26, 2006 12:18 pm

No worries. The EPAC always gets things going early. We'll get in the game before you know it. 8-)
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#85 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri May 26, 2006 12:18 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
92E might come from that blob near SA.
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#86 Postby tailgater » Fri May 26, 2006 12:23 pm

Hurricane Hunter 914 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg
92E might come from that blob near SA.

Isn't that a sort of semi permanent feature this time of the year, even if it is it seems a little stronger than usual.
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#87 Postby tailgater » Fri May 26, 2006 12:31 pm

Nice looking on Quikscat---30 to 40 Knot range.
http://152.80.49.216/tc_thumbs/20060526 ... EST.25kts-
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#88 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Fri May 26, 2006 12:49 pm

Not Found
The requested URL /tc_thumbs/20060526.1242.NCEP.wind.91E.INVEST.25kts- was not found on this server.

That appeared when I tried to click on the link above. :uarrow:
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#89 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 26, 2006 12:53 pm

It's almost One-E now! Maybe at the 5:00 pm advisory?
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CHRISTY

#90 Postby CHRISTY » Fri May 26, 2006 1:10 pm

Here is the lastest quikscat on 91E...

Image
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#91 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri May 26, 2006 1:44 pm

it's not quite a closed circulation.
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#92 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Fri May 26, 2006 2:08 pm

I bet a Tropical Storm Watch if/when this is td.1-e i think!!!
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#93 Postby StormScanWx » Fri May 26, 2006 2:11 pm

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO
IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT
FORM...HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
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#94 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri May 26, 2006 2:55 pm

Looks like it got sheared to pieces. :roll:
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#95 Postby tailgater » Fri May 26, 2006 3:54 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Looks like it got sheared to pieces. :roll:

Huh, Looks the best it's looked yet to me.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... MGCtyP.jpg
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#96 Postby tailgater » Fri May 26, 2006 4:20 pm

Check out the GFDL in 42 hrs http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
and maybe some moisture headed to S texas?
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#97 Postby NONAME » Fri May 26, 2006 4:30 pm

GFDL Strenthens it to a Hurricane.
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#98 Postby SouthFloridawx » Fri May 26, 2006 4:36 pm

tailgater wrote:Check out the GFDL in 42 hrs http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
and maybe some moisture headed to S texas?


Nice to see GFDL up and movin around. :wink:

Nice to see fsu model page again too.
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CHRISTY

#99 Postby CHRISTY » Fri May 26, 2006 4:44 pm

yea nice to see that.... :wink:
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#100 Postby NONAME » Fri May 26, 2006 5:03 pm

If it could get just a little more convection this thing would definetly be com TD1-E it has a nice circulation and you can see that on the visible loop but definetly being shear from the northwest.
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