Saturday May 27, 2006

U.S. & Caribbean Weather Discussions and Severe Weather Events

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conestogo_flood
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Saturday May 27, 2006

#1 Postby conestogo_flood » Fri May 26, 2006 5:53 pm

Okay, I wont be here tomorrow and southern Manitoba and North Dakota are under a 30% risk of severe storms. What does it look like? The Weather Network said there could be some tornadoes tomorrow, but I don't know what is going on.

What could happen?
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Re: Saturday May 27, 2006

#2 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri May 26, 2006 10:44 pm

conestogo_flood wrote:Okay, I wont be here tomorrow and southern Manitoba and North Dakota are under a 30% risk of severe storms. What does it look like? The Weather Network said there could be some tornadoes tomorrow, but I don't know what is going on.

What could happen?


I wouldn't be surprised to see them go up to moderate risk...also since the main threat, IMO, is southern Manitoba, this could be the first "hidden" moderate...
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#3 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat May 27, 2006 12:11 am

just wondering, but what does IMO stand for?
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#4 Postby Aquawind » Sat May 27, 2006 6:50 am

In My Opionion :wink:
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#5 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat May 27, 2006 9:02 am

ok thanks!
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#6 Postby conestogo_flood » Sat May 27, 2006 9:14 am

Actually, looks like I don't leave until later today. So, there is a tornado hatched area but it stops at the border. Is it supposed to do that? Or did the SPC just not want to paint over Canada? Haven't turned on The Weather Network yet, someone is watching it. I'm kind of excited, makes me wish I lived there.
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#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 27, 2006 10:15 am

conestogo_flood wrote:Actually, looks like I don't leave until later today. So, there is a tornado hatched area but it stops at the border. Is it supposed to do that? Or did the SPC just not want to paint over Canada? Haven't turned on The Weather Network yet, someone is watching it. I'm kind of excited, makes me wish I lived there.


Yes it is, the NHC doesn't have much control beyond the border. I think southern Manitoba could be in for a significant event today...

A secondary threat area exists in Illinois, but the tornado threat there is minimal.
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#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 27, 2006 10:37 am

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

The greatest risk of severe weather is centered over southwestern Manitoba and extends into North Dakota. Strong tornadoes are possible in that area, and large hail is also a threat.

Image
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#9 Postby conestogo_flood » Sat May 27, 2006 11:46 am

They dropped tornadoes to 5% all over. The Weather Network says large hail is possible this afternoon in southern Manitoba, but it's a crappy on air personality anyway.
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#10 Postby conestogo_flood » Sat May 27, 2006 2:02 pm

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION
FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:00 PM CDT SATURDAY MAY 27 2006.

WATCHES/WARNINGS..NONE AT THE MOMENT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SERN MB LATER TODAY.

THERE IS A SLGT-MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OVER SERN MB MAINLY SE OF A WEX-WEA LINE. STRONG WINDS AND PSBLY LARGE HAIL WILL BE MAIN THREATS ALTHO HI FRLVLS MAY REDUCE HAIL THREAT. MDT SHEAR WITH FAVOURABLE SE SFC FLOW MAY GENERATE SOME TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AS WELL HOWEVER MAIN UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LIFT IS ASOCTD WITH UPPER JET FURTHER WEST OVER SRN SK SO MULTICELLULAR SQUALL LINE
MAY BE MORE LIKELY ALONG TROF LOWERING TORNADO THREAT.
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#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 27, 2006 5:30 pm

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 445 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK
NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 412...

DISCUSSION...EXTREME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN ND SWWD TO SW OF BIS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH SHEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY IN
STRONGEST SUPERCELLS...TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.


...HALES


Where do you get the information from the Prairie/Arctic Storm Centre? There will likely be a Tornado Watch issued for southern Manitoba soon.
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#12 Postby conestogo_flood » Sat May 27, 2006 5:50 pm

I got the information from the PASPC here:

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/pub/data/text/FOCN45/CWWG.TXT
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#13 Postby conestogo_flood » Sat May 27, 2006 6:31 pm

Does anyone think this should be a tornado watch?

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 6:15 PM CDT SATURDAY 27 MAY 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER
=NEW= MORDEN - WINKLER - ALTONA - EMERSON - MORRIS
=NEW= KILLARNEY - PILOT MOUND - MANITOU.


THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR THESE STORMS TO STRENGTHEN
AND MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE WATCH AREA. REMEMBER SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES. THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO
LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION.
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#14 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 27, 2006 6:44 pm

It should be a tornado watch, and it should cover a much larger area - including Winnipeg, Brandon, southwestern Manitoba and surrounding areas.

I would have thrown the tornado watch almost instantly after the SPC did for North Dakota.
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#15 Postby conestogo_flood » Sat May 27, 2006 6:45 pm

That is what I was thinking too. I doubt EC will issue a tornado watch.
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#16 Postby conestogo_flood » Sat May 27, 2006 9:04 pm

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 8:56 PM CDT SATURDAY 27 MAY 2006.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= R.M. OF TURTLE MOUNTAIN INCLUDING KILLARNEY AND LENA
=NEW= R.M. OF STRATHCONA INCLUDING BELMONT
=NEW= R.M. OF RIVERSIDE INCLUDING NINETTE, MARGARET AND DUNREA
=NEW= R.M. OF OAKLAND INCLUDING WAWANESA AND CARROLL
=NEW= R.M. OF SOUTH CYPRESS INCLUDING GLENBORO AND TREEBANK
=NEW= R.M. OF NORTH CYPRESS INCLUDING CARBERRY AND MELBOURNE.

AT 8:50 PM CDT RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CARBERRY TO KILLARNEY MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.
QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT DUNREA AROUND 8:30 PM.


THIS IS A WARNING THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. REMEMBER THAT SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE TORNADOES. LISTEN FOR UPDATED WARNINGS.

NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN
MANITOBA IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN11 CWWG BULLETIN ISSUED
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:

STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER

PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE - HEADINGLEY - BRUNKILD - CARMAN

MORDEN - WINKLER - ALTONA - EMERSON - MORRIS

BRANDON - CARBERRY - TREHERNE

KILLARNEY - PILOT MOUND - MANITOU.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THESE STORMS ARE
STRENGTHENING AND BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
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#17 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat May 27, 2006 9:06 pm

The first tornado warning was also issued in North Dakota...
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#18 Postby conestogo_flood » Sat May 27, 2006 9:47 pm

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 9:34 PM CDT SATURDAY 27 MAY 2006.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:

R.M. OF NORTH CYPRESS INCLUDING CARBERRY AND MELBOURNE

R.M. OF LANSDOWNE INCLUDING ARDEN AND TENBY

R.M. OF WESTBOURNE INCLUDING GLADSTONE AND PLUMAS

R.M. OF LAKEVIEW INCLUDING LANGRUTH AND LAKELAND.

AT 9:30 PM CDT RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS

FROM GLADSTONE TO CARBERRY TO KILLARNEY MOVING VERY SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD. QUARTER SIZE TO LOONIE SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED

WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTH END OF
THE LINE FROM CARBERRY TO KILLARNEY HAVE WEAKENED AND ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.


THIS IS A WARNING THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. REMEMBER THAT SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE TORNADOES. LISTEN FOR UPDATED WARNINGS.

NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN
MANITOBA IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN11 CWWG BULLETIN ISSUED
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER
PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE - HEADINGLEY - BRUNKILD - CARMAN
MORDEN - WINKLER - ALTONA - EMERSON - MORRIS
BRANDON - CARBERRY - TREHERNE
KILLARNEY - PILOT MOUND - MANITOU
STE. ROSE - MCCREARY - ALONSA - GLADSTONE.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS ENDED FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ENDED FOR:

R.M. OF TURTLE MOUNTAIN INCLUDING KILLARNEY AND LENA
R.M. OF STRATHCONA INCLUDING BELMONT
R.M. OF RIVERSIDE INCLUDING NINETTE, MARGARET AND DUNREA
R.M. OF SOUTH CYPRESS INCLUDING GLENBORO AND TREEBANK.
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#19 Postby conestogo_flood » Sat May 27, 2006 10:20 pm

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 10:05 PM CDT SATURDAY 27 MAY 2006.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF WINNIPEG
=NEW= DUGALD - BEAUSEJOUR - GRAND BEACH
=NEW= SELKIRK - GIMLI - STONEWALL - WOODLANDS - ERIKSDALE
STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER
PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE - HEADINGLEY - BRUNKILD - CARMAN
MORDEN - WINKLER - ALTONA - EMERSON - MORRIS
BRANDON - CARBERRY - TREHERNE
KILLARNEY - PILOT MOUND - MANITOU
STE. ROSE - MCCREARY - ALONSA - GLADSTONE.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA HAS
ALREADY PRODUCED QUARTER TO LOONIE SIZE HAIL OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER LINE OF INTENSE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND LAST ALL NIGHT.
LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. REMEMBER SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
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#20 Postby WindRunner » Sun May 28, 2006 3:10 pm

ALREADY PRODUCED QUARTER TO LOONIE SIZE HAIL OVER THE AREA.


I have to ask . . . how big is a loonie?
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