TD One-E,Advisories,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 270943
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
300 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STRONG
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE
WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD BRING THE
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THEREFORE...
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
AND GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...ANY NORTHWARD DRIFT COULD BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1000Z 14.5N 101.5W 25 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 28/0600Z 15.0N 101.5W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/1800Z 15.5N 101.4W 30 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 102.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 31/0600Z 16.5N 102.5W 30 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W 30 KT









WTPZ21 KNHC 270943
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
1000Z SAT MAY 27 2006

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.5W AT 27/1000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.5W AT 27/1000Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 101.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.0N 101.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 15.5N 101.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.5N 102.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 16.5N 102.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 101.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA




The main threat with this will be the floods and mudslides it will cause in Mexico.

[Yarrah]

Hmm, so it begins.
Let's hope it stays away from Mexico.

[P.K.]

[cycloneye]

Infared Image

Almost looks like a storm by only looking at the cloud tops and consolidation.However what is important is where is the Low Level Circulation in relation to the convection.For sure the visible images later on will have the answer.

[tailgater]

Well I guess the shear must have relaxed some, that's a big blow up T-storms.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... dIZqxe.jpg

[Aquawind]

Stay out to sea!

[HURAKAN]

A complete surprise to my eyes. What a night can do to a system. Well, it looks really good to be in a sheared environment!!

[cycloneye]

27/1145 UTC 15.0N 101.1W T2.5/2.5 01E -- East Pacific Ocean


Aletta at next advisorie?

[Derek Ortt]

center is horribly exposed, by about 75-100NM

[Loring]

A complete surprise to my eyes. What a night can do to a system. Well, it looks really good to be in a sheared environment!!

isnt it? remember last year when we woke up to a bigger badder wilma, to our surprise.

[tailgater]

center is horribly exposed, by about 75-100NM

The image loops I'm looking at show maybe half the center is exposed at this time. Shear is defintely blowing the tops off but 75-100nm?http://152.80.49.216/tc_thumbs/20060527.1217.NCEP.wind.01E.ONE.30kts-1004mb.149N.1013W.jpg

[cycloneye]

12:00z Update,30kts,1004 mbs

The 12:00z update increased the winds up to 30kts but short of Tropical Storm Status.

[Derek Ortt]

look at a SWIR pass, center is well east of the convection

[cycloneye]

I will be more out than in here for the most part of today so if this turns out to be a tropical storm anyone can edit the title and this thread can continue open.

[P.K.]

WTPZ41 KNHC 271410
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURROUNDING SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TEMPORARILY
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OS 30 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...RESPECTIVELY. AT 12Z...SHIP H9UY LOCATED ABOUT 100 NMI
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED WESTERLY WINDS OF 21 KT AND A
PRESSURE OF 1006.0 MB.

THE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING OR REFORMING
SLOWLY NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 4 KT CLOSER TO THE
STRONG CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND ONLY A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT...WEAK RIDGING FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CENTRAL MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS...
LIKE NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF...MOVE THE STORM INTO MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO
IN 48-72 HOURS BEFORE TURNING IT SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR
SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL AND A BLEND OF
THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS.

THE CURRENT MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
GRADUAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT FOR A 30- AND 35-KT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY 96 HOURS...AND THIS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IF THE
CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT
THIS TIME... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.1N 101.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 101.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.4N 100.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.4W 45 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 16.8N 101.9W 45 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 16.8N 102.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 01/1200Z 16.8N 103.0W 45 KT

[HurricaneHunter914]

Aletta is almost here.

[cheezyWXguy]

yup

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/vis-l.jpg
I have no idea why you guys say the center is exposed, it looks like convection is covering it 100%. They need to put a Floater on TD One-E.

[CrazyC83]

I think the NHC track is too far to the left. I think there is landfall ahead of it...but it is hard to tell in the Pacific.

Remember also the Pacific season peaks earlier than the Atlantic and the early season is generally more active than the late season.

[Aquawind]

Close up loop looks like it is lopsided in terms of deep convection.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html