MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0997
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1035 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL ND INTO WEST CENTRAL SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407...
   
   VALID 270335Z - 270530Z
   
   VALID PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 407 CONTINUES UNTIL
   05Z...NAMELY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL ND. GIVEN THE 05Z SCHEDULED
   EXPIRATION AND POSSIBILITY FOR A SEVERE THREAT CONTINUING
   OVERNIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE/REPLACEMENT COULD BE NEEDED
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND.
   
   ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY OVER
   THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SHORT TERM 21Z SREF/00Z NAM GUIDANCE AND
   DIAGNOSTIC MASS FIELDS SUGGEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE
   AND/OR EVEN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS ND. THIS
   APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN ND OVERNIGHT IN
   AREAS NORTH OF I-94...IN PRESENCE OF DEVELOPING 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY
   LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME ALONG AND AHEAD OF LOW-MID
   LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
   
   SIMILAR TO 00Z BISMARK RAOB -- 2900 J/KG MUCAPE -- RUC SOUNDINGS
   FEATURE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A
   NOCTURNALLY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER. COUPLED WITH THE DEGREE OF
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ADEQUATE CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORT
   POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY
   HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   48300317 48890225 48719957 47059825 46049932 44799953
   43419973 43180123 44300185 45930189 46260311

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SWRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 410...
   
   VALID 270455Z - 270630Z
   
   ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES SPREADING EAST ACROSS NERN
   KS/EXTREME SERN NEB AHEAD OF WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL AND MESOLOW.
   MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES...AND MASS INFLOW ON
   THE NOSE OF INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET...SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CHANCE
   FOR STORMS ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND
   ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF
   ERN NEB AND WRN IA.
   
   INTENSE STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO BACKBUILD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS
   ACROSS ERN KS /SWRN EDGE OF WW 410/ AND EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE
   HAIL...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND HEAVY RAIN TO ACCOMPANY THIS
   CONVECTION. ELEVATED ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA ALSO LIKELY
   TO INCREASE PER MOST LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY
   RAIN ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN PROXIMITY TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
   OVER PARTS OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO IF STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OUTSIDE OF WW 410.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
   
   39189577 39039781 40349687 42009791 42219780 41409597
   40759501 40209432 39139486

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0999
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ND EXCEPT FOR EXTREME SRN AND EXTREME ERN PORTIONS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 411...
   
   VALID 270752Z - 270945Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED NON-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT OVER WW ATTM...WITH SOME
   POTENTIAL REMAINING FOR ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY TO SVR
   LIMITS...ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
   OVERALL WEAKENING TRENDS DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS AND DIMINISHING
   PROBABILITIES FOR WELL-ORGANIZED SVR EVENT...SOME OR ALL OF WW MAY
   BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION.
   
   SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER CENTRAL ND BETWEEN BIS
   AND SERN PORTIONS LAKE SAKAKAWEA.  COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD THROUGH
   SECONDARY LOW OVER NWRN SD AND INTO E-CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL WY.
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS NEWD FROM ND LOW ACROSS NERN ND
   AND EXTREME SERN MB.  FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY
   SEWD ACROSS SWRN/S-CENTRAL ND BUT REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ELSEWHERE
   FOR ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   MUCAPES DIMINISHING GREATLY FROM SFC FRONT WWD...FROM AROUND 2000
   J/KG ACROSS ERN ND TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG OVER WRN PORTIONS ORIGINAL
   WW.  BUOYANCY DIMINISHES TO NEAR ZERO W OF WEAK BAND OF ELEVATED
   CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT FROM NEAR GDV NEWD ACROSS RENVILLE COUNTY.
   LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAVORABLY STEEP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH
   ELEVATED TSTMS REMAINING POSSIBLE AMIDST 40-50 KT LLJ AS OBSERVED IN
   BIS VWP.  LIFT APPEARS WEAK AWAY FROM FRONTAL ZONE AND SFC
   LOW...HOWEVER....INDICATING LIMITED COVERAGE FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT
   DOES DEVELOP.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
   
   47510412 48170281 48750183 49050115 49019789 48569789
   48549832 48159829 47869855 46599845 46640058 46400059
   46250102 46390136 46610135 46630375 46520405

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1000
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN IA...NRN MO.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 270830Z - 271100Z
   
   LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD 35-40 KT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IA
   AND ADJACENT PORTIONS NRN MO.  OCCASIONAL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.  ATTM...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS
   TOO MRGL FOR WW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   VWP DATA IN PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT INDICATES 30-40 KT SLY
   LLJ...ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE FORCING.
   MOTION OF LINE...THEREFORE...SHOULD BE NEARLY EQUIVALENT TO
   STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VECTOR...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE ATTM.  ONCE
   ACTIVITY MOVES E OF ABOUT I-35...UPSTREAM TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY
   BECOME LESS MOIST...BASED ON 00Z 850 MB ANALYSES...RUC SOUNDINGS AND
   GPS PW DATA.  SRN PORTION OF LINE ASTRIDE MO BORDER MAY SURVIVE
   LONGER SINCE AIR MASS ABOVE SFC APPEARS MORE BUOYANT OVER NRN MO.
   LINEAR ORGANIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE...WHICH NORMALLY WOULD FAVOR
   SEVERE WIND OVER HAIL FOR MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LAYER OF
   RELATIVELY STABLE AIR NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL MITIGATE DOWNDRAFT
   SPEEDS IN MOST AREAS...LEAVING DAMAGING WIND THREAT
   ISOLATED/SPORADIC.  SFC STATIONS OVER WHICH THIS LINE HAS PASSED
   SINCE MO RIVER BEAR THIS OUT...WITH MEASURED SUB-SVR GUSTS IN 22-41
   KT RANGE.  A FEW GUSTS MAY REACH SFC WITH ENOUGH STRENGTH TO DO
   MINOR DMG.  ISOLATED HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM MOST VIGOROUS
   CORES -- MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS IN DIAMETER.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   42249492 42349385 42309260 41369216 39999237 39829447
   41009431

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1001
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MN...WI...NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 271912Z - 272045Z
   
   ...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF UPPER
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
   
   CENTER OF WEAK UPPER VORT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER NERN
   IA...LIFTING NEWD WITHIN THINNING MID-HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
   FROM EARLY MORNING MCS.  ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLOUD
   CANOPY...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
   WARMING IS MAXIMIZED...AND WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED.
   TWO AREAS ARE OF CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS:  1)
   ARCED SHAPED LINE OF DEVELOPMENT FROM DAKOTA COUNTY MN...TO PORTAGE
   COUNTY WI.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IT LIFTS
   NWD THIS AFTERNOON.  2) ANOTHER CONCENTRATED ZONE OF DEEP CONVECTION
   SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY FROM NCNTRL IL...SWWD TO NEAR THE IA/IL/MO
   BORDER.  HIGH INSTABILITY IS SPREADING/DEVELOPING NEWD AS EVIDENT BY
   EXPANDING CU FIELD.  BOTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY
   BY LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...
   
   40859210 42889105 43949325 45189368 46399105 44528788
   41598795 40409132

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1002
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL GA/NRN AL/SC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 272009Z - 272145Z
   
   ...PULSE SVR TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN WITH MAIN THREATS OF ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND LARGE HAIL...
   
   VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
   WITH MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SC
   COASTAL PLAIN INTO NRN GA. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
   STRONG...SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...AND THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER IS WELL MIXED...SO TSTM DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE QUITE
   STRONG. TSTM WIND DAMAGE HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS SC...ALONG
   WITH A FEW REPORTS OF HAIL. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THE AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN
   LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   31988098 33308545 34458803 35018791 35248684 35238384
   35228229 34438056 33477949 32477955 32167996

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0426 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ND...NRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 272126Z - 272330Z
   
   STORM INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN ND
   AND NRN SD. AS STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH
   WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED BY 22Z ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS SCNTRL ND WITH A FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN ND. SFC DEWPOINTS
   SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CAPPING INVERSION NEARLY GONE EAST OF BISMARCK
   AND SWD ALONG THE MO RIVER IN NRN SD. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AGITATED CUMULUS NEAR BISMARCK ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING BETWEEN PIERRE AND
   MOBRIDGE SD. AS THE CAP WEAKENS FURTHER...RAPID THUNDERSTORM
   INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW
   THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALONG AND NORTHWEST
   OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND THE STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
   HAIL WITH VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS. AS
   SUPERCELLS MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS CNTRL AND NERN
   ND...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE
   MOST LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK NEWD PARALLEL TO THE
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   48419813 47209763 45599796 44639912 44540065 45370153
   47330157 48590065 48809931

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1004
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0515 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...WEST TX...WRN OK...SW KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 272215Z - 280015Z
   
   ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3
   HOURS. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS FAR SE
   CO...THE OK PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. EAST OF THE
   TROUGH...A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
   50S F IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE CAPROCK
   IN WEST TX. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THE ERN
   EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT. AS THE CAPPING INVERSION DIMINISHES
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE AND
   MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY. PROFILERS CURRENTLY SHOW 0-6
   KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   IN ADDITION...LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN ADDITION...STEEP LAPSE
   RATES SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
   AND MAY ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
   LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   31830073 31660188 32330194 34430129 37980000 37939868
   36099931

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1005
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0538 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI/NE IL/NW IND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412...
   
   VALID 272238Z - 272345Z
   
   ...SEVERE WATCH 412 MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED INTO PORTIONS OF
   NERN IL INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...
   
   ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS THIS
   AFTN. IN PARTICULAR...STRONG SUPERCELL NOW OVER LEE COUNTY HAS
   PRODUCED STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AND IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY.
   RECENT PROFILER DATA FROM BLUE RIVER WI SHOWS OVER 50 KT OF DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WITH EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL TURNING. LOCAL RADAR SUGGESTS
   ROTATIONAL COUPLETS WITH THIS STORM...SO ISOLD TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
   INSTABILITY DECREASES SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO SEVERE
   THREAT AT LEAST WITH ONGOING STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS
   STORMS MOVE INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...
   
   42798790 42548933 41338949 40878876 40788772 40988716
   41678703 42448720 42698728

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1006
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE WY...WRN SD...FAR SE MT...FAR SW ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 272353Z - 280200Z
   
   A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH
   SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATE AND TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. A WW
   MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR WRN SD AND NE WY IF STORMS CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL WY WITH A
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS NRN WY AND WRN SD. SFC
   DEWPOINTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM THE MID 40S F IN NCNTRL WY
   TO THE UPPER 50S F ACROSS WRN SD. AS A RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY
   IS IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPING STORMS THIS EVENING.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY IN THE 45 TO 55 KT RANGE WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
   SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. ALTHOUGH LCL
   HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...STRONG DIRECTIONAL
   SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE THREAT
   MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST SUPERCELLS EARLY THIS EVENING.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/27/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...
   
   43570227 43110306 43030379 43210481 43760525 44430544
   45370502 46090418 46260281 45850173 45320144 44500154

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0804 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE IA...SE MN...WRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 280104Z - 280300Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR NE IA...SE MN AND WRN WI. LARGE HAIL
   AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS WRN IA
   INTO SE SD. STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH
   STORMS INITIATING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN NERN IA.
   ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING IN WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS
   CNTRL WI. THE STORMS ARE FORMING BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAY
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW
   MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A
   MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER SRN WI. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
   SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   43099107 42909241 43499376 44529419 45509338 45789172
   45129035 44029008

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...UPPER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 280412Z - 280615Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   ACROSS ERN WI AND UPPER MI. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
   NRN MN AND WI WITH AN MCS ONGOING ALONG THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH. THE
   STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE NERN EDGE OF A GRADIENT OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY NEAR A MID-LEVEL JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. THE JET IS ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH REGIONAL
   PROFILERS SHOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KT. THIS MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT ALTHOUGH MULTICELL MODE
   SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINANT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
   DECREASES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT SHOW STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH COMBINED WITH THE SHEAR SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...ARX...
   
   43588809 44018986 45248996 45958916 46388810 46218708
   45738640 44988642 44258696

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN MT...WRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 280427Z - 280630Z
   
   A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND WRN ND
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR
   WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS.
   
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW OVER ERN WY WITH A STATIONARY
   FRONT EXTENDING NEWD INTO WCNTRL ND. NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY...SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 500 TO
   1000 J/KG AS SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE
   IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING AN MCS ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT ACROSS ERN MT AND WRN ND OVERNIGHT. AS STORMS
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE...THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL
   SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.
   ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND THE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL THREAT AND/OR
   STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 05/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...
   
   46450381 46570544 47270589 48020581 48540548 48930478
   48870317 48380244 47190255

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KY..TN..AL..GA..GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 281730Z - 281900Z
   
   STRONGER STORMS MAY BRIEFLY BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THIS
   REGION...WITH WET-MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE.  NO WATCH IS ANTICIPATED.
   
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELD INCREASING FROM SOUTH
   CENTRAL KY INTO CENTRAL AL...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FL.
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 70S ALONG THIS ZONE...WITH MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS DEEP
   MOISTURE ALONG THIS AXIS.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
   DEVELOP OVER KY/TN...AND OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN THE NEXT
   ONE TO TWO HOURS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FL.  UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED
   OVER THIS AREA...WITH STAGNANT MID LEVEL WINDS AND EXTREMELY WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEAR STATIONARY STORMS
   CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  PULSE-TYPE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE
   THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WET-MICROBURSTS AND HAIL.
   
   ..HART.. 05/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...MRX...FFC...TAE...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...PAH...
   
   37228734 37038582 35728538 34168579 33188513 32778380
   32588239 31698116 31138125 29918130 30178290 30828411
   31668603 32758696 34358731 35978731

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1011
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW TEXAS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282006Z - 282200Z
   
   PULSE-TYPE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS ACROSS SW TEXAS...WITH A COUPLE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS
   PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES IN SW TEXAS INCREASING OVER
   THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO AT OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG...AND VISIBLE
   SATELLITE INDICATES A CU FIELD DEVELOPING IN THIS UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...WITH STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRO.
   GIVEN THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
   PULSING IN NATURE AND RATHER STATIONARY AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW
   OVER THE AREA IS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...THERFORE...STORMS WILL MAINLY BE
   DOMINATED BY THE VERY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE. SOME STORMS
   COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE MATURE PHASE OF THEIR CYCLE
   WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AND MICROBURSTS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS QUICKLY COLLAPSE. ADDITIONALLY...LOCALIZED
   HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 05/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
   
   30059971 29179890 27869832 27409752 26949749 26199742
   26289811 26479884 26899922 27529939 27959983 29760116

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES...SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282011Z - 282215Z
   
   ...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE...
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED RAPIDLY THROUGH THE MID 90S
   ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS.
   LATEST DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS SUGGEST LOWEST 3 KM LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR
   DRY ADIABATIC ALONG THE DRYLINE WHICH STRETCHES ALONG THIS AXIS.
   LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORT THESE TRENDS WITH AN EXPANDING CU
   FIELD ALONG THIS CONFLUENCE ZONE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   MODIFIED INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM BASES NEAR
   650 MB.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND
   SUBSTANTIAL DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
   DOWNBURSTS WITH MULTICELL UPDRAFTS THAT DRIFT NEWD OFF THE DRYLINE
   LATER THIS EVENING.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   35450136 37229995 37169908 34020051 34260161

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN WY....NEB PNHDL....WRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282242Z - 290045Z
   
   CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE...TSTMS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SERN WY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH/MID LEVEL SPEED MAX EMERGES FROM THE LARGER SCALE WRN U.S.
   TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SEVERE
   TSTM WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
   
   LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIMITED INSTABILITY
   WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS ERN WY AND THE NEB PNHDL.
   HOWEVER...SUFFICIENTLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW...COUPLED
   WITH ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT DUE TO STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT WAS
   RESULTING IN MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NEB
   AND SWRN SD ATTM. CONVECTION NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT OVER SERN
   WY WILL MOVE INTO THIS AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE BLACK
   HILLS WILL EXIST WITHIN A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
   LEVEL ELY/NELY FLOW TOPPED BY INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN
   MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR AND FORCING FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
   THROUGH TONIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND HIGH
   WINDS SHOULD INCREASE. ACTIVITY COULD POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE
   MCS ACROSS WRN SD THROUGH THE EVENING AND A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY AT
   THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   41630241 41400370 41820446 43120442 44940372 45650260
   45580135 44680025

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1014
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0642 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SCNTRL/SERN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 282342Z - 290115Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR STORM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING OVER PARTS
   OF NERN NEB INTO SERN SD THIS EVENING. WHILE CAP REMAINS QUITE
   STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM IN THE
   AREA WILL QUICKLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
   WINDS POSSIBLE.
   
   LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS TRIPLE-POINT LOW NEAR ONL WITH DRY LINE
   EXTENDING SWD AND COLD/STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NNEWD INTO SERN
   SD. AIR MASS NEAR THESE FEATURES WAS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
   DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. CAP
   REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE REGION BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   INHIBITION HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS WEAKEST POINT GIVEN STRONG
   HEATING AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE LOW/DRYLINE AND
   FRONT. STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO AID STORM INITIATION NEAR THE
   BOUNDARIES APPEARS SUBTLE ATTM WITH MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT FOCUSED
   FARTHER WEST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF MODEL
   GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   IF DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN
   AMOUNT OF CAPE AVAILABLE TO UPDRAFTS BREACHING THE CAP. AT
   PRESENT...STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS EXISTS
   NEAR THE FRONT AND LOW AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
   THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE EVENING. WHILE PROBABILITY FOR
   WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IF SEVERE STORM FORMATION
   BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/28/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...
   
   44779731 44689796 43459879 42999895 42589911 41929861
   42219757 43229706

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1015
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0717 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX...WRN OK...SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 415...416...
   
   VALID 290017Z - 290115Z
   
   A FEW VIGOROUS STORMS CONTINUE ALONG DRYLINE FROM THE ERN TX PNHDL
   SWD TO THE RIO GRANDE THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
   BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY DIURNAL FORCING/DESTABILIZATION AND COULD
   STILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS FOR A COUPLE
   MORE HOURS. POCKETS OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGER
   INSTABILITY EAST OF THE ONGOING STORMS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE
   ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WHILE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING EWD. PRESENTLY...
   GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WITH CELL MERGERS OCCURRING
   OVER REAGAN AND DONLEY COUNTIES IN TX.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
   
   30329956 30160182 29960238 33610150 36250090 38239989
   38249848 36399850 35089863 35019932 34379912 34229947

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1016
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0922 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...SD...SRN ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 417...
   
   VALID 290222Z - 290415Z
   
   SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN NEB AND SRN/CNTRL
   SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL CAN
   BE EXPECTED. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN AN HOUR OR SO FOR
   AREAS EAST OF WW 417.
   
   SEVERE MCS HAS EVOLVED FROM ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION RACING ENEWD
   ACROSS NWRN NEB AND SWRN SD THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS SEVERE HAIL
   REPORTS AND HIGH WIND GUSTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO STRONGER LOW LEVEL
   INSTABILITY OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ON THE
   NOSE OF DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON MOIST
   AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SUSTAIN STORMS IN A VERY STRONGLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SD/NEB. EXPECT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS...AND
   POSSIBLY EVEN EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...TO MOVE TO THE ERN EDGE OF WW
   417 OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   42559959 41960298 44880315 45050272 46389857 45439817