Memorial Day chase

[dean]

SPC has a 30% hatched area for most of eastern and southeastern areas of Minnesota. looked at models, GFS showed a LI of -10.4 tomorrow right over the Twin Cities. GFS and ETA had a hard time agreeing on winds, but i would say that maybe around New Ulm or areas around there would be a good target, but i will check models later tonight and in the morning again to see if i can pin down a target city.

[chizniz16]

Hey Dean, New Ulm eh, you will be on my storm chasing territory then. I always end up there when chasing in the summer months. I am 15 minutes away so maybe we will meet up if you are truely coming. Good luck and hopefully the outlook gets better for down here.

[dean]

Hey Dean, New Ulm eh, you will be on my storm chasing territory then. I always end up there when chasing in the summer months. I am 15 minutes away so maybe we will meet up if you are truely coming. Good luck and hopefully the outlook gets better for down here.

that'd be cool if we met up, just not sure exactly here i'm going. I picked New Ulm cus after a quick look at models, for now, that looks to be an alright starting point. but i'm still not 100% on any plans right now.

[chizniz16]

What models are you looking at exactly? I don't know much about svr wx dynamics models so I am just looking at all the normal ingrdiants, but nothing is showing up in Minnesota. The only thing I know to look at is cape and that dosent have a 24 hour range I dont think. Thanks

[dean]

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

good site for models. i look at mostly GFS and ETA (others call it NAM). anyways, it has all the basic things you need in a model (i'm not great with models but i know some things) this morning when i checked it looked like there was going to be nice moisture in central MN down in to IA, but that may have changed by now. Upper level winds look to be a little weak at some parts of the atmosphere, but like i said before GFS had a -10.4 LI right over the Twin Cities. i know this might not help a whole lot, but if you have any questions just ask and i'll find an answer.

[wx247]

Good luck to both if you if you venture out today. And as always... be safe!

[dean]

thanks garrett, the SPC shifted the best threat for severe weather JUST north of the Twin Cities, so i have also shifted my target city north, to about St. Cloud, doesnt look like a bad starting point.

[CrazyC83]

Could daytime heating convective activity be an issue?

[CrazyC83]

I think the best chance for severe weather lies in northern and northwestern Ontario...which is certainly not storm chasing country (few roads, many hills and forests)

[chizniz16]

I am not impressed with this at all so far. The outbreak so far has been in the wrong spot and everything is popping up further east than expected. Im in a svr t storm watch on the western edge, pretty depressing that nothing is happening.

[CrazyC83]

I am not impressed with this at all so far. The outbreak so far has been in the wrong spot and everything is popping up further east than expected. Im in a svr t storm watch on the western edge, pretty depressing that nothing is happening.

That's because everything has been north of all of us...in far northern Ontario. They had Canada's first tornado warning of 2006 up there (it has since been cancelled, unsure if it touched down).

A CELL JUST NORTHWEST OF TIMMINS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. A TORNADO COULD BE ASSOCIATED. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT THE TIMMINS AREA OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR. TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN12 CWTO BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN12 CWTO BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.

A CELL JUST NORTHWEST OF TIMMINS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. A TORNADO COULD BE ASSOCIATED. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT THE TIMMINS AREA OVER THE NEXT HALF HOURS. TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS.

[conestogo_flood]

I am not impressed with this at all so far. The outbreak so far has been in the wrong spot and everything is popping up further east than expected. Im in a svr t storm watch on the western edge, pretty depressing that nothing is happening.

That's because everything has been north of all of us...in far northern Ontario. They had Canada's first tornado warning of 2006 up there (it has since been cancelled, unsure if it touched down).

A CELL JUST NORTHWEST OF TIMMINS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. A TORNADO COULD BE ASSOCIATED. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT THE TIMMINS AREA OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR. TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN12 CWTO BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN12 CWTO BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.

A CELL JUST NORTHWEST OF TIMMINS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. A TORNADO COULD BE ASSOCIATED. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT THE TIMMINS AREA OVER THE NEXT HALF HOURS. TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS.

I haven't heard about any tornado reports. It's pretty rural up there, so it probably went unnoticed. Even if there was one, I doubht EC would check the Fujita rating. Too far north.

[conestogo_flood]

Wouldn't "St. Louis County" have done the trick?

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
531 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
EAST CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
NORTHEAST ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
547 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH MN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEAST ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

[wx247]

hahaha... weird.

[CrazyC83]

I am not impressed with this at all so far. The outbreak so far has been in the wrong spot and everything is popping up further east than expected. Im in a svr t storm watch on the western edge, pretty depressing that nothing is happening.

That's because everything has been north of all of us...in far northern Ontario. They had Canada's first tornado warning of 2006 up there (it has since been cancelled, unsure if it touched down).

A CELL JUST NORTHWEST OF TIMMINS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. A TORNADO COULD BE ASSOCIATED. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT THE TIMMINS AREA OVER THE NEXT HALF HOUR. TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS. MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN12 CWTO BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS. TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY PRECAUTIONS. NOTE..A SUMMARY OF ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS AVAILABLE IN THE WWCN12 CWTO BULLETIN ISSUED IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THIS BULLETIN.

A CELL JUST NORTHWEST OF TIMMINS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ROTATION. A TORNADO COULD BE ASSOCIATED. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT THE TIMMINS AREA OVER THE NEXT HALF HOURS. TORNADOES ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THESE REGIONS.

I haven't heard about any tornado reports. It's pretty rural up there, so it probably went unnoticed. Even if there was one, I doubht EC would check the Fujita rating. Too far north.

You're probably right. 80% of tornadoes in the region go unnoticed as they simply hit trees without touching any civilization.

There is some mighty severe weather along the fronts though...it's also exploding along the I-55 corridor...

[CrazyC83]

I'm under a severe thunderstorm warning now - and the radar just went down! I can only guess right now...

[conestogo_flood]

Ottawa is under a severe thunderstorm watch right now. Severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect for Renfrew and southern Nippissing Counties. I don't think those storms are even that intense anyway, it'll be dropped in no time probably.

[conestogo_flood]

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:31 PM EDT MONDAY 29 MAY 2006.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF OTTAWA
=NEW= GATINEAU
=NEW= PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL
=NEW= SMITHS FALLS - PERTH - EASTERN LANARK COUNTY
RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY
DEEP RIVER - WHITNEY - EASTERN ALGONQUIN PARK.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEAR PETAWAWA WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THEY APPROACH OTTAWA HOWEVER
THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
BARRY'S BAY - KILLALOE
RENFREW - ARNPRIOR - CALABOGIE
PETAWAWA - PEMBROKE - COBDEN
DEEP RIVER - WHITNEY - EASTERN ALGONQUIN PARK.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ARRIVING OVER PETAWAWA AS SEEN ON
RADAR AT 9:20 PM. THESE CELLS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD.

[dean]

well, i finally went on my first chase ever, and i went with my mom. Mom drove and i basically did the rest. We headed up towards Milaca, MN around 2 in the afternoon, about the same time a Severe Box went up for NE MN, including the area we were heading. We ended up going to Ogilvie, MN, looked around, listened to the weather radio for warnings, and what do you know? a severe storm to our southwest around the St Cloud area, and farther to out north, around Brainerd (mind you we didn't have radar or a Ham Radio). We heard that hail was actually reported in Clearwater, south of St Cloud, but we could see the anvil of the storm west of Brainerd, so continue north. We hear on the weather radio that a severe storm had developed on the south side of Lake Milleacs, so that's the one we set our hearts on. We get up to Isle, MN (SW side of Lake Milleacs). The storms were only moving 15-25 mph, so we had to wait a while. We saw a poorly orgnaized shelf cloud, but it looked pretty cool as it was coming over the lake. the storm ends up going a mile or two north of us (again, we didn't have radar), but got some nice pics of the shelf cloud. The whole time we were watching the storm over the lake, you could see that structure of the storm from St Cloud off to the south of us, so since our original storm went north of us (and we had to get back south to get home), we decide to try to chase the cell from St Cloud, but by the time we got close, the cell was well off to the east of us, plus both of us were tired, but i did get some nice shots of the structure. So a summary, my first chase ever, found out that there is a lot more that goes into chasing than i thought, got a cell around Isle, MN, but didn't get the core, got pics of the second cell's structure, and came home. Oh, by the way, total chase miles today is 203.

[wx247]

Congrats on your first chase!!!