South Dakota to Manitoba Sunday

[conestogo_flood]

Central South Dakota is under a 5% tornado risk, and so is northeast North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, southwest northern Ontario and southeast Manitoba.

What do you think? Better chance of tornadoes today than yesterday?

[dean]

not sure, have to keep an eye on it, doesn't look to be a big day, only a 15% risk for hail/wind.

[conestogo_flood]

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES ISSUED BY
THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 2:00 PM CDT SUNDAY MAY 28 2006.

WATCHES/WARNINGS..WILL ISSUE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR SWRN MB/SERN SK SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...AT 18Z SFC LO OVR CNTRL NORTH DAKOTA WITH TROF
EXTENDING NWD THRU SRN MB. STG LO LVL JET OVER NORTH DAKOTA
INTO SRN MB AND NWWD INTO CNTRL SK. THERMAL RIDGE OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND SRN MB WITH 10C ISOTHERM AT 700 MB OVER SRN SECTIONS OF LAKE WINNIPEG ACROSS LAKE MANITOBA TOWARDS SWRN MB. AMS IS STRONGLY CAPPED OVER SRN MB HOWEVER 30-40 KTS LO LVL JET MAY HELP TO TRIGGER ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER SWRN MB IN AREAS WHERE CAP IS WEAK. CAPES WILL BE NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS EVENING OVER SRN MB.

WE ARE WATCHING AREA IN NORTH DAKOTA VCNTY SFC LO. SO FAR AMS IS SO WARM AND CAPPED, THAT SFC BASED CONVECTION IS SUPPREST. LINES OF CU ARE WEAK, HOWEVER IS CAP BREAKS VERY STRONG TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AND WITH FAVOURABLE WIND PROFILE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT CB WITH TOPS AT 48 THOUSAND FEET HAIL 20-40 MM AND WIND OVER 80 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE.

[conestogo_flood]

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:20 PM CDT SUNDAY 28 MAY 2006.
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WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= BRANDON - CARBERRY - TREHERNE
=NEW= KILLARNEY - PILOT MOUND - MANITOU
MELITA - BOISSEVAIN - TURTLE MOUNTAIN PROVINCIAL PARK
VIRDEN - SOURIS
MINNEDOSA - NEEPAWA - RUSSELL - RIDING MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK.


INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EVENING.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

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==DISCUSSION==
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL HELP TO DEVELOP
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA IN
THE EVENING.

[conestogo_flood]

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 1:38 PM CST SUNDAY 28 MAY 2006.
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WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
=NEW= MOOSOMIN - GRENFELL - KIPLING - WAWOTA
=NEW= CARLYLE - OXBOW - CARNDUFF - BIENFAIT - STOUGHTON.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL HELP TO DEVELOP
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
SASKATCHEWAN THIS AFTERNOON.

[conestogo_flood]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
510 PM MDT SUN MAY 28 2006

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 510 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

[wx247]

Interesting to see the differences between Canada's system and the American one.

Some very impressive cells across Nebraska and South Dakota this evening, plus a few lone (but large) severe cells in Texas, too.

[conestogo_flood]

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 8:36 PM CDT SUNDAY 28 MAY 2006.

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WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
CITY OF WINNIPEG
STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER
DUGALD - BEAUSEJOUR - GRAND BEACH
SELKIRK - GIMLI - STONEWALL - WOODLANDS - ERIKSDALE
PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE - HEADINGLEY - BRUNKILD - CARMAN
MORDEN - WINKLER - ALTONA - EMERSON - MORRIS
BISSETT - NOPIMING PROVINCIAL PARK - PINE FALLS
WHITESHELL - LAC DU BONNET - PINAWA
SPRAGUE - NORTHWEST ANGLE PROVINCIAL FOREST
BRANDON - CARBERRY - TREHERNE
KILLARNEY - PILOT MOUND - MANITOU
MELITA - BOISSEVAIN - TURTLE MOUNTAIN PROVINCIAL PARK
VIRDEN - SOURIS
MINNEDOSA - NEEPAWA - RUSSELL - RIDING MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK
STE. ROSE - MCCREARY - ALONSA - GLADSTONE
DAUPHIN - ROBLIN - WINNIPEGOSIS
ARBORG - HECLA - FISHER RIVER - GYPSUMVILLE - ASHERN
BERENS RIVER - LITTLE GRAND RAPIDS - BLOODVEIN - ATIKAKI.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA WILL HELP TO DEVELOP
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MANITOBA THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.