How likely is it for the Bermuda High to actually move east?

[tgenius]

As everything I've read, it leads me to believe that the Bermuda High is forming west, just as it did in 2004 and 2005 (read:Makes us Floridians a lil uneasy ) So my question is, how often does the Bermuda High actually shift back east once it has already built across westward?

[gatorcane]

The Bermuda High is an ephemeral and transient feature that shifts it's position and changes it's strength routinely. It is quite possible that even though the High has built far westward, it could just as easily retreat back to the East. It's all timing. Regarding the media - they are overhyping this feature at this point. It was showing signs of building strong in March but it has retreated far to the east in April and May - now just starting to build in again.

[tgenius]

During the 05' season, the Bermuda High did not shift east after it built west correct?

[gatorcane]

In 2005, the Bermuda High was generally weak but at times it built west blocking peninsula Florida from getting hit. One example is Dennis - which missed South Florida to the south in July. Katrina developed from TD #10 which because TD #10 remained weak - did not get pulled northward when it was north of the Greater Antilles. The Bermuda High in place was not strong enough to keep a developed system from turning early. Rita also missed South Florida due to strong ridging though. But Wilma hit South Florida from the SW due to more troughiness in place as the ridge shifted east.

Bottom-line. It is all timing.

[tgenius]

Thanks Chris.. I appreciate you explaining things.. I'm just trying to get a handle on the science of everything behind this..sorry for being a newb

[gatorcane]

Thanks Chris.. I appreciate you explaining things.. I'm just trying to get a handle on the science of everything behind this..sorry for being a newb

no problem, anytime

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Bottom-line. It is all timing.

Truer words were never spoken. We all have to keep this in mind. People can say whatever they want in advance about the tracks that will be this season, but it all comes down to the timing of each storm and it's interactions with neighboring weather systems.

[SouthFloridawx]

Very good explination boca_chris

[Rainband]

In 2005, the Bermuda High was generally weak but at times it built west blocking peninsula Florida from getting hit. One example is Dennis - which missed South Florida to the south in July. Katrina developed from TD #10 which because TD #10 remained weak - did not get pulled northward when it was north of the Greater Antilles. The Bermuda High in place was not strong enough to keep a developed system from turning early. Rita also missed South Florida due to strong ridging though. But Wilma hit South Florida from the SW due to more troughiness in place as the ridge shifted east.

Bottom-line. It is all timing.

I agree 100%

[MiamiensisWx]

I think this will be a year in which timing on troughs and steering patterns - and if a storm is out there and in a specific position - will be everything.

The setup and synoptic scenario(s) shown would also indicate a potential threat to the Carolinas, northeastern U.S. and New England (especially Long Island to Cape Cod area), and/or eastern Canada if it stayed and lasted through the summer or emerge as a player in August/September/October, with a mean Canada ridge and generally negative NAO pattern and steering currents acting as reinforcing steering for storms around the mean Azores-Bermuda High (east-central Atlantic ridging synoptic) west-northwest and eventually northwestward. However, the current setup patterns also indicate the possibility that we may see a strong establishment of the Bermuda High in the western and west-central Atlantic beginning around late June or during July (most likely during July). Past climatology and past setups/analogs - as well as factors - indicate this. If that scenario occurs, it could provide favorable steering currents and upper-level support for storms to strengthen and threaten the Carolinas and increase the risk of an east hit/threats to southeast Florida. This would be a particularly dangerous setup for the southeastern U.S. coast. Let's see how the NAO, SSTs, and PDO/PNA - as well as other factors - play out.

Bottom line is that it is still too early to tell. I think this applies for most - if not all - years, if you think about it. I think the potential may be there for a potentially dangerous setup to start later this year, especially around July; otherwise, I think the other (eastern U.S. troughiness like 1996, 1999, and similar years) may take place. Still, I think the potential is here that, even though we are not seeing it now, that a dangerous setup of the Bermuda High getting well established in the western and west-central Atlantic, especially starting to unfold and establish around July, may occur.

[LAwxrgal]

In 2005, the Bermuda High was generally weak but at times it built west blocking peninsula Florida from getting hit. One example is Dennis - which missed South Florida to the south in July. Katrina developed from TD #10 which because TD #10 remained weak - did not get pulled northward when it was north of the Greater Antilles. The Bermuda High in place was not strong enough to keep a developed system from turning early. Rita also missed South Florida due to strong ridging though. But Wilma hit South Florida from the SW due to more troughiness in place as the ridge shifted east.

Bottom-line. It is all timing.

Agreed 1000% and I touched on this in another post.

Unfortunately for us, Katrina and then Rita exploded in the boiling hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico, so in a sense they were "homebrew" systems. Will this pattern of homebrew monsters persist?

[tgenius]

With what frequency does the Bermuda High shift? Every week? Month? Is there a usual frequency to it (Yes, I know its unpredictable weather, lol)

Florida CANNOT take another serious hit or the insurance industry will pull out of FL

[george_r_1961]

In 2005, the Bermuda High was generally weak but at times it built west blocking peninsula Florida from getting hit. One example is Dennis - which missed South Florida to the south in July. Katrina developed from TD #10 which because TD #10 remained weak - did not get pulled northward when it was north of the Greater Antilles. The Bermuda High in place was not strong enough to keep a developed system from turning early. Rita also missed South Florida due to strong ridging though. But Wilma hit South Florida from the SW due to more troughiness in place as the ridge shifted east.

Bottom-line. It is all timing.

Agreed 1000% and I touched on this in another post.

Unfortunately for us, Katrina and then Rita exploded in the boiling hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico, so in a sense they were "homebrew" systems. Will this pattern of homebrew monsters persist?

IMO had Katrina not made that SW turn over the SE GOM she would not have become the monster that she was. Its way to early yet to say whether or not we have a repeat of last year with almost no CV activity and powerful storms forming close to the US.

[gatorcane]

thanks all for your strong agreement . I would love to see a Bermuda High setup east of Bermuda this summer that would cause all storms to be deflected out to sea. You can guess where the Bermuda High is in these two active years which show two contrasting setups

1995 => shifted more east
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

2004 => shifted more west
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[ronjon]

If we look at the increase in activity that started in 1995, we had this prominent trough along the east coast that deflected many storms out to sea for about the first 7 or 8 years. Although we had 27 major hurricanes form from 1995-2002, only 3 made landfall (only 22% of normal). Since that time, the Atlantic Ridge has generally strengthened and we have paid the price the last couple of years. To soon to tell this year, but these patterns tend to become established for more than 2 years. I am talkin climatologically not day to day weather events. Boca Chris is quite correct in that the High gets strong and then weakens due to troughs and the prevailing westerlies that periodically intrude into the sub-tropical US. Look for signs in the polar jet stream over the eastern US - if it stays along the US-Canadian Border, the Bermuda High will be strong. If we have cold fronts dipping frequently into the SE US, then we may have a situation like 1995. Just because we have a strong High doesn't mean its all bad for Floridians - these highs can block NW movement into the peninsula and keep storms south of the state if the High is really strong (i.e. Katrina, Rita).

[tgenius]

I hate to break this to you, but Katrina went through Florida..

[CHRISTY]

I think 2006 will look very similar to 2004 as far as hurricane tracks...the bermuda high is going to really establish itself now in late june and in july,my guess is in 2006 we will not see as many storms as we did in 2005 but this year might be very active with multiple landfalls in the US.

[Ivan14]

I could not of said it better my self CHRISTY. I have been think the same thing.

[hurricanefloyd5]

I think 2006 will look very similar to 2004 as far as hurricane tracks...the bermuda high is going to really establish itself now in late june and in july,my guess is in 2006 we will not see as many storms as we did in 2005 but this year might be very active with multiple landfalls in the US.

holy freakin crap are you for real central florida might get hit again????????????????

[O Town]

Shhhhhh, don't say that. I think they are saying that the Bermuda high MAY take about the same position out in the Atlantic and thus act sorta like a convaier belt and will spit the storms right at us. I sure hope its not the going to be the same set up. Or I hope that high will move around a bit more than in 2004, seems like it did not budge that year, and thus we kept getting nailed.