New York City hurricane hype(othetical scenario)

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Since Katrina, it seems everybody from Accuweather to the History Channel have been trying to warn us about the next Big One to hit a vulnerable coastal city after New Orleans. While you could make an excellent documentary about the threat to any number of vulnerable cities - Galveston, Tampa/St. Pete, Mobile, Key West, and Providence to name a few, none are quite as sensational as the threat of a direct hurricane strike on New York.

New York hasn't been struck by a hurricane since 1821, and hasn't been seriously threatened by one since Bob in 1991. New England hurricanes like Bob, Gloria, Edna, Carol, and the Long Island Express, while rare, are much more likely to strike to the east of the city. The reason for this is that a hurricane's angle of attack must be nearly due north in order to strike the northeastern US without either first hitting North Carolina like Floyd or heading out to sea like Alex. You will almost never get a hurricane moving NNW at that lattitude because the Westerlies are too strong. NNE is much more likely.

Of course, if there was a major hurricane heading due north towards Long Island, the NHC couldn't take the risk of writing off the chances of a direct NYC strike in their cone of error. The consequences of leaving the city unprepared for a freak NNW jog into Sandy Hook would be too horrific to not warn the city. In the wake of 9/11 and Katrina, city planners would take the threat seriously and order a complete evacuation. It would be chaotic and impossible - a city that only has 2 tunnels and a bridge that closes in tropical storm force winds won't be able to evacuate 8 million panicked New Yorkers. The chaos would make the Rita evacuation look like a bad morning commute. The situation would be horrific.

Then the hurricane veers east like they almost always do, and strikes Providence, RI, a city that was hopefully well-prepared despite their lack of press coverage. New Yorkers, while relieved, aren't so sure they'll evacuate for the next one.

[mtm4319]

You will almost never get a hurricane moving NNE at that lattitude because the Westerlies are too strong. NNW is much more likely.

The consequences of leaving the city unprepared for a freak NNE jog into Sandy Hook would be too horrific to not warn the city.

You meant to switch these directions with each other, right? Otherwise, I could definitely see that playing out in the next 10 years or so.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

You will almost never get a hurricane moving NNE at that lattitude because the Westerlies are too strong. NNW is much more likely.

The consequences of leaving the city unprepared for a freak NNE jog into Sandy Hook would be too horrific to not warn the city.

You meant to switch these directions with each other, right? Otherwise, I could definitely see that playing out in the next 10 years or so.

Yeah, might as well edit that right now...

[terstorm1012]

Since Katrina, it seems everybody from Accuweather to the History Channel have been trying to warn us about the next Big One to hit a vulnerable coastal city after New Orleans. While you could make an excellent documentary about the threat to any number of vulnerable cities - Galveston, Tampa/St. Pete, Mobile, Key West, and Providence to name a few, none are quite as sensational as the threat of a direct hurricane strike on New York.

New York hasn't been struck by a hurricane since 1821, and hasn't been seriously threatened by one since Bob in 1991. New England hurricanes like Bob, Gloria, Edna, Carol, and the Long Island Express, while rare, are much more likely to strike to the east of the city. The reason for this is that a hurricane's angle of attack must be nearly due north in order to strike the northeastern US without either first hitting North Carolina like Floyd or heading out to sea like Alex. You will almost never get a hurricane moving NNW at that lattitude because the Westerlies are too strong. NNE is much more likely.

Of course, if there was a major hurricane heading due north towards Long Island, the NHC couldn't take the risk of writing off the chances of a direct NYC strike in their cone of error. The consequences of leaving the city unprepared for a freak NNW jog into Sandy Hook would be too horrific to not warn the city. In the wake of 9/11 and Katrina, city planners would take the threat seriously and order a complete evacuation. It would be chaotic and impossible - a city that only has 2 tunnels and a bridge that closes in tropical storm force winds won't be able to evacuate 8 million panicked New Yorkers. The chaos would make the Rita evacuation look like a bad morning commute. The situation would be horrific.

Then the hurricane veers east like they almost always do, and strikes Providence, RI, a city that was hopefully well-prepared despite their lack of press coverage. New Yorkers, while relieved, aren't so sure they'll evacuate for the next one.

Incorrect, the eye of the Category 1/2 August 1893 "Midnight Hurricane" crossed Queens and Brooklyn and washed away a sandy resort island off of the Rockaways.

Topic of NYC and hurricanes has been covered extensively on this board. The city from a government standpoint is prepared and has been for quite some time. The people who live in the city just don't care. That's the problem, and it's a shame, because the information is right there for them in easy to access locations.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=84478
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=84086
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=80356

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

When I was doing the 1635 - 1850 hurricane tracks for my own use last week, I was thinking about the very same issue of movement.

As you stated Dr. Jonah Rainwater, it is unlikely for a hurricane to move due north, and even less likely for a NW to NNW movement in this neck of the woods. The vast majority of hurricanes, I'd say between 80% and 90%, have been traveling between NNE and NE when they reach North of 40 degrees (in other words starting to recurve between an Eastern NOAM Trough to their West and a Bermuda High to Their East), due to usually being well embedded in a SW flow at all levels of the atmosphere. Also the inward turned angle of the Coastline surrounding NYC helps to make it a less likely target than say Cap Cod, that jutes out into the North Atlantic.

It is by no means impossible, just very hard to get say a New Jersey/NYC track to occur (which would put NYC either in the eye, or else on the right hand "dirty" half of the storm).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Here are the tracks I made. Take them for what their worth.

Link One: Hurricanes 1635 - 1850 that center passed within 30 miles (or less of my local) -

http://hurricanehistoryolderhurricanes.blogspot.com/

Link Two: Hurricanes 1635 - 1850 that center did not pass near my area -

http://hurricanehistoryotherolderhurric ... gspot.com/


* The above is for entertainment use only. These tracks ARE NOT OFFICIAL, AND SHOULD NOT BE USED FOR EMERGENCY PLANING PURPOSES.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I've got one thing to say about NYC and hurricanes. They are wayyy overdue. I don't care what anyone else says or what type of media hype there is or isn't out there. The bottom line is it is beyond past time for it to have already occurred. NYC should be prepared, just as we all should.

[MiamiensisWx]

I've got one thing to say about NYC and hurricanes. They are wayyy overdue. I don't care what anyone else says or what type of media hype there is or isn't out there. The bottom line is it is beyond past time for it to have already occurred. NYC should be prepared, just as we all should.

I wouldn't say exactly "due", but I agree that the area - and much of New England - has not seen a hurricane (let alone a major) in quite a while.

[CrazyC83]

Didn't Hurricane Juan (2003) enter Halifax - even farther north - while moving NNW?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Not exactly. Juan was moving between North and NNE when it hit. It was also a very small storm. Damage was confined to witin 50 miles of the center, just in Central NS. It also weakened very fast, really just fell apart. Basiclly a flash in the Pan, but a warning for anyone who wanted to listen:

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Now if Wilma had hit, and phased with that developing Nor'Easter in the process, than that could have been the 'storm of the century' for the NE. I can still recall how on edge everyone was in the EMOs and Weather Centers in Canada and the US, during those few days last year when the computer models were going in that direction. We really dodged a bullet there.

[Derek Ortt]

correction

Hog Island was obliterated by a hurricane in 1893, and the 1938 hurricane brought winds to near hurricane force to the city