Closed low forming east of Port Mansfield Thread #2

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MiamiensisWx

Closed low forming east of Port Mansfield Thread #2

#1 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:06 pm

First thread has reached ten pages. Continue the discussion here!

Link to original thread...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=84979
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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 30, 2006 6:08 pm

Not yet. :) When it reaches 199 replies or the full ten pages then this new one will be open.
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 30, 2006 6:20 pm

Go ahead folks. :)
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#4 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue May 30, 2006 6:21 pm

I think the chance of this system developing has lowered in the last few hours. I will still be watching it though as it now looks to be drifting around over water and the longer this lasts; the better the chance for development.
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#5 Postby tgenius » Tue May 30, 2006 6:21 pm

open for business. :D

I like the ten page rule.. makes things managable (I imagine during a real storm it becomes VERY helpful.)
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MiamiensisWx

#6 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:21 pm

From the other thread...

skysummit wrote:Ok...so this is what??? the 3rd blob of convection in nearly the same area in the past 3 weeks? Sooner or later one of these will develop. This is just giving us a little pre-season practice.


I agree. Good points on that. It is also giving us the chance to analyze the situation and synoptics with each new system and make hints and/or conclusions on whether it will or won't develop and, if it does, how much.
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#7 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue May 30, 2006 6:22 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:From the other thread...

skysummit wrote:Ok...so this is what??? the 3rd blob of convection in nearly the same area in the past 3 weeks? Sooner or later one of these will develop. This is just giving us a little pre-season practice.


I agree. Good points on that. It is also giving us the chance to analyze the situation and synoptics with each new system and make hints and/or conclusions on whether it will or won't develop and, if it does, how much.
It is also showing us that each successive system is getting stronger.
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#8 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue May 30, 2006 6:25 pm

NWS has just issued a flood watch for coastal and some inland counties along the mid to upper TX coast. I guess they expect alot of this rain to move onshore.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

MiamiensisWx

#9 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:26 pm

I think we may see some BOC systems this year, leading to a somewhat active BOC season, especially near both Mexican coasts (the Yucatan Peninsula and mainland Mexico).
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CHRISTY

#10 Postby CHRISTY » Tue May 30, 2006 6:26 pm

guys on this loop u can see the upper level low near the area causeing this convection to flare up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
Last edited by CHRISTY on Tue May 30, 2006 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:27 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:NWS has just issued a flood watch for coastal and some inland counties along the mid to upper TX coast. I guess they expect alot of this rain to move onshore.


Based on the movement and moisture flow of the system, I think southwest Louisiana may receive increasing moisture from this system, especially starting around now tonight.
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#12 Postby skysummit » Tue May 30, 2006 6:28 pm

Well, the pressure at Buoy 42020 is now the lowest it's been in the past 24 hours. It's down to 1011.2mb with a NE wind at 19mph. Buoy 42002 has matched its lowest pressure in the past 24 hours with 1011.7mb and a West wind at 11mph.

This is probably just a bunch of mumble jumble for now, but I'm bored.
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#13 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue May 30, 2006 6:28 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:NWS has just issued a flood watch for coastal and some inland counties along the mid to upper TX coast. I guess they expect alot of this rain to move onshore.


Based on the movement and moisture flow of the system, I think southwest Louisiana may receive increasing moisture from this system, especially starting around now tonight.


Well they have been asking for the rain.
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CHRISTY

#14 Postby CHRISTY » Tue May 30, 2006 6:29 pm

skysummit wrote:Well, the pressure at Buoy 42020 is now the lowest it's been in the past 24 hours. It's down to 1011.2mb with a NE wind at 19mph. Buoy 42002 has matched its lowest pressure in the past 24 hours with 1011.7mb and a West wind at 11mph.

This is probably just a bunch of mumble jumble for now, but I'm bored.


The upperlevel low near by is causeing this flareup in the gulf...this is my opinion. :wink:
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#15 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue May 30, 2006 6:30 pm

Actually HouTx, we have been under a FFW all day. The last one was over at 4pm and the latest was issued until late tonight, which will probably be extended until Wednesday afternoon.
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MiamiensisWx

#16 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:30 pm

CHRISTY wrote:guys on this loop u can see the upper level low near the area causeing this covection to flare up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html


Looks a bit anemic, which is typical for popup convection associated with systems like this in this type of setup. It is associated with a trough and shear/some dry air is around it... not exactly ideal development. Also, if I remember correctly, the factors were more favorable for the formation of Allison. Therefore, I wouldn't exactly call this Allison's cousin or a repeat of Allison.
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#17 Postby skysummit » Tue May 30, 2006 6:31 pm

CHRISTY wrote:
skysummit wrote:Well, the pressure at Buoy 42020 is now the lowest it's been in the past 24 hours. It's down to 1011.2mb with a NE wind at 19mph. Buoy 42002 has matched its lowest pressure in the past 24 hours with 1011.7mb and a West wind at 11mph.

This is probably just a bunch of mumble jumble for now, but I'm bored.


The upperlevel low near by is causeing this flareup in the gulf...this is my opinion. :wink:


I know...you just mentioned that a few posts up. ULL or not, it'll still be fun to monitor the buoy pressures for the next 24 - 48 hours just for practice.
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MiamiensisWx

#18 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:32 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Well they have been asking for the rain.


Even some moisture will do fine, though it won't be enough what is needed. What is needed is more constant, good, drenching bands of rain for a while.
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MiamiensisWx

#19 Postby MiamiensisWx » Tue May 30, 2006 6:33 pm

skysummit wrote:I know...you just mentioned that a few posts up. ULL or not, it'll still be fun to monitor the buoy pressures for the next 24 - 48 hours just for practice.


True. These type of systems can appear to be tricky at times; however, a better look at the setup and variables can be revealing in the case of these quirky systems.
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CHRISTY

#20 Postby CHRISTY » Tue May 30, 2006 6:33 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:guys on this loop u can see the upper level low near the area causeing this covection to flare up.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html


Looks a bit anemic, which is typical for popup convection associated with systems like this in this type of setup. It is associated with a trough and shear/some dry air is around it... not exactly ideal development. Also, if I remember correctly, the factors were more favorable for the formation of Allison. Therefore, I wouldn't exactly call this Allison's cousin or a repeat of Allison.


This thing has lost almost all the deep thunderstorm activity it had a couple of hours ago.PS!Remember people persistence is the key here...
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