Closed low forming east of Port Mansfield Thread #2

[jasons2k]

Wow, I leave for a few hours, go to the Hurricane conference, and this happens. Can't imagine how fast the first thread would have locked if half the TX board wasn't offline...

[SouthFloridawx]

Where does everyone see the circulation at ? The convection seems to have decreased except for another area south of where the low is. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes KFDM Meteorologist had pointed it out as

The location i have is 26.9 N 95.9 W....

Is this still accurate?

IMO:

1. If the shear continues to decrease to levels suitable for tropical formation.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

2. We continue to see convection firing near the center of the low level circulation.

3. It continues to pull away from the trough

It may have a slight chance of something tropical developing.

None of the models have indicated development. Of course none of the models have been intiated yet with an low level circulation either. I supposed we'll have to wait for the 00Z runs.

All in all I would say this has little to no chance of tropical development. However as other have pointed out on this topic, it seems as though there are areas that are going to get rain that really need it.

[wxmann_91]

Shear is too strong. Subtropical jet progged to weaken temporarily but shear shall increase again. There is a limited window of opportunity for development, though UKMET does develop it.

[CHRISTY]

Jim cantory said no development...so him a few minutes ago on the weather channel.

[meteorologyman]

Jim Cantore Rocks!

I feel bad for you texas with all the flooding rain, i hope for those who need the rain gets it and, for those who had too much rain doesn't get much and here is a rule not to forget

"TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN" or "WHEN IN DOUBT TURN ABOUT"

[rockyman]

Now that it's nighttime...and we have to rely on IR...what's with the flare-up to the south of the supposed surface low?....it's obviously under shear (the "candle blowing in the wind" effect) but it seems to be developing convection as fast as the convection is blowing off to the east...could the center be relocating further south? Persistent convection can result in a lowering of pressure at the surface...right now we might have a surface trough extending north to south...

Here's my idea:

[HouTXmetro]

Hmm, I like that assesment.

[Normandy]

Bleh. I thought it was a ULL

[P.K.]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2006

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW GULF CURRENTLY INLAND
OVER TEXAS. SHARP UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 20N95W N TO INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
OHIO VALLEY GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ
TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE E
PACIFIC EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO CENTRAL AMERICA GENERATING
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MOSTLY INLAND OVER S MEXICO MOVING
OVER THE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N FROM 93W-96W. AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE W ATLC IS RETROGRADING ACROSS FLORIDA NOW
EXTENDING OVER E GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN E OF 87W BRINGING WITH
DRY AIR KEEPING THE E GULF CLEAR RELATIVELY SHOWER FREE.
HOWEVER...LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN AND ARE BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE.

[vbhoutex]

The cen ter of the circulation is just off the Coast to the SW of the Freeport or Port Aransas area and is pumping copius amounts of rain into SE TX. If it doesn't move much over the next few days we could get(are already getting) a good soaking. In fact we do have localized flooding ongoing in some areas of metro Houston due to heavy rains this am.

[wx247]

Every time I see a product that mentions rainfall rates of 3"+ an hour I just get flabbergasted. I can't even fathom that.

[Stratusxpeye]

Every time I see a product that mentions rainfall rates of 3"+ an hour I just get flabbergasted. I can't even fathom that.

Well in the summer here during our usually afternoon thunderstorms we get 3"+ per hour rainfall quite often and it's basically a waterfall. Thats really the only way to imagine it. It kinda looks like a blizzard but not white, sorta a clear color. You can't see out the window but more than a few feet or less and the yard becomes a pond within minutes.

[rockyman]

Checking the shear and upper wind maps and the IR this morning, it appears that the best chance of anything coming of this system is much further south, in the Bay of Campeche...there's a small pocket of good upper level divergence over the convection:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

Also, what I call the "Campeche effect" (where the shape of the coast actually helps to direct the winds in circle) could help a system get going down south.

[P.K.]

Every time I see a product that mentions rainfall rates of 3"+ an hour I just get flabbergasted. I can't even fathom that.

It certainly isn't excessive. I recorded 4.5mm in one minute during a storm once, thats 270mm per hour! Orographic enhancement can also greatly increase precipitation rates.

[BayouVenteux]

Every time I see a product that mentions rainfall rates of 3"+ an hour I just get flabbergasted. I can't even fathom that.

Well in the summer here during our usually afternoon thunderstorms we get 3"+ per hour rainfall quite often and it's basically a waterfall. Thats really the only way to imagine it. It kinda looks like a blizzard but not white, sorta a clear color. You can't see out the window but more than a few feet or less and the yard becomes a pond within minutes.

Yep, not an unusual occurence for anyone living within 50 miles or less of the Gulf Coast. Sea breeze front thunderstorms are often hit-or-miss affairs, but sometimes when they do hit, they dump! I have a small canal running behind my backyard that's normally dry, but can fill deep enough to wade waist-deep in after about 15-20 minutes when one of those big rainmaking thunderstorms gets over our neighborhood.

[feederband]

Every time I see a product that mentions rainfall rates of 3"+ an hour I just get flabbergasted. I can't even fathom that.

It certainly isn't excessive. I recorded 4.5mm in one minute during a storm once, thats 270mm per hour! Orographic enhancement can also greatly increase precipitation rates.

While not uncommon it can be excessive...3" a hour is what flash floods are all about...

[skysummit]

I guess our blob watch has now moved south to the BoC. Nice convection down there this morning.

[wx247]

It is all relative depending on where you are located I assume. Speaking of which... still raining hard especially east of Galveston and northeast of Houston this morning. Things seem a lot less organized in the way of potential tropical activity from this system, however, which is a good thing.

[HouTXmetro]

I think a serious situation is developing in houston... That shield of rain is slowly inching towards metro houston and areas that were pounded early this morning.

[HouTXmetro]

Convection is also starting to wrap around the circulation center.