Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray May 31 Outlook=17/9/5

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Because Arctic Cold fronts (SWs) sweep hurricanes out to sea basically.

[HurryKane]

my question is why can somebody in colorado make a tropical forecast?

You can know your stuff regardless of where the chair that seats your hiney resides.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

All the analog years listed:

[Trader Ron]

Just to clarify, I think the reason why 2004 was used as an analog here is because they expect this year to have, track-wise, an active Cape Verde season with ridging out in the Atlantic, similar to 2004; however, I see NO PLACE in the outlook where Florida is specifically mentioned as a prime target (although it is mentioned, along with the eastern U.S. coast, as being under the gun in general due to the general patterns).

I read it differently as regards to Florida being a target.

"Anomalous mid-level ridging are associated with increased likelihood of hurricane landfalls along the East Coast and FLORIDA Peninsula during the upcoming hurricane season"

[tgenius]

By the way, I got the #s for Miami from the Excel Spreadsheet that Dr. Gray mentions in the body of his outlook, it's a different website,

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/welcome.html

[MiamiensisWx]

I read it differently as regards to Florida being a target.

"Anomalous mid-level ridging are associated with increased likelihood of hurricane landfalls along the East Coast and FLORIDA Peninsula during the upcoming hurricane season"

Yes, but this is very general and applies to the ENTIRE eastern U.S. coast as a whole. These are just the features we are seeing that will result in increased risk of U.S. eastern coast landfalls, not specifically what more local portion will get hit more often. They said the same thing in 1999, and there was enough ridging and favorable steering environments to bring storms to the southeast and eastern U.S. coast, yet North Carolina got the most storms due to a trough right off the southeast U.S. coast. The pattern, however, ensured that the eastern U.S. coast would get hits SOMEWHERE along the coast, not specifically that Florida would get hit. Hope I explained it better. In other words, this is just a byproduct of the cycle and current patterns that have been materializing over the past six years or so.

[Trader Ron]

It also say's:

Probabilities for at least ONE Major Hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas.

US East Coast INCLUDING Peninsula FLORIDA-69%(avg for the last century is 31%)

[Andrew92]

Based on the analog years and the rest of the forecast, I'd be extremely concerned if lived along coastal North Carolina. Florida looks like another prime spot as well. Also, Texas is by no means out of the woods. It may also be an active Caribbean year.

1961 - Texas hit by Carla, but not quite as memorable is Esther barely misses NC, and another TS hits NC. Three hurricanes in the Caribbean (Anna, Carla, and Hattie), two of them C3 or higher before re-analysis. Florida does not get this year.

1996 - Texas is unscathed and the Caribbean storms are not particularly strong except for C2 Lili, though Cesar was destructive to Nicaragua. Florida only gets hit once by Josephine. But NC is hit FOUR times, if you count the remnants of Josephine.

2001 - Only Allison hits Texas, but we know what she did! Two C4 hurricanes in the Caribbean (Iris and Michelle). Florida gets hit by TS Barry and TS Gabrielle. NC is only bothered slightly by the remnants of Allison.

2004 - Texas is unscathed. The Caribbean gets rocked by Charley and Ivan (Ivan is a C5 for a while here). Florida, as we know, is hit four times by majors. What is lesser known (clouded by the Florida hits) is that NC was also hit twice and SC once as well. Alex (though not technically a landfall), Charley, and Gaston hit the Carolinas as C1's.

In short, something affected NC every single year, including 2001 because the remnants of Allison were tracked through there. Florida has a very good chance of getting hit as well; only 1961 did not see a hit, but a developing depression was close to the east coast of Florida. Texas has about a 50% chance of getting hit, but if they do, it could be a doozy. And the Caribbean appears to be in for a wild year as well.

All of this, of course, is if this year does indeed follow the analog years that Dr. Gray and Phil Klotzbach have used.

-Andrew92

[MiamiensisWx]

It also say's:

Probabilities for at least ONE Major Hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas.

US East Coast INCLUDING Peninsula FLORIDA-69%(avg for the last century is 31%)

That is for the ENTIRE U.S. eastern coast, not just Florida. The eastern U.S. coast just happens to include Florida as part of the general area. This probability is for the WHOLE eastern U.S. coast spread out, not just Florida. Hope I am explaining it better.

[MiamiensisWx]

Based on the analog years and the rest of the forecast, I'd be extremely concerned if lived along coastal North Carolina. Florida looks like another prime spot as well. Also, Texas is by no means out of the woods. It may also be an active Caribbean year.

1961 - Texas hit by Carla, but not quite as memorable is Esther barely misses NC, and another TS hits NC. Three hurricanes in the Caribbean (Anna, Carla, and Hattie), two of them C3 or higher before re-analysis. Florida does not get this year.

1996 - Texas is unscathed and the Caribbean storms are not particularly strong except for C2 Lili, though Cesar was destructive to Nicaragua. Florida only gets hit once by Josephine. But NC is hit FOUR times, if you count the remnants of Josephine.

2001 - Only Allison hits Texas, but we know what she did! Two C4 hurricanes in the Caribbean (Iris and Michelle). Florida gets hit by TS Barry and TS Gabrielle. NC is only bothered slightly by the remnants of Allison.

2004 - Texas is unscathed. The Caribbean gets rocked by Charley and Ivan (Ivan is a C5 for a while here). Florida, as we know, is hit four times by majors. What is lesser known (clouded by the Florida hits) is that NC was also hit twice and SC once as well. Alex (though not technically a landfall), Charley, and Gaston hit the Carolinas as C1's.

In short, something affected NC every single year, including 2001 because the remnants of Allison were tracked through there. Florida has a very good chance of getting hit as well; only 1961 did not see a hit, but a developing depression was close to the east coast of Florida. Texas has about a 50% chance of getting hit, but if they do, it could be a doozy. And the Caribbean appears to be in for a wild year as well.

All of this, of course, is if this year does indeed follow the analog years that Dr. Gray and Phil Klotzbach have used.

-Andrew92

Very good analysis, and I agree. I also think that the pattern could support Florida getting a late-season brush or hit from the Caribbean (e.g., Irene or Wilma scenario) or an early-season storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico or northwest Caribbean. I agree... looks like another rough year.

[Trader Ron]

Cape,

Yes, The Whole entire East Coast is under the gun. Sorry, for not being clear on my part.

[Opal storm]

Looking better for the Gulf coast.

[no advance]

We can handle those cat 2 no major problem just keep those cat 5 away from C Fl.

[MiamiensisWx]

We can handle those cat 2 no major problem just keep those cat 5 away from C Fl.

A Category Two IS a major problem. Even a tropical storm is destructive, depending on the setup. Keep EVERYTHING away from EVERY land (though I know it won't happen)!

[Evil Jeremy]

dont they issue a landfall prob. graphic?

[dixiebreeze]

Cycloneye, the date on the title of this thread is very misleading. I sure didn't realize that this thread contained the 6/31/05 Dr. Gray forecast!

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, the date on the title of this thread is very misleading. I sure didn't realize that this thread contained the 6/31/05 Dr. Gray forecast!

Ok dixie,I included the date. But anyway the forecast is at the first post of the sticky thread.

[dixiebreeze]

Cycloneye, the date on the title of this thread is very misleading. I sure didn't realize that this thread contained the 6/31/05 Dr. Gray forecast!

Ok dixie,I included the date. But anyway the forecast is at the first post of the sticky thread.

Thanks.

[no advance]

We have been through alot of storms. It would take a direct hit from a Floyd like storm to have me really worried. Our house can take it anything less. Just neeed lots of beer. Surf on.

[CHRISTY]

I hope everyone can read threw this paragraph slowly because i think its very important!

FORCAST THEORY AND CAUTIONARY NOTE...

Our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons. It is important that the reader appreciate that these seasonal forecasts are based on statistical schemes which, owing to their intrinsically probabilistic nature, will fail in some years. Moreover, these forecasts do not specifically predict where within the Atlantic basin these storms will strike. The probability of landfall for any one location along the coast is very low and reflects the fact that, in any one season, most U.S. coastal areas will not feel the effects of a hurricane no matter how active the individual season is. However, it must also be emphasized that a low landfall probability does not insure that hurricanes will not come ashore. Regardless of how active the 2006 hurricane season is, a finite probability always exists that one or more hurricanes may strike along the U.S. coastline or in the Caribbean and do much damage.

Source...http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2006/june2006/