MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1038
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN CO...SWRN KS.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 425...
   
   VALID 310832Z - 311000Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND DISCRETE CELLS SHOULD
   CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION...HOWEVER MOST
   WILL REMAIN SUB-SVR.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND OVERALL ENVIRONMENT ARE
   BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR OVER MOST OF WW...BUT
   ESPECIALLY IN KS...THEREFORE...PER COORD W/DDC...KS PORTION WW IS
   BEING CLEARED. REMAINING PORTIONS WW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY
   10Z.  FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAIN EVIDENT
   OVER EXTREME WRN/NRN PORTIONS WW...ALONG FRONT RANGE AND WWD...AND
   FROM NEAR I-70 NWD.  HOWEVER...GREATEST ELEVATED BUOYANCY WITH
   MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG IS EVIDENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS FROM SERN CO ESEWD
   ACROSS SWRN KS.  PRIND LACK OF OVERLAP IN MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
   BUOYANCY WILL CONTINUE...GIVEN VEERING 850 MB FLOW OBSERVED IN DDC
   VWP AND LITTLE OR NO SEWD SHIFT PROGGED IN MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
   GRADIENTS.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   37070265 37400443 38070503 39060491 39220356 38850201
   38230180 37280233

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1039
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 AM CDT WED MAY 31 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IN...SERN LWR MI...NRN/ERN OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 311651Z - 311845Z
   
   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG SURFACE
   FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST OF LAFAYETTE IND INTO THE MICHIGAN THUMB...
   AND ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENT ZONE WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF CLEVELAND
   OH.  THIS IS OCCURRING MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO HEATING OF MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES ARE WEAK...LIMITING CAPE SOMEWHAT...BUT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE ALREADY STEEP AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND
   SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURST WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION THIS
   AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED A BIT BY BELT OF
   20+ KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN
   INDIANA THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...LIKELY ASSOCIATED
   WITH WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
   SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS THIS
   AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE AT
   BEST.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   40828759 41628640 42078574 43068470 43458363 43468289
   42888248 42448280 41618257 41938065 41088054 40568085
   39718219 39818272 40548327 40958337 40838435 40048649
   40198737 40378753

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 311858Z - 312100Z
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS/DEVELOPS
   EWD...INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE TSTMS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   DENVER METRO. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO TAKING PLACE ALONG THE
   REST OF THE FRONT RANGE. INSTABILITY IS RATHER WEAK THUS FAR...WITH
   MLCAPES AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IN
   POCKETS WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS...SHOULD
   ALLOW A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPES NEAR
   1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK THUS
   FAR...WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD HELP INCREASE ELY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW SOMEWHAT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP-LAYER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   UNDER 30-35 KTS OF WLY 500 MB FLOW...AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MID AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
   TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE RATHER LOW WITH THE GENERALLY WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT MAY BE ENHANCED ALONG A RESIDUAL W-E ORIENTED
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY JUST N OF LIC TO JUST S OF ITR.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   36950525 37530537 38110545 38940548 39820525 40530516
   40760497 40850440 40830381 40730312 40540248 39970227
   39320232 38480235 37690254 37330283 37020321 36820405

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1041
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0642 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/FAR NERN NM/FAR WRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 426...
   
   VALID 312342Z - 010115Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE ERN AND SRN
   PORTIONS OF VALID WW. LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL HIGHEST ACROSS
   E-CNTRL/SERN CO. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER TIME WITH
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY. FURTHER E IN WRN
   KS...SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY WEAKER WIND SHEAR. AN
   ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL ALONG I-70 EARLIER HAS TRANSITIONED TO A
   MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER ACROSS E-CNTRL CO...WITH ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO NW KS. 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR
   IS WEAKER IN THIS REGION /AROUND 30 KTS PER GLD VAD PROFILER/. THIS
   WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS
   WITHIN THE CLUSTER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE
   POTENTIAL FURTHER E WILL BE HAMPERED BY WEAK SHEAR AND LACK OF
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FURTHER N...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IN
   WASHINGTON COUNTY CO...HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR AND
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT TRACKS INTO A
   RAIN-COOLED/CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR MASS FROM PREVIOUSLY
   MENTIONED MCS.
   
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO OCCURRED JUST SW OF PUB...BEING FED
   BY W-E AXIS OF LOW TO MID 50S DEW POINTS. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS OF
   1000 J/KG MLCAPES SHOULD SUSTAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS. FURTHER S...TSTMS HAVE WEAKENED ACROSS NM...EXCEPT
   FOR A CONTINUED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM IN UNION CO. THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK
   SHEAR ENVIRONMENT PER AREA PROFILERS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   38070504 39220465 40370383 40590289 40140173 39630068
   39180058 38190134 37400203 36950222 36450286 36060338
   36140501 37050510

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1042
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1053 AM CDT THU JUN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...NJ..SE NY...NEW YORK CITY...WRN CT...WRN
   MA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011553Z - 011800Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.  DUE TO
   EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...A WW IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   STRONG HEATING IS ONGOING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
   APPALACHIANS...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS
   FROM WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE.
   MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT READILY EVIDENT
   ...BUT INHIBITION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING...PARTICULARLY ON NORTHERN
   PERIPHERY OF WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   ATLANTIC COAST REGION.
   
   WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY APPEARS UNDERWAY IN ENVIRONMENT
   WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...TO THE NORTHEAST OF
   ALLENTOWN PA.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BEGIN INTENSIFYING
   NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH STORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN
   PENNSYLVANIA/MUCH OF NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER HUDSON
   VALLEY...PERHAPS PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY 18-20Z.
   VERTICAL SHEAR IN WEAK WESTERLY FLOW REGIME IS MINIMAL...BUT
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING
   DOWNBURSTS...POSSIBLY ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
   
   41827550 42577501 42837428 42787305 42467310 41747325
   41197341 40807366 40587394 40317412 39917432 39747542
   40067626 40617649 41117632

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1043
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CDT THU JUN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN...SRN OH...KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011623Z - 011800Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.
   
   SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWED SURFACE HEATING THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
   THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO SUPPORT MIXED LAYER CAPE UP
   TO AROUND 2000 J/KG...MOSTLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...ACROSS
   MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY.  ONGOING CONVECTION EAST OF THE
   EVANSVILLE AREA APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
   WEAK IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND WESTERN/ NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
   WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THIS FORCING SHIFTS EASTWARD THIS
   AFTERNOON...INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
   LIKELY. 
   
   A GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK
   FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS AND RELATIVELY SMALL
   TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL ACROSS COLD POOL SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL MAY BE MINIMAL.  BUT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...
   
   38298666 38898593 39118490 38818370 37928298 37268332
   36918458 36738576 36708669 36678715 36638748 36678795
   37128786 37538717

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CDT THU JUN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL VA/MD INTO SE PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011903Z - 012030Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LOCALIZED/BRIEF NATURE OF DAMAGING
   WIND/HAIL THREAT IN SCATTERED STORMS TO THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED TO 90F+ ALONG LEE SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH
   EXTENDS THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE VA...WASHINGTON D.C...BALTIMORE MD AND
   PHILADELPHIA PA AREAS. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RATHER STEEP LOW-
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG IN MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH HAS GENERALLY REMAINED CAPPED BY WEAKENING
   MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW
   APPEARS UNDERWAY AS INHIBITION WEAKENS IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...
   AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION/INCREASE IN COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY EAST
   OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 20-22Z.  VERTICAL SHEAR/MEAN FLOW WILL
   REMAIN WEAK...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
   DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...AND SOME HAIL WHICH COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH OR
   EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...
   
   36777972 37257939 38107908 38677876 39237781 39367776
   39707700 40097624 40037566 39687529 38787591 38107722
   36907821 36557865 36547920

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1045
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT THU JUN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN ND...FAR NERN SD...NRN AND CNTRL MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 011957Z - 012200Z
   
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. MODEST MLCAPES AND SHEAR
   ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE
   SHORT-TERM WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURST WINDS.
   EXPECTED LACK OF COVERAGE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A WW
   ISSUANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.
   
   SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH
   TO ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST HOUR AROUND 40 WSW FAR. A
   WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY JUST W OF LAKE OF THE
   WOODS...AND THIS MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NE ALONG
   PRESSURE TROUGH TOWARDS BJI/INL. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS ONLY
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS SHOULD SUSTAINED ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.
   THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS THE RED RIVER
   VALLEY REGION PER MVX VAD PROFILER...WHERE MORE VEERING EXISTS.
   FURTHER E AND S...MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW /PER DLH AND WDL
   PROFILERS/ ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE
   SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS
   WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND THREAT AT LEAST FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS FAR SERN ND/NERN SD INTO W-CNTRL MN.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   46069824 46639903 47069825 47369742 47719638 48309514
   48709459 48199195 46689286 45829329 45389405 45259524
   45419702 45799786

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1046
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 PM CDT THU JUN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SRN OH...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427...
   
   VALID 012013Z - 012145Z
   
   CONTINUE WW.
   
   EXPANDING CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST/NORTHEASTWARD
   WITH FORCING...ACCOMPANYING WEAK UPPER IMPULSE...THROUGH THE LOWER
   OHIO VALLEY.  BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...EAST OF LOUISVILLE
   THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HAS WARMED INTO
   THE LOWER/MID 80S AND WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUING VIGOROUS
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE COLD POOL.
   THIS SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF FRANKFORT KY
   THROUGH CINCINNATI BY 22Z.  PEAK WINDS ALONG GUST FRONT HAVE
   GENERALLY BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KT...BUT LOCALIZED
   DOWNBURSTS NEAR NEWER HEAVY PRECIPITATION CORES ARE POSSIBLE...IN
   ADDITION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...
   
   39468553 39598489 39538347 38708310 38008376 37848476
   37858557 38108584 38638556 39088563

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1047
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 PM CDT THU JUN 01 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY AND SCNTRL OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 427...
   
   VALID 012304Z - 020000Z
   
   23Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A FRONT ALONG INTERSTATE 70 AND AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ARCING FROM EAST OF WILMINGTON OH SWD TO EAST OF KLEX.
   STRONGER TSTMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THE FRONT WHERE MASS CONVERGENCE
   WAS STRONGER.  BUT...VERTICAL SHEAR WAS GENERALLY LESS THAT 25 KTS
   SUGGESTING EFFICIENT COLD POOL GENERATION AND EXTENT.  THIS SCENARIO
   CONTRIBUTES TO PULSE MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS GIVING LOCAL DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.  SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS LOCATED OVER
   THE COALFIELDS MAY SUPPORT STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE
   HIGHER ERN KY/SWRN WV TERRAIN AS WELL.
   
   WS427 HAS A 00Z EXPIRATION AND GIVEN THE OVERALL DECREASE IN SEVERE
   WEATHER PROBABILITIES...THIS APPEARS REASONABLE.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/01/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
   37308435 39928397 39798187 38678211 37288235

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1039 AM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KY AND TN...PARTS OF NRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 021539Z - 021745Z
   
   A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN A NARROW
   PRE-FRONTAL BAND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE IN
   RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...EMBEDDED
   WITHIN BASE OF BROADER SCALE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH...NOW SLOWLY
   SHIFTING EAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU.  FURTHER INCREASE IN ACTIVITY
   AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY INTO THE 18-21Z TIME
   FRAME AS CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOWS GENERATED BY BROKEN LINE FINALLY
   SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER
   CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.
   
   OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.  THIS
   WILL LIMIT COLD POOL STRENGTH...AND...COUPLED WITH WEAK MEAN FLOW ON
   THE ORDER OF 10-20 KT...SHOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL ALONG DEVELOPING GUST FRONT. HIGHLY LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS
   MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVY PRECIPITATION CORES...WHICH COULD ALSO
   INCLUDE SOME SMALL HAIL...BUT SEVERE THREAT OTHERWISE SEEMS LOW.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   36048695 36738579 37208464 37618421 37978314 37588223
   37048180 36468223 35148400 34698528 34398634 34078717
   34048799 34798799 35388754

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN VA AND MARYLAND...INCLUDING THE
   WASHINGTON D.C./BALTIMORE MD AREA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021851Z - 022015Z
   
   A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
   
   SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW ONGOING TO THE LEE
   OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING/
   WEAKENING INHIBITION IN MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. UPPER
   FORCING TO FOCUS GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS IS NOT READILY
   EVIDENT...BUT CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL REGIME IN BROAD PRE-FRONTAL
   SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
   COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   THOUGH RELATIVELY SATURATED LOWER MID/TROPOSPHERIC PROFILES ARE
   EVIDENT IN OBSERVED/FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
   REGION...A RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS EVOLVED ACROSS
   EASTERN VIRGINIA...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 90F.
   THIS COULD ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES.  IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH PRECIPITATION LOADING ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVIER CORES
   FORMING IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT...A FEW DAMAGING
   MICROBURSTS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS INTO THE
   WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE...RICHMOND AND NORFOLK AREAS BY 21-22Z.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...
   
   37217832 37817812 38497813 39277794 39467720 39417647
   38997643 38117631 36917620 36447612 36207832

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0233 PM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID AND WESTERN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021933Z - 022130Z
   
   LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO INCREASE/DEVELOP
   EASTWARD THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ID
   INTO WESTERN MT. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ORE/WA
   AT THIS TIME...AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS FROM WA/ORE INTO
   FAR WESTERN ID. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AMPLE INSOLATION IN PRESENCE OF
   A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODEST
   INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG OR GREATER ACROSS
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL ID AND WESTERN MT PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS. THE
   COLD FRONT/ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
   ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT SPREADS
   EASTWARD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...
   
   47571665 48691584 48631233 48061096 45311098 44281292
   44781473 45371591 46261655

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 PM CDT FRI JUN 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...NW GA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022007Z - 022100Z
   
   DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST ALABAMA INTO NORTHWEST GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO.
   
   SMALL COLD POOL...EVOLVING FROM EARLIER DOWNBURST NEAR MUSCLE
   SHOALS...IS NOW EAST OF HUNTSVILLE/NORTH OF GADSDEN...ADVANCING
   EASTWARD AROUND 30 KT. FORCING ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THIS
   FEATURE...SUPPORTED BY UPPER IMPULSE...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS
   NEW BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST
   ALABAMA...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
   THOUGH PEAK WINDS ALONG THE GUST FRONT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN BELOW
   SEVERE LIMITS ACROSS THE HUNTSVILLE AREA...ACTIVITY IS ADVANCING
   INTO ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS HEATED TO NEAR 90F. SUB-CLOUD
   EVAPORATIVE COOLING COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
   DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS SOME STRENGTHENING OF COLD POOL ACROSS THE
   ROME GA AREA THROUGH 21-22Z.  FARTHER TO THE SOUTH/EAST...THIS
   THREAT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH IN LINGERING COOL/STABLE ENVIRONMENT
   ACROSS ATLANTA INTO AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF THE SMOKIES.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...
   
   34918573 34908503 34808449 34208439 33728521 33298574
   33118668 33408713 33568695 33888633 34338597

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1046 AM CDT SAT JUN 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LWR MI INTO OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031546Z - 031745Z
   
   MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-21Z...BUT A
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF POSSIBLE
   HAIL/WIND EVENTS.
   
   LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TO THE
   NORTHEAST OF A JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN/WESTERN PERIPHERY
   OF LOWER GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW.  WELL IN WAKE OF MAIN SURFACE FRONT
   ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE...DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
   50S ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MICHIGAN INTO OHIO...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE
   MAY APPROACH 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING.  AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
   ARE REACHED WITH FURTHER INSOLATION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
   BEGIN INCREASING AS EARLY AS 18-19Z.
   
   RELATIVELY WEAK/UNFOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL
   SHEAR BENEATH COLD TROUGH WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE EVOLUTION OF AN
   ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS.  BUT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
   FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL/DOWNBURSTS IN STRONGER CELLS...SOME OF
   WHICH COULD APPROACH OR BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
   
   44298479 43558375 43078310 42538242 42008181 41768133
   41248042 40008082 39468218 39418319 39798409 40808461
   42108589 43798556

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT SAT JUN 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031624Z - 031830Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF A WW.
   
   SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER FORCING IS NOT READILY EVIDENT...AND SOME
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON TIMING OF INITIATION...BUT WEAK SURFACE
   LOW/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE
   BY 18-19Z ACROSS THE PEORIA/BLOOMINGTON/SPRINGFIELD/DECATUR AREAS...
   AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROACHED.  AND...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION FIELD COULD SUPPORT AN EVENTUAL UPSCALE
   GROWTH INTO A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS...SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
   SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING
   TO AROUND 1000 J/KG  WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...AND
   MODERATE SHEAR BENEATH 30-35 KT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGEST CELLS.
   AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY FORM...WITH ASSOCIATED ENHANCED
   SEVERE RISK...PARTICULARLY IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE
   LOW/TROUGH.
   
   ..KERR.. 06/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...
   
   41009114 40968979 41028895 40458840 39578814 39058758
   38618735 37958750 37858868 38348952 38908994 39369046
   40429139

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1054
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT SAT JUN 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN KS/SOUTHEAST CO INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES AND
   NORTHEAST NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 032046Z - 032245Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR
   WESTERN KS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CO INTO OK/TX
   PANHANDLES AND NORTHEAST NM. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.
   
   WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS IN VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH...TSTMS
   APPEAR LIKELY TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR WESTERN KS/SOUTHEAST CO INTO OK/TX PANHANDLES
   AND NORTHEAST NM. AMBIENT AIRMASS IS DEEPLY MIXED...WITH
   TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. MEAN MIXED CAPES GENERALLY RANGE
   FROM 1000-1500 J/KG PER RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS...HIGHEST ACROSS FAR
   NORTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE DEEPLY MIXED NATURE OF THE AIRMASS AND
   DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. AMBIENT VERTICAL
   VORTICITY/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD AN ISOLATED
   NON-SUPERCELL FUNNEL/TORNADO THREAT IN IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY OF LEE
   TROUGH NEAR THE KS/CO BORDER THROUGH SUNSET.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
   39230209 39630124 38380039 37920023 36440097 35580263
   35200404 35250500 36420508 38410278

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1055
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0420 PM CDT SAT JUN 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD/CENTRAL ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 032120Z - 032315Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD
   AND ND. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WHICH
   COULD BE NEEDED BY 22Z-23Z.
   
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM
   EASTERN MT INTO THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS AT THIS TIME...WITH
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AHEAD OF
   THESE FEATURES...THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER
   50S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF ND/SD...WITH DEEPENING CU FIELD
   /NAMELY SINCE 20Z/ ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND/NORTH CENTRAL SD PER
   VISIBLE IMAGERY. GIVEN INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT VIA UPPER
   IMPULSE COUPLED WITH WEAKENING SURFACE BASED INHIBITION...IT APPEARS
   LIKELY THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
   OF ND/SD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE IN THE AMBIENT
   WARM SECTOR...MAXIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL SD. REGIONAL WSR-88D VADS/RUC
   SOUNDINGS FEATURE RELATIVELY STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT...ALTHOUGH
   MID LEVEL SPEED WEAKNESSES ARE GENERALLY LIMITING EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEARS TO 25-30 KTS. IT APPEARS ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/FEW SUPERCELLS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. MODEST SHEAR/HIGH CLOUD BASES SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE THE
   TORNADO POTENTIAL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   47740195 48140129 47740006 46539930 43989861 43209990
   43490122 43610133 45330183 46930201

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0707 PM CDT SAT JUN 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN IL...EXTREME SWRN IND AND FAR WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 040007Z - 040130Z
   
   PERSISTENT TSTM CLUSTER OVER SERN IL AND SWRN IND IS EXPECTED TO
   MOVE SWD ACROSS THE OH RVR BY 01Z AND INTO FAR WRN KY WEST OF
   MADISONVILLE AND NORTH OF PRINCETON BETWEEN 01-02Z.
   
   MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER SCNTRL IL WITH A FRONT EXTENDING NWWD
   INTO NRN MO.  THE TSTMS INITIATED VCNTY THE LOW LATE THIS AFTN AND
   ARE PROPAGATING SWD...BEING FED FROM UPSTREAM PARCELS OVER MO AND
   SRN IL.  VERTICAL SHEAR WAS ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS AND GIVEN
   MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BRIEF SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS
   WERE OBSERVED THIS EVENING.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGH
   MID-EVENING AS IT MOVES INTO FAR WRN KY TOWARDS NWRN SECTIONS OF
   MIDDLE TN.  UNTIL THEN...HOWEVER...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
   LIKELY.
   
   ..RACY.. 06/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...
   
   38388806 37288717 36428750 36728812 38288847

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CDT SAT JUN 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL SD/CENTRAL ND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429...
   
   VALID 040038Z - 040215Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z ACROSS CENTRAL
   SD/CENTRAL ND...WITH CONTINUED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
   THIS EVENING.
   
   VOLUMETRIC RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY FEATURES GENERAL NORTH-SOUTH BAND
   OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ND/SD...FROM NEAR
   MINOT-BISMARK ND INTO EAST CENTRAL SD BETWEEN PIERRE-ABERDEEN. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF A COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT
   MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
   
   00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FEATURE WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
   DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...WITH 1200 J/KG MUCAPE AT BISMARK ND AND 1500
   J/KG MUCAPE AT ABERDEEN SD. ADEQUATE INSTABILITY/STEEP MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES IN PRESENCE OF 25-30 KTS VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
   GIVEN MODEST STORM MOTIONS.
   
   WITH TIME...PREFERENCE FOR MOST VIGOROUS STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS SD
   GIVEN OCCLUDING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS ND AND ACCESS TO A MORE UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS/SOMEWHAT STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS SD THIS EVENING.
   WILL ALSO MONITOR REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FOR NECESSITY OF AN
   ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE /SOUTH OF WW 429/ ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD
   /INTO NEB/.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/04/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...
   
   47870120 47990030 47859883 46869814 44769784 43689857
   43439963 43800043 44140075