92E Invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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92E Invest at EPAC,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:19 am

ABPZ20 KNHC 011010
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT THU JUN 1 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...
CONTINUES A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Let's see if the second storm of the EPAC 2006 season comes out of this area.

EPAC Image
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jun 01, 2006 3:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby Scorpion » Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:35 am

The Atlantic better get on the ball soon.
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#3 Postby Meso » Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:45 am

Intensity Graphic
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#4 Postby Meso » Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:47 am

guh,sorry about size, I pressed submit instead of preview by mistake,and I can't see the edit button on my explorer, sorry :(
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2006 7:59 am

I fixed it to hypertext.
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#6 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Jun 01, 2006 8:51 am



Seems like it may have a chance. I'm not sure if the models are initiating it though. I thought I noticed something yesterday.
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#7 Postby wx247 » Thu Jun 01, 2006 8:59 am

Well, no centralized deep convection yet but the NHC even mentioned the potential for this system in their evening outlook yesterday. Shear doesn't seem to be an issue either.
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#8 Postby caplan1 » Thu Jun 01, 2006 9:14 am

Wow, day one and already some potential.
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#9 Postby wx247 » Thu Jun 01, 2006 9:31 am

caplan1 wrote:Wow, day one and already some potential.


The EPac season begins on May 15 if I am not mistaken. We were ringing in the Atlantic season yesterday and today, which begins on June 1.
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#10 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 01, 2006 10:06 am

Yes the EPac season started May 15.

IMO, that season should be May 1 - October 31.
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#11 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:15 pm

Hopefully it forms.
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#12 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:19 pm

Looks like a little better organized.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011613
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT THU JUN 1 2006

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE...HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 250
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED BUT CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
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#13 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:30 pm

Yea u can see it on this GFS Loop something trys to get going....

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=centam_slp
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#14 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:30 pm

I forecasted 17 named storms for the Eastern Pacific looks like I'm on track.
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#15 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:44 pm

It's more than normal for the EPAC to have an early kick to the season. Unlike the Atlantic Ocean, their season is usually more active at the beginning than at the end.
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#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2006 12:58 pm

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 15.2N 101.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 04.06.2006 15.2N 101.1W WEAK

00UTC 05.06.2006 15.4N 100.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.06.2006 15.1N 100.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.06.2006 15.3N 100.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.06.2006 15.3N 100.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.06.2006 15.3N 101.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.06.2006 15.1N 102.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC UKMET.
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#17 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:01 pm

wahooo! I will check on this tomarrow!
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jun 01, 2006 1:03 pm

It looks very interesting. NOGAPS is developing two storms. We may get Bud and Carlotta.
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#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 01, 2006 2:05 pm

HURAKAN wrote:It's more than normal for the EPAC to have an early kick to the season. Unlike the Atlantic Ocean, their season is usually more active at the beginning than at the end.


Correct. That is why I think it should cover all of May and end at the end of October.
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#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jun 01, 2006 2:06 pm

I'd give it a 50% chance of becoming Bud (and not our buddy).
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