Nice S. Caribbean flare-up 6/1/06 -- 6/4/06......

[SouthFloridawx]

Well it would have time to hang around for the next couple of days. From the 700-850 steering currents it doesn't look like there is much to push it anywhere. I would see just keep watching the vorticity from the forecast model output and see if the convection can maintain itself after the wave moves through.

[skysummit]

The 18Z surface plots now show a west wind just off the coast of Panama.

[dixiebreeze]

The 18Z surface plots now show a west wind just off the coast of Panama.

Right now it just looks like a big mess down there, but I think it's a watchable area right now.

[skysummit]

Yes, that's all it is...a BIG mess. Big time thunderstorms over parts of South America down there.

[NONAME]

Associated with a Low pressure area though that is over water.

[skysummit]

The 18Z GFS still takes a portion of this energy and develops it just south of Cuba before crossing and heading northeastward into the Atlantic. I believe that's 3 runs in a row now.

[dixiebreeze]

The 8:05 TWD seems to indicate there is potential for eventual activity in the Caribbean. Anyone else think so?

[SouthFloridawx]

I thought that area of low pressure would remain stationary. There is nothing there to steer it at the low levels.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

000
AXNT20 KNHC 020012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-15 KT TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N BETWEEN 79W-84W. A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 75W-79W. FURTHER E... NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 70W-75W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA
FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 75W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 65W-85W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W...AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S
OF 15N W OF 65W. EXPECT MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 70W TO HAVE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MOISTURE AND CONVECTION TO ADVECT
INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[gatorcane]

Looks like most of it will enter the EPAC and I think we could be looking at our 3rd invest there in a couple of days

[rockyman]

Approximate location of surface low (according to TWD):

[skysummit]

If this is where the low really is, it looks like convection is firing near it, and around it.

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks for the graphic Rockyman.

[boca]

It still could be to close to the ITCZ and faking us out.

[rockyman]

TAFB still likes this sytstem:

In 72 hours, shows it moving NE toward Cuba...it does has the words "possible tropical cyclone development," but I think that's for the system in the EPac

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[rockyman]

From 805 TWD:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER WESTERLY FLOW NOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM E TO W ACROSS
SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING GENEROUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO THE S CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
ITCZ AXIS AND A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 14N FROM 73W-84W.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
COMPLIMENTS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE AREA. OTHER
THAN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
MOSTLY SHOWER FREE.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1026.shtml?

[rockyman]

According to NHC (most recent surface analysis), here's the location of the surface low:

[weatherwindow]

good morning dixie....the TAFB is leaning toward the model consensus and, at least, suggests in the 06/02 200am marine weather discussion that caribbean low pressure may move north over cuba in the mon/tues timeframe and are waiting for updated global runs before introducing the low in the forecast......rich

[SouthFloridawx]

Really starting to flare up this morning.

[Coredesat]

This definitely bears watching. Which is good because I've been looking for a reason to use this:

[dixiebreeze]

Good morning weatherwindow, I believe the Caribbean will definitely give us plenty to watch and analyze over the weekend. Pretty good flares this morning.