My 2006 Hurricane Season Forecast

[donsutherland1]

Another active hurricane season lies ahead. A combination of an absence of an El Niño and warmer than normal Atlantic waters suggests above normal tropical activity. However, unlike last season in which it appeared that the overwhelming share of landfalling threats would be concentrated on the Gulf Coast, it appears that this season will see a more widespread threat.

Based on the assumption of an MEI that averages < 0 for the hurricane season and a QBO > 0, three areas appear to stand out at the greatest risk of seeing a landfalling storm: Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. In hurricane seasons that followed weak La Niña winters, North Carolina also was a frequent target for landfalling storms. In both sets of data, North Carolina was at highest risk for a landfalling major hurricane.

The emerging summer pattern composite precipitation anomalies also hints that such a course might be on track.

Finally, using both sets of data (MEI-QBO and seasons following weak La Niña winters), odds favor the season’s first named storm developing on or before July 15 and the last storm forming on or after October 15. From the data, 11/14 (79%) seasons saw the first tropical system formed on or before July 15 and 13/14 (93%) saw the last storm form on or after October 15. Given the Atlantic SSTs, I believe it is reasonable to expect the first named storm sometime in June and the last one to develop in November.

Finally, it appears likely that the U.S. will experience 1-2 major hurricane landfalls. North Carolina would likely be at the highest risk for such a storm. Florida would be next. A scenario where a hurricane makes North Carolina landfall then comes northward near the Coast or over the Appalachians while spreading rain into the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England regions is possible. Representative tracks for such a storm might include those of Diane (1955), Bertha (1996), and Floyd (1999).

Summary Data:
Named Storms: 15
Hurricanes: 8
Major Hurricanes: 5
Total U.S. Landfalls (tropical storms and hurricanes): 4
U.S. Major Hurricane Landfalls: 1-2
Highest risk for Landfalling Storms: North Carolina and Florida (including the Panhandle area)

Key Assumptions:
∙ Average MEI < 0
∙ Average QBO > 0
∙ Neutral ENSO conditions for most or all of the 2006 hurricane season

[SkeetoBite]

[Evil Jeremy]

When are you expecting the Florida Hit, and where in Florida?

[dhweather]

When are you expecting the Florida Hit, and where in Florida?

That is impossible to predict.

[CHRISTY]

i expect north carolina and florida will see alot of action this season.

[southerngale]

When are you expecting the Florida Hit, and where in Florida?

Let's be reasonable, ok?




Don, thank you for for posting your forecast, even if you did have to include Texas as one of the 3 areas that stand out. Hopefully we'll get a break this year.

[mtm4319]

I remember some time during the '05 season, you linked to this list of Category 5 hurricanes, and Floyd was listed. I pointed out that its maximum wind speed was 155mph, the upper limit of Category 4. You thanked me for pointing that out, and said that some kind of rounding error when converting knots to miles per hour led to its inclusion on the Category 5 list. It appears the same thing is happening with this map. The white line indicates Category 5 strength, when I'm guessing it was still Category 4 at the time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Luckily Texas has a lower chance of a major than NC or FL this year, but keep in mind that all it takes to cause destruction is a Cat. 1 or 2 hurricane. Some examples of this would be Hurricane Frances which hit FL as a 105mph Cat. 2 but was still able to deliver over 24 hours of TS force winds to most of FL, and wind gusts as high as 120mph along the east coast (and up to 70-90mph gusts inland). Also, Hurricane Claudette in 2003 made landfall as a moderate Cat. 1 on TX, but was still able to bring 85mph+ wind gusts to Victoria.

Also, here are some notable cities seen from the last few seasons and the TOP sustained winds (not including the sometimes MUCH higher gusts) they saw during the storms:

Beaumont - Cat. 1 winds (Rita)
Miami - Cat. 1 winds (Wilma)
Orlando - Cat. 1 winds (Charley)
Pensacola - Cat. 1 winds (Ivan)
Downtown New Orleans - Cat. 1 winds (Katrina)
Key West - TS/Cat. 1 winds (multiple storms)
Biloxi - Cat. 2 winds (Katrina)
Punta Gorda - Cat. 3/4 winds (Charley)

[donsutherland1]

Thanks all for the kind words. I believe residents throughout Florida need to be prepared, but would not be surprised if Florida's east coast saw a landfall.

[Rainband]

Thanks for the forecast Don. I agree. The east coast of Florida seems a better bet than the west. I love it where I live.

[bigmike]

Interesting post Don. Can you explain your methodology a little more in-depth for us laymen. Always appreciate your forecasts.

[Brent]

Great forecast Don.

[donsutherland1]

Bigmike,

I rely on a variety of data to arrive at my forecasts. The data includes:

- ENSO (likely conditions weighted toward similar hurricane seasons following similar winter conditions; there also is an El Niño "hangover" effect in which tropical activity is somewhat slow to recover from preceding seasons that saw a moderate or strong El Niño)
- MEI: This ENSO index (which incorporates more than just SSTs) has proved to be a good predictor of whether a season will be active or inactive.
- Upper air patterns: How these are evolving helps me assess areas for possible landfall risk: last season, the Gulf Coast appeared to be the target for most of the landfalling activity.
-TNA: I've given this greater weight than in the past. Last season, the TNA was at record warm levels and the warm tropical Atlantic conditions combined with a neutral ENSO allowed for a recordbreaking season. This year, the TNA is running below last years exceptional levels.

I'm not able to pin down exact landfall areas, but it is possible to find areas at heightened risk. I also examine historic tracks, so given the cluster of storms that targeted NC in my set of years, I also found a number of those storms then came northward. Moreover, a disproportionate number of the major ones came northward during ENSO conditions similar to what I expect this summer. Therefore, I noted that possibility.

This does not mean that I necessarily envision a 1938-style, Carol (1954), or Donna (1960) this season. However, I believe based on statistical "return" times, such a storm will likely impact Long Island and/or New England within the next decade. In large part, this idea is also based on the historic experience with past warm Atlantic cycles. Needless to say, even such statistical and climatological data has its limitations. For example, Georgia has not experienced Category 3 conditions since 1898. Prior to that, such conditions were more commonplace there.

[msbee]

Don
thanks for your forecast.
do you have any forecast as to the Caribbean islands and their chances of seeing landfall?
Barbara

[Ivanhater]

always interested to read your forecasts Don, great job!

[donsutherland1]

Barbara,

I believe that the Cuba-Hisapaniola-Jamaica area will likely see 1-3 landfalling storms (one of which will likely be a hurricane). The other area of added risk, in my view, is the Bahamas. The other Island areas are probably at lower risk, but one should never rule out the possiblity.

I wish I could pinpoint landfall ideas to a larger extent, but I simply don't have the skill to try to go beyond larger areas.

[Dustin]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Don,

Thank you as always for your outlooks. Personally, I think this year will not be a big year for Florida, or the northern gulf coast. The reason for this thinking is I belive there will be a large ridge over the eastern usa. This means if a storm does meander into the gulf of mexico, it will most likely be deflected from the northern GOM, and it will head west ward towards the texan coast, or the northern mexican coast according on how strong the ridge becomes. Is my thinking ok don?

[SouthFloridawx]

Thanks for the forecast don!

[MiamiensisWx]

Great summary, Don! Thanks for sharing your forecast.

[NCHurricane]

Thanks, Don. Very informative.

I hope your wrong on NC though.