Nice S. Caribbean flare-up 6/1/06 -- 6/4/06......

[Brent]

No development for the time being stated by one of my favorite forcasters.AVILA.

Are you serious? Avila is one of your favorites?

[CHRISTY]

No development for the time being stated by one of my favorite forcasters.AVILA.

Are you serious? Avila is one of your favorites?

i have a few actually from jack beven to stacey stewart and richard pasch...and of course one of my all time favorites is John hope.rest in peace my friend.

ps! and of course how can forget ed rappaport.

[SouthFloridawx]

Lets see how long this area of convection continues to fire over the surface low.

[drezee]

THE MAIN SFC FEATURE IN
THE CARIBBEAN IS A 1010 MB LOW IN THE SW PORTION NEAR 12N81W. A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL SWIRL WAS DETACHED FROM ANY
CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE LOW CENTER...BUT THE MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION IS FAR
N OF THE LOW NEAR JAMAICA AND SPREADING TOWARDS CUBA FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 74W-81W. GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW SOME POSSIBLE TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF
IT IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LOW. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W IS GENERATING A PATCH OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE AXIS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 64W-66W. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...LIGHTER W OF 78W. CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TOMORROW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Interesting already a LLC forming near convection. This needs watching.

[CHRISTY]

Lets see how long this area of convection continues to fire over the surface low.

bingo... see thats what i was talkin about!

[CHRISTY]

This area close to panama now has thunderstorms fireing near the center of the surface low .look at the AVN LOOP in the new NOAA page.can someone pull up the lastest quikstat.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds20.png

[CHRISTY]

Thanks matt!If this feature stays of shore we may get something going here.last time i checked shear was low down there.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lets see see you tomarrow

[Rainband]

Thanks matt!If this feature stays of shore we may get something going here.last time i checked shear was low down there.

000
FXUS62 KTBW 031800
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT SAT JUN 3 2006

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-MON)...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETUP OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY WASHES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
SUNDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND NATURE
COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE TAMPA BAY REGION AND THEN DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE TAMPA
BAY AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES AND WITH A
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED NIGHTTIME AND MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL
COUNTIES PUSHING INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND BECOMING SCATTERED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND WITH
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS FROM ABOUT VENICE TO SEBRING
SOUTHWARD.

RATHER WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE GULF COAST AND HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S
ALONG THE GULF COAST TO AROUND 90 INLAND. SUNDAY NIGHT SOME DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES
SHOULD INTO THE 60S...EXCEPT STILL LOWER 70S NEAR THE GULF COAST.
ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...EXCEPT
REMAINING IN THE MID 80S NEAR THE COAST THANKS TO THE NORTHWEST WIND
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

.LONG TERM (MON NGT-SAT)...UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PEAK OF THE COLDER AIR ALOFT RIDING BY JUST TO THE NORTH. THE
GFS IS FORECASTING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
DURING THAT TIME...WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE TOO DRY DESPITE THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE SURFACE. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
DRY AS THE COLD POOL PASSES MONDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SO
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS VERY UNLIKELY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH SOME SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. 06Z GFS RUN CONTINUES DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY...SO THE 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ARE
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL...WITH PERHAPS A
COOLER THAN NORMAL NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS...AND PERHAPS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE
RIDGE SETS UP OVERHEAD AND THE COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SUNDAY
THEN BECOME NORTHERLY WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS REMAINING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 4 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.AVIATION...DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IN OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
LEADING TO DECREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND NO SHOWER ACTIVITY AT THIS
TIME. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS LINE WILL BREAK UP BEFORE MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT
CURRENT ACTIVITY IS ALREADY MORE PRONOUNCED THAN WHAT GUIDANCE
INDICATED. GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY AND DRIER AIR OVERHEAD...WILL COUNT
ON DECREASED ACTIVITY AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON BUT ALSO SHOW VCTS
AT PIE AND TPA TO ACCOUNT FOR GULF ACTIVITY.

SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN PATCHY
SHALLOW GROUND FOG UP THROUGH AN HOUR AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS
FLOW REMAINS OFF GULF OF MEXICO KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 88 72 89 / 30 20 10 10
FMY 71 89 70 90 / 20 30 10 10
GIF 72 90 70 92 / 30 30 10 20
SRQ 74 86 71 87 / 30 20 10 10
BKV 68 89 62 90 / 20 20 10 10
SPG 75 88 72 89 / 30 20 10 10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE...PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION...EJ




National Weather Service
Disclaimer

[CHRISTY]

ok but if this surface feature continues to have thunderstorms fire near the center i think it has to be watched for some development.

[Rainband]

ok but if this surface feature continues to have thunderstorms fire near the center i think it has to be watched for some development.

THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SO
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS VERY UNLIKELY. That says it all

[Audrey2Katrina]

THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SO
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS VERY UNLIKELY. That says it all

Sounds GOOD to me!

A2K

[CHRISTY]

THE MAIN SFC FEATURE IN
THE CARIBBEAN IS A 1010 MB LOW IN THE SW PORTION NEAR 12N81W. A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL SWIRL WAS DETACHED FROM ANY
CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
AROUND THE LOW CENTER...BUT THE MAIN BATCH OF CONVECTION IS FAR
N OF THE LOW NEAR JAMAICA AND SPREADING TOWARDS CUBA FROM
17N-21N BETWEEN 74W-81W. GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW SOME POSSIBLE TC
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF
IT IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LOW. THE TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 66W IS GENERATING A PATCH OF SHOWERS BEHIND THE AXIS
FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 64W-66W. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN...LIGHTER W OF 78W. CONTINUED UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TOMORROW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

well this discussion says its a wait and see situation.rainband

[Rainband]

BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF
IT IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LOW.

Your right it has a .00000000001 chance

[CHRISTY]

BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF
IT IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LOW.

Your right it has a .00000000001 chance

its a small chance i know but hey thats about all weve got in the atlantic right now.

[Rainband]

I enjoy the quiet after last year.

[CHRISTY]

I enjoy the quiet after last year.

yea i also enjoy the quiet times were having cause last year's hurricane season hit me on a personal level with the passing of my sister with KATRINA.she lived in new orleans.may she rest in peace.

[southerngale]

BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF
IT IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT LOW.

Your right it has a .00000000001 chance

its a small chance i know but hey thats about all weve got in the atlantic right now.

It's June 3rd, relax. You'll get your storms eventually....don't worry.