Global models coincide on low,Will it be subtropical?

CHRISTY · #21 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sun May 28, 2006 11:38 pm

spinfan4eva wrote:After careful and indepth analysis of the GFS model at 120 hrs I proclaim this idea and forecast as...........

NO GOOD!!

#22 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun May 28, 2006 11:47 pm

I was looking to the latest NOGAPS, and the low pressure forecast to form north of Puerto Rico has nothing to do with the low we are tracking. It seems our low will come directly from the Arctic region.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006052900

I will keep an eye but I don't expect much from this system.

#23 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 29, 2006 6:36 am

00z NOGAPS

:uarrow:

The 00z NOGAPS run still shows the low pressure.Let's see what the 12z run has later today.

00z GFS

:uarrow:

The 00z GFS still has that low pressure,however less deeper than in past runs.Let's see what the 12z run shows later today.

#24 Postby **P.K.** » Mon May 29, 2006 6:54 am

It looks like it isn't too far south from a low we had a couple of weeks ago. Interestingly that had no fronts or troughs with it at one point with what looked like a weak ring of convection around the centre (It had an occluded front but lost that). The low however was extratropical.

#25 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 29, 2006 8:40 am

6z GFS at 120 hours

:uarrow:

This 6z run of the GFS shows a weaker low than the 00z run.Let's see if the next more important 12z run has it more weak or more strong but as I see this it looks extratropical at this point.

#26 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:29 pm

Well let's give credit to the GFS model as well NOGAPS as for days they haved shown a deepening low in the NorthEastern Atlantic and it's there right now near the Azores Islands as a 1003 mb low.But it's a cold core low and not a warm core one.

Atlantic Image

:uarrow:

#27 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:34 pm

This topic is already being discussed here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=120

#28 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:36 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:This topic is already being discussed here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=120

No,that is the Caribbean area.This thread is for the Azores low.

#29 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:This topic is already being discussed here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=120

No,that is the Caribbean area.This thread is for the Azores low.

Ohhh my bad!!!

#30 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:38 pm

NP at all.Those things happen.

#31 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:This topic is already being discussed here:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=120

No,that is the Caribbean area.This thread is for the Azores low.

Ahh but, my friend the area you pointed out is the area in the thread I posted. GFS take the "LOW" that it is trying to develope and move out into the atlantic.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

#32 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:49 pm

EDIT: I posted a couple twice and one in the wrong order it is ok to look at now.

CHRISTY · #33 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 1:56 pm

man i hope this is not another fantasy storm from the GFS cause its been very persistent with this actually happening. :roll:

#34 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sat Jun 03, 2006 5:07 pm

I notice the models are trending Westward with this baby each run. Dang I hope not. We are getting two days of heavy rain up here in the Maritimes right now, I hope this thing doesn't get added to the mix later in the week. If so it'll be a bummer of a week

Global models coincide on low,Will it be subtropical?

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