GFS June 4 - 5 low crossing Cuba

[Taffy]

As an ameature, I love watching blobs. I find them fascinating. It is also, in my uneducatede opinion, a great way to learn what to watch for and not watch for.

[CHRISTY]

I need a satalite link to this convection, please. Thanks... I am very much an ameature, by the way.

Taffy...you can get some here. The "AVN" is probably the most used.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl.html

Thanks skysummit....iam at work so thats why i didn't post any links.

[Dean4Storms]

I think it is also worthy to point out that we could see more of a hybrid sub-tropical system come out of this. With the trough digging down it would probably be more likely if anything.

[boca]

At least the US doesn't have to worry about this one if it develops.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Even if this doesn't develop it will likely get close. The NHC is forecasting this thing to get down to between 1005-1007mb (at least).

[SouthFloridawx]

From the 8:05AM TWD

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A WEAK
BIT OF CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WEAK TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W SOUTH OF 20N.
MORE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWS BETWEEN 50W AND 63W
SOUTH OF 22N. A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 12N79W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM
THIS LOW TO 17N79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 16.5N
75.5W...AND 14.5N 78.5W. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING UP
AND THUS THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN WEAKENING...AND OTHER
PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING IN OTHER PARTS OF THIS AREA.
THE GFS MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP THE THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA LOW CENTER NEAR 12N79W INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OTHER
COMPUTER MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS FORECAST. MOST OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE
ORIGINATE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

[x-y-no]

are you kidding me? The GFS is wanting to develop it!

Also we are in June - I wouldn't count on a ridge eroding so quickly thus keeping it more westerly than out into the Bahamas...this system bears watching..

It's something of an exaggeration to say the GFS develops this. It takes a heavily sheared 1007mb low across Cuba - that's all.


I mainly started this thread because I thought this would be an interesting test of how the GFS is doing this year at predicting this kind of early development - the sort of thing which in a month or two will result in a TS. If this low does form and cross Cuba, then I'd say that's a pretty good performace out of the much-maligned GFS. It was sniffing this out a week ago.

EDIT: Interesting ... I see the TPC discussion does characterize the GFS as trying to develop it ... I'll defer to the pros.

[wxman57]

Even if this doesn't develop it will likely get close. The NHC is forecasting this thing to get down to between 1005-1007mb (at least).

Where do you see this NHC forecast of development? Their TWO says no development.

[Incident_MET]

TWOAT only goes out 36 to 48 hours.

If you are referring to the manual progs with the spot low early next week, that is done as a result of conference between HPC/TPC and is not purely TPC forecast necessarily.

[boca]

If this develops it won't be a corcern for us here in the states.

[CHRISTY]

If this develops it won't be a corcern for us here in the states.

nope!but that will be our first system in june.of course it has to happen first.

[SouthFloridawx]

The NHC TWO mentions this system.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031520
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 03 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[wxman57]

I see that the 12Z GFS is coming in line with the other models that have not been forecasting any significant development. Just a weak area of low pressure crossing Cuba next Tuesday/Wednesday and heading harmlessly out to sea. At most, central and eastern Cuba to Haiti may see some rain out of this.

[x-y-no]

I see that the 12Z GFS is coming in line with the other models that have not been forecasting any significant development. Just a weak area of low pressure crossing Cuba next Tuesday/Wednesday and heading harmlessly out to sea. At most, central and eastern Cuba to Haiti may see some rain out of this.

Yeah ... much weaker with it.


But OTOH, it spawns yet another EPAC system on days 6 and 7 (June 9 - 10) ... like I said - these are good tests of how well the GFS is doing with this kind of genesis this year.

[Rainband]

I see that the 12Z GFS is coming in line with the other models that have not been forecasting any significant development. Just a weak area of low pressure crossing Cuba next Tuesday/Wednesday and heading harmlessly out to sea. At most, central and eastern Cuba to Haiti may see some rain out of this.

I agree

[curtadams]

I see that the 12Z GFS is coming in line with the other models that have not been forecasting any significant development. Just a weak area of low pressure crossing Cuba next Tuesday/Wednesday and heading harmlessly out to sea. At most, central and eastern Cuba to Haiti may see some rain out of this.

GFS has been quite typical with this. Good at predicting possibilities but overly bullish on actual development.

[HURAKAN]

I see that the 12Z GFS is coming in line with the other models that have not been forecasting any significant development. Just a weak area of low pressure crossing Cuba next Tuesday/Wednesday and heading harmlessly out to sea. At most, central and eastern Cuba to Haiti may see some rain out of this.

GFS has been quite typical with this. Good at predicting possibilities but overly bullish on actual development.

Humans created computer models, and perfectness is not a human quality. Therefore, I think it's impossible to expect something close to perfect in computer models.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

As an ameature, I love watching blobs. I find them fascinating. It is also, in my uneducatede opinion, a great way to learn what to watch for and not watch for.

You are right there. I've been "blob watching" since 1995, and it does indeed educate one about TC formation. I find I can often tell when a system has become a TD by just looking at it.

[vaffie]

My opinion is that this low is pretty useless. The first chance for a tropical system to develop is if East Pacific TD2 dies over Mexico and it's remnants drift into the BOC in about a week or two, and start to fire up.

[MiamiensisWx]

My opinion is that this low is pretty useless. The first chance for a tropical system to develop is if East Pacific TD2 dies over Mexico and it's remnants drift into the BOC in about a week or two, and start to fire up.

Welcome back, vaffie!

I tend to agree with you on that. The synoptics just don't favor development of the central and southern Caribbean system. The better timeframe to watch is in the next several weeks ahead.