Tropical feature possible in Northeast on Wednesday

[wxwatcher91]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATE NEAR TERM..
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
455 PM EDT SAT JUN 3 2006


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TENDENCY CONTINUES FOR TROFFING TO KEEP REDEVELOPING ALONG E COAST
FOR FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS IS A FAIRLY OMINOUS PATTERN THAT KEEPS
US IN AN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL RISK FOR FUTURE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS.

DIFFICULTIES IN SHORTER TERM OF RECONCILING MODEL MASS FIELDS AND
RAINFALL CONTINUE INTO THE LONGER TERM. OVERALL PATTERN FROM A
QUALITATIVE MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS TO RISK OF STILL MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS COMING WEEK. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO BE TRENDING MORE
TOWARD EARLIER ENSEMBLES AND 00Z OPERATIONAL ECWMF OF HOLDING CLOSED
LOW FOR A LONGER TIME OVER MID ATLC REGION. QUITE A NUMBER OF THE
00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWED SURFACE LOW BEING CAPTURED BY UPPER TROF
AND MOVING CLOSE TO CAPE COD LATE WED. THIS WAS LESS APPARENT FROM
THE 06Z RUNS. MAIN CONCERN IS THAT UPPER CLOSED LOW REMAINS PARKED
FOR A TIME SSW OF OUR REGION PER ESSENTIALLY ALL NUMERICAL
MODELS...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS TO DEVELOP A FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
TOWARD FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY CULMINATING IN PASSAGE OF COASTAL
SURFACE LOW DURING MID WEEK. THIS COULD FOCUS MOISTURE IN ALREADY
WET AREAS. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK/TIMING OF
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR FEATURES AS WELL AS AREAS OF POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THE LONGER TERM
TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WED/THU TIME FRAME.

PATTERN RECOGNITION OF CLOSED LOW TO OUR SW SUGGESTS ENOUGH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO FORECAST CHANCE SHRA/TSTMS BOTH MON AND
TUE AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY CT VALLEY REGION. ALTHOUGH MOST OF AREA
WILL PROBABLY BE DRY FOR MUCH OF MON/TUE PERIOD...WILL NEED TO HAVE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS.

HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FOR WED RIGHT NOW. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR
STARTERS...BUT THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO
EVENT IF SYSTEM OF TROPICAL ORIGIN OR AT LEAST WITH SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH TO AREA AS DEPICTED ON
HPC DAYS 4/5 SURFACE PROG TO BRING US ANOTHER CONCENTRATED RAINFALL
EVENT. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN AN UPDATED HWO LATER.

BOTH OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM ALLOW FOR NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
FRONT TO AFFECT REGION THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTMS. THE 12Z GFS NOW SHOWS ANOTHER AND VERY VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE TROF THAT DROPS SE THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRI AND EVEN
FORMS A SURFACE LOW JUST OFF COAST. NOT CONFIDENT OF THIS SCENARIO
YET. ONE OR THE OTHER OF THESE SHORT WAVE TROFS COULD LEAD TO STRONG
CONVECTION BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.

HAVE USED MAV GUIDANCE FOR FIRST CUT AT TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR SUN
NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. MAY SEE AN E COAST SEA BREEZE DURING MON
AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...

IN THE LONGER TERM...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STILL ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO EVENT MID WEEK...PROBABLY AROUND WED/WED NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WHAT COULD BE A TROPICAL FEED
OF MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF TUE/TUE NIGHT
MAY CONGEAL INTO A COASTAL LOW THAT PASSES JUST OFFSHORE WED OR WED
NIGHT. SHOULD THE PATTERN AS ADVERTISED BY THE ECMWF COME TO
PASS...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE EASTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND SO PLENTY OF TIME TO
SEE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION EMERGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

[Derek Ortt]

nontropical low

little chance of a TC in NE this time of year. Tropical moisture does not mean that the low is tropical

[Jim Cantore]

My area can use some rain

[wxwatcher91]

nontropical low

little chance of a TC in NE this time of year. Tropical moisture does not mean that the low is tropical

I know. however a coastal low this late in the year could mean an increased chance of tropical lows tracking up the coast as we move into hurricane season.

also the AFD says it's possible that the low could be of tropical origin

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well my area really doesn't need anymore rain. It has been quite a wet three weeks, and I'm trying to lay in a new septic system but can't because it is just too wet. I hope that this is wrong, but I'm thinking it may very well happen.

[terstorm1012]

I noticed this low on the models Friday, it's non-tropical.

we could use the rain in PA though.