article on FSU Superensemble and NHC from Lakeland Ledger

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upupandaway
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article on FSU Superensemble and NHC from Lakeland Ledger

#1 Postby upupandaway » Sat Jun 03, 2006 10:50 pm

This Lakeland Ledger article just came out tonight on FSU and the Superensemble. It seems to answer a lot of the questions the board had a couple of weeks ago about the FSU Superensemble and why it has not been made available to the public. Although I'm not sure how long the link below will be valid, here it is. If the link goes bad, we can probably get it off of the main lakelandledger.com archives.

http://www.lakelandledger.com/apps/pbcs ... G/60603006

From what I read, it looks like a company in North Carolina had enough foresight to purchase the rights on the Superensemble from FSU years ago. It looks like FSU is getting paid royalties by the company for letting them have the rights on the model, so FSU is actually a winner in the situation, too. That is great for FSU. It is rare to see a research technology that actually is worth anything at all. FSU should be proud of what they produced!

The article was a bit confusing in that it quoted FSU met department faculty as saying they were not being paid by the government for the information, yet an NWS spokesperson said FSU was receiving grant money for providing an OPERATIONAL product. I can see why that Weather Predict company was upset that FSU was getting paid money for providing the information to NHC when the company had rights on it, not to mention the fact that the company pays FSU royalties, according to the article.

As an FSU fan, it is comforting to see that the NWS acknowledged that the model was the best hurricane model in 2004 and one of the best in 2005. How can NHC not be willing to pay for the information? They said the technology is the best out there. As a taxpayer and former Florida resident, I would want to be darned sure that NHC has the best modeling technology available. That should be worth millions, especially when you consider how much money FEMA wasted post-Katrina!

Anyway, it sounds great for FSU that they developed this technology. It is a true winner and a life saver and obviously the best thing out there. Hopefully NHC will get something worked out with that private company and fast!
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:00 pm

I think the GFS is as good as the FSU superensemble. The NHC likes to base their discussions off the GFS more than the FSU it seems 8-)

BTW - great post and thanks for the info. I am a University of Florida graduate (GO GATORS!) but since you are now a storm2k family member - I welcome you!!!
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:03 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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#3 Postby meteorologyman » Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:02 pm

Welcome to Storm 2K Upupandaway and Excellant info for a first post
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#4 Postby upupandaway » Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:03 pm

Not if you read there seasonal summaries. The GFS is not nearly on par with the Superensemble They tout the FSU Superensemble like none other, esp. in the 2004 writeup. In the 2005 writeup, they said the main reason the FSU Superensemble was not #1 again was b/c of the input model changes (e.g. GFDL changes) and it took the training a little while to get caught up.

Checkout the track error stats...not to mention the intensity error stats. Good luck getting decent windspeeds out of the GFS. Lol.
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#5 Postby meteorologyman » Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:20 pm

I'll (hopefully) be a FSU undergraduate next year working for an Associates and mabey even higher in Meteorology
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#6 Postby Downdraft » Sat Jun 03, 2006 11:38 pm

I can't see how anyone could say the FSU model isn't on par with the GFS that's just ludicrous. That being said FSU received federal money to improve this model and if I was the government I'd pull all federal grant money from the University. I would also recommend Florida citizens, in fact, all citizens contact their elected representatives to express their concern. If this company had any brains they'd realize the advertising benefit of the NHC using and mentioning the product. Extremely unfortunate short sighted profit oriented thinking shame on them and Florida State University. :(
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#7 Postby clfenwi » Sun Jun 04, 2006 12:46 am

Two points:

1. Comparing the FSU SE with the GFS is apples and oranges. The SE is a specialized to the business of hurricanes, while the GFS is a global forecast model that as part of its regular course of business forecasts hurricanes. The SE is only at work when there are tropical systems up and about while the GFS does it work 365 days a year. Yes, the SE has better track forecasting performance on average than the GFS does, but there is a lot of stuff that GFS does that the SE does not. Apples/oranges.

2. I believe that this is directly linked to the kerfluffle two weeks ago ("Florida State University has mandated effective 24 May 2006 that no real-time weather forecasts relating potentially in any way to hurricanes are to be disseminated by faculty or students at FSU...") It would not surprise me that the University's lawyers recommended that the University take the "liability burden" off themselves, in effect, shifting it to the private company. I think it is from that context that the quote``We're not in the weather forecasting business. We do research only' comes from.
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#8 Postby stormchazer » Sun Jun 04, 2006 6:42 am

I am as Pro-business as anyone but this is a matter of Public Safety and addresses the same concerns as the Santorum Bill of last year. It is fine line between a commercial enterprise making money and denying the NHC with important data to predict Hurricane paths and intensity and protect lives.

I hope Weather Predict sets aside its profits and provides the NHC the important info it needs, or we "joe public" may be paying the tab.
Last edited by stormchazer on Sun Jun 04, 2006 6:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby upupandaway » Sun Jun 04, 2006 6:44 am

Downdraft,

With all due respect, you suggesting that the gov't should pull all money from FSU is as ludicrous as that guy saying the GFS is better than the Superensemble. :wink:

Why should Florida citizens be concerned about this issue? That company apparently bought those patent rights. According to the article, they are more than willing to provide it to NHC. And, FSU is even getting money back from the company. Not sure what your point is about the fact that residents should be concerned. The taxpayers benefit all around. More than anything, this article sounds to me like the FSU meteorology department's feelings are hurt. That one professor's quote about, "It's a legal thing....of course I want to provide it..." is a case in point. Wasn't that Krishnamurti guy the one that developed the model in the first place? It looks like a professor would be proud that his technology is being used in the private sector. That sounds crazy he'd be complaining about someone else providing it, unless he was getting a lot of money for "giving" it to NHC. And, if NHC was paying him directly for an operational product, wouldn't it violate the agreement between FSU and that company the reporter talked about in the article? Again, I go back to my earlier comments about it sounding odd that the FSU meteorology dept was claiming they were giving it to NHC for free.

You make an interesting point about FSU receiving federal money to improve the model. The government is free to give money for whatever they want. But, if the Superensemble patent is not owned by the government and was already developed years ago, then I don't see how the government can then come in and claim they have rights on a technology. If the government gives money to Microsoft for something, they can't go out and claim that they own Windows. I used to work in the NWS, and I remember the big public/private partnership push that NWS headquarters was always talking about. This would be a great example of that (maybe the only one??) if the NWS and the company can pull that off!

Again, if the reporter's story is accurate, this whole thing seems silly because, if NHC and that company sign a deal, the following happens: 1) NHC benefits by having a true commercial, operational group provide the information, 2) FSU benefits by getting royalties from the company, not only via an NHC arrangement, but also by the increased business that the company might generate from others realizing that the model is the best thing out there, 3) the company benefits by making money.

I'm not the sharpest tack in the drawer, but there is something that bothers me when little companies get stepped on by the government. Since I'm a meteorologist, when I saw that article, it got me a little spun up, with some upper level divergence overhead!
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#10 Postby upupandaway » Sun Jun 04, 2006 6:47 am

Stormchazer,

You said, "I am as Pro-business as anyone but this is a matter of Public Safety ad addresses the same concerns as the Santorum Bill of last year. It is fine line between a commercial enterprise making money and denying the NHC with important data to predict Hurricane paths and intensity and protect lives."


Were you able to read the article I sent originally? That company said they were going to provide the information, even if a deal had not been reached.

It is crazy to think that a university would be more reliable providing a product that a commercial entity.

Anyway, this is an interesting issue. One worthy of discussion. Read my comments in the previous post, too. I'd be interested to hear what you have to say.
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#11 Postby stormchazer » Sun Jun 04, 2006 7:11 am

upupandaway wrote:Stormchazer,

You said, "I am as Pro-business as anyone but this is a matter of Public Safety ad addresses the same concerns as the Santorum Bill of last year. It is fine line between a commercial enterprise making money and denying the NHC with important data to predict Hurricane paths and intensity and protect lives."


Were you able to read the article I sent originally? That company said they were going to provide the information, even if a deal had not been reached.

It is crazy to think that a university would be more reliable providing a product that a commercial entity.

Anyway, this is an interesting issue. One worthy of discussion. Read my comments in the previous post, too. I'd be interested to hear what you have to say.


They do not specifically say they will provide the info for free regardless...

Using the licensed technology from Florida State, Weather Predict plans to sell forecast information to buyers.

FSU has previously provided that forecast information to the NHC for free.


Okay, if a Hurricane is bearing down on the coast....3 days out.....5 days out?

Exactly what impact the lack of the Superensemble data will have on another potentially active season is unclear.

However, a top Weather Predict official, when contacted for this story, said his company would not withhold forecast information if a hurricane was bearing down on the U.S. coast.

``Nobody's going to hold back the Superensemble,'' said Jayant Khadilkar, CEO of Weather Predict.
.

....and yes, some Universities offer outstanding information, at least as good as any Commercial Enterprises. I mean most medical breakthroughs have come from University Research and some of the best hurricane research has come out of places like Dr Gray at Colorado State, Florida International University's International Hurricane Center, the Tropical Research Team from the Univ. of Wisconsin, Penn State and more.

Khadilkar, Weather Predict's CEO, says the company is trying to work out a deal to provide the information to NOAA and the NHC.

``We are going to provide exactly what FSU was providing. No difference in service. No difference in information,'' he said.


...but did not say for free and earlier it said...

Joel Sivillo, a meteorologist with Weather Predict and an FSU graduate, said Weather Predict has had the exclusive commercial rights to the technology for some time and sole discretion on whether it would allow FSU to give the NHC data.

Sivillo said it allowed FSU to provide the data to the NHC because Weather Predict was not yet ready to commercially market the forecasts.


I am just concerned at "what cost" this info will be provided. Again, I am pro-business, but I am concerned about whether profits or public safety will win in this argument.
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#12 Postby upupandaway » Sun Jun 04, 2006 7:24 am

Very good points. Interesting discussion here.

The medical breakthroughs certainly come at universities a lot. However, when is the last time you saw a drug factory on a campus? (aside from some frat houses) :D "Where is your psychology class? It's in Harris Hall. You know, the one right next to the Advil factory that FSU built a couple of years ago." Come on. Same thing here. FSU discovered it. Someone bought the rights to it. And now they sell it, with FSU benefiting.

What kind of cost do you think this company is going to propose to NHC? Thousands? Millions? Hundreds of millions? What would you think is fair, given the obvious value (by NHC's own admission) of the information? I wouldn't think it would be that much. I mean, the gov't must have spend millions on the development and maintenance of the GFDL/GFS etc.

Regarding the other wx information you mention, e.g. Bill Gray, Penn St., etc....none of that information is patented and no company owns the rights on the technology, as far as I know. That is the big distinction here.
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#13 Postby upupandaway » Sun Jun 04, 2006 7:27 am

I started poking around about that Weather Predict company some. Looks like they have been using the Super Ensemble for a number of years operationally. This article was from a couple of years ago.

http://www.investors.com/terms/2213Weather060104.pdf

And, it sounds like hurricane forecasting isn't the only thing they apply the technology to??? Interesting. Wonder if that company will IPO?
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#14 Postby ronjon » Sun Jun 04, 2006 7:00 pm

I read the article and I'm disgusted with FSU and Weather Predict. It seems to me if the model was developed with Federal grant dollars that NOAA and NHC should be able to receive the information for free. Let the private company sell its SE model runs to private weather forecasters - they would certainly pay for it to give their audience exclusive information on SE predictions. To me, this is greed at the expense of public safety. And is the model a public domain code? Seems to me that if a state university developed it with federal grant dollars the code should be in the public domain - not in the hands of corporate america.
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#15 Postby benny » Sun Jun 04, 2006 7:31 pm

To me, this has scandal written all over it. Funds from NOAA paid for the development of the FSU (at least part of it) and in turn NOAA had an agreement with FSU to receive the superensemble. How did that agreement end? I am pretty sure reading all of this that NHC (NOAA) wasn't informed. The superensemble is the best intensity guidance that NHC has and to take it away and try to make them pay for it after developing it.. something about that seems wrong. As far as I understand FSU had an agreement with both weatherpredict and nhc and decided to chunk NHC. not good. more will come of this I think.
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#16 Postby tgenius » Sun Jun 04, 2006 8:30 pm

SO all FSU has going for it is Burt Reynolds and FSU Superensemble.. while the University of Florida.. well.. they only invented GATORADE :D

Sorry.. had to ;)
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Yep

#17 Postby WeatherNole » Mon Jun 05, 2006 12:54 am

tgenius wrote:SO all FSU has going for it is Burt Reynolds and FSU Superensemble.. while the University of Florida.. well.. they only invented GATORADE :D

Sorry.. had to ;)


Yeah. Good old gatorade. Battling thirst has brought about $100 million to UF since the early 70's.

We've got nothing to compare (unless you count the $350+million brought in by battling cancer with Taxol - since the mid 90's).

But don't forget about "Smokey and the Bandit". Burt still supports us! :)

Mike

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#18 Postby knotimpaired » Mon Jun 05, 2006 7:03 am

WeatherNole wrote:
tgenius wrote:SO all FSU has going for it is Burt Reynolds and FSU Superensemble.. while the University of Florida.. well.. they only invented GATORADE :D

Sorry.. had to ;)


Yeah. Good old gatorade. Battling thirst has brought about $100 million to UF since the early 70's.

We've got nothing to compare (unless you count the $350+million brought in by battling cancer with Taxol - since the mid 90's).

But don't forget about "Smokey and the Bandit". Burt still supports us! :)

Mike

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As the proud mother of a FSU graduate of the Film School my daughter was offered a job in the school as Post Production Supervisor which she accepted and stayed for 2 years.

The Film School happens to be in the stadium and my daughter managed to snag a apt. at Burt Reynolds Hall where all the "redshirts" are required to live.

I still to this day carry my ticket stub from the last game we attended together. Nov. 4th, 2000. Back to Back Attack with Clemson.

Go Noles......
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#19 Postby benny » Mon Jun 05, 2006 7:51 pm

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... ee_lu.html

the palm beach post was blogging about this..
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#20 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:39 pm

upupandaway wrote:Very good points. Interesting discussion here.

.....snip....What kind of cost do you think this company is going to propose to NHC? Thousands? Millions? Hundreds of millions? What would you think is fair, given the obvious value (by NHC's own admission) of the information? I wouldn't think it would be that much. I mean, the gov't must have spend millions on the development and maintenance of the GFDL/GFS etc. snip....


I can tell you that from the point of view of a private weather company that would consider purchasing the model data, that we're even balking at paying $30,000 a year for the ECMWF data. Pricing it into the millions of dollars will put it out of reach of most, if not all, of the people who could use it. I don't know that we could justify spending $20,000 on the FSU superensemble for the season.

Anyone ever find any pricing info on the Weather Predict web site?
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