Thanks in advance!
000
FXUS64 KHGX 142126
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
327 PM CST MON NOV 14 2005
.DISCUSSION...
NOT PICKING UP MUCH ON HGX RADAR THIS AFTN BUT STILL THINKING THAT
WE`LL SEE THINGS PICK UP A BIT MORE SHORTLY. AS FOR TONIGHT...A RE-
TURN OF LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE. NOT THAT MANY CHANGES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREE-
MENT WITH FROPA TIMES MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY (12-2 PM NORTH...3-5 PM
CENTRAL AND 5-7 PM COAST) SO WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES ON THE
GRIDS HERE. POPS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN THE
PROGS OF HIGH MOISTURE/WEAKISH CAP AHEAD OF IT. NOT LEANING BEYOND
TSTMS WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS POINT...DESPITE THE HIGH CAPES (AT
/AROUND 2K) AND STRONG LIFT (WITH THE FRONT). VERTICAL SHEAR PROGS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AND LINGERING MORNING CLOUDS COULD INHIBIT
HEATING DURING THE EARLY AFTN. RAPID CLEARING OF POPS/CLOUDS STILL
IN THE WORKS TOMORROW EVENING AS TEMPS PLUMMET. COOL/DRY WX TO PRE-
VAIL THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP NWLY UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS
RETURN OF FALL TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE THROWING OUT SOME HIGH POPS WITH THIS FROPA...BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT WE`LL STILL BE TOO DRY FOR SIGNIFICANT PCPN. NONE-
THELESS HAVE STUCK SOME CHICKEN DIMES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALLOW THE DRY/COOL WX TO CONTINUE. 41
RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY ARE...
GLS IAH CLL
TUESDAY 82/1973 88/1978 90/1921
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS RHS DROP TO AT/BELOW
20 PERCENT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAY
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION
IN IAH/HOU TAFS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE VFR TIL TONIGHT WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER 05Z. EXPECTING WINDS TO STAY UP A BIT SO
NOT ANTICIPATING QUITE AS MUCH FOG AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THOUGH
CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT IAH. WIND SHIFT WITH THE BIG COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE NEARING CLL AT 18Z...IAH/HOU 21-23Z. 45
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLIES TONIGHT SHOULD GET SEAS UP TO 4-5 FEET OFFSHORE
HAVE HOISTED A SCEC FOR THIS AS WINDS SHOULD RANGE FROM 15-20 KNOTS.
THE BIG ISSUE IS THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT ROARING SOUTH TUESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCREDIBLY CONSISTENT ON THIS FEATURE WITH IT
BREACHING THE COAST AROUND 00Z WED. VERY STRONG CAA WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROPPING QUICKLY...850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
AROUND 5C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ABNORMALLY
WARM SST SHOULD LEAD TO WINDS A HOWLING. WILL BE UPPING WINDS AND
SEAS IN GRIDS WITH SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD RELAX DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT WILL STILL HAVE 15 KNOTS WORTH OF WIND BY 06Z
THURSDAY OVER THE BAYS. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD END UP SWEEPING INTO
THE CARRIBEAN...GFS SEEMS TO QUICK BRINGING BACK SE WIND TO THE AREA
SO WILL LIKELY JUST GET THEM BACK TO THE EAST BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY. 45
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 69 74 42 63 37 / 20 50 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 71 81 44 65 39 / 20 60 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 73 81 52 62 49 / 20 60 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SCEC FOR OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT.
SCA FOR BAYS TUES NIGHT.
GALE WARNING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS TUES NIGHT.
&&
$$
What are "chicken dimes?"
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What are "chicken dimes?"
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