Nice S. Caribbean flare-up 6/1/06 -- 6/4/06......

[HURAKAN]

I think it's time to get Thread #2 because the discussion with this system will continue for a few more days!!!

[cycloneye]

I think it's time to get Thread #2 because the discussion with this system will continue for a few more days!!!

It looks that way.But still this one will remain open until it reachs 199 replies or the full ten pages.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Good

[wxman57]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

There is no question that a low-level circulation is present. I think if shear drops and the low remains over water, we could see our first TD of the season.

Very broad weak spin on Visible imagery is reflected in surface obs in the region. Winds in the 5-10 kt range, mostly. Convergence appears to be decreasing this afternoon, though, as wind shear increases. Chances of any development are remote, maybe 1 in 100.

[Meso]

Yay for activity begining,can add some life to my boring days.. Now to learn to juggle between storm tracking and girlfriend :S

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not looking very good very very broad...But still some convection firing east of the center about 150 to 200 miles. My thinking is the shear increases north/northeast of the LLC/surface low and the low keeps moving southward it might have a slight chance it could get with in that more faverable area. With the shear increasing northward forming outflow channel. But very remote...We will see if its still around in 3 or 4 days.

[ronjon]

Looks pretty anemic now although there is currently a LLC present on SAT. Its doubtful it will do much while on the dry subsidence side of the upper High immediately to its west. NW sinking air is not condusive to TC formation. Now, if it survives a few days and the Upper High moves over the circulation then we might have something to watch. I haven't looked at the predicted upper air patterns in the next 3-5 days in the NW Carribean so maybe someone might want to venture an opinion.

[rockyman]

18z shear map shows that the Gulf of Honduras is becoming more favorable for development

Now:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8shtZ.html

versus 24 hours ago:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... htZ-8.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is what I was looking at. Also the LLC is moving slowly southward into it. My thinking is that it moves slowly southward into the more faverable enviroment while strong upper level shear forms north of it. Then expect the shear to help form a outflow channel which will help support inlining the LLC with the upper high higher in the Atmosphere=Increase convection over the LLC. But the chances are slim at this time this will play out just have to watch it.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 04 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA... WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS... IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS... SCATTERED SHOWERS... AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... JAMAICA... CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
ADJACENT LAND AREAS... AND EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS HAITI... AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

[wx247]

I don't see this developing. First of all convection is waning. We aren't getting sustained development here. It is fun to watch nonetheless.

[MGC]

Conditions are very hostile in the upper levels currently. I don't see the UL conditions improving during the next few days. UL in Greatlakes region is diving south which will only reinforce the current trough which emcompases the entire N GOM. Yes, the pattern currently over the NW Carb looks like a winter setup. I currently think our weak little low is going to wither and die. I may only suggest a slim chance for tropical development on the order of <10%......MGC

[cycloneye]

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC BETWEEN 65W-75W.
WEAK 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. IT IS DRIFTING WNW WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING TO
THE E OF THE LOW. NEARBY UPPER TROUGH WOULD SEEM TO ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.



Above is the 8 PM EDT discussion from TPC.

Hostile,Hostile,Hostile is the word to describe why this area will not have the chance to develop.If you ask me on a percent for development I say 1%.

[Brent]

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLC BETWEEN 65W-75W.
WEAK 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. IT IS DRIFTING WNW WITH A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING TO
THE E OF THE LOW. NEARBY UPPER TROUGH WOULD SEEM TO ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.



Hostile,Hostile,Hostile is the word to describe why this area will not have the chance to develop.If you ask me on a percent for development I say 1%.

Yeah I agree... I'd be very surprised if this developed under the current setup.

[rockyman]

Low pressure is now at 1007...FWIW I think this is the lowest it's been.

Upper level shear seems to be backing off a bit and shifting to a more west to east flow (as the trough axis passed to the north and the upper high over Central America begins to have a greater effect).

[Evil Jeremy]

time to lock up the page!

[cycloneye]

time to lock up the page!

Three more replies.

[rockyman]

Evening map...not much change...shear is now coming from WNW instead of NNW..any chance of development will have to wait a while:

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h119/rockyman_photos/GOES01312006156NSG4Xn.jpg

[benny]

12z ukmet was interesting.. trying to get something going in that same general area... hmmmm

[cycloneye]

Ok it has reached 199 replies so it's locked.A new thread will be made.