00z NAM

[Scorpion]

Interesting to say the least. It has been pretty persistant with this.

http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b27/d ... 6_084l.gif


*Edited by staff because the image was so large, you had to scroll across to read each line of everyone's posts. Just click the link above to see the model run. (southerngale)

[GeneratorPower]

Thanks for sticking that on here. That's pretty interesting. It's only 84 hrs out, too.

[Vortex]

very interesting indeed!

[WxGuy1]

I strongly caution against using the NAM for any sort of tropical forecasting... I put very little confidence in the forecast of a tropical system, much less the genesis of a system. NAM and the tropics? Eek.

[Scorpion]

The WRF has been showing it for several runs as well.

[curtadams]

Reasonable - could be that Carribean glop that's been under discussion trying to develop under the heavy shear in the area. Isn't there a wave coming through too?

[SouthFloridawx]

ok not to freak anyone out and I wasn't sure if i should even post this. But, I have consulted with my lawyer and if I put this disclaimer I should be ok when the server shuts down because of the shear amount of posts that will be made after I post what I am about to post.

Now people please do not react negatively towards this post as it is only one forecast model besides the nam. None of the other models are showing anything like this. This is not a forecast and should be taken as one. The is a large amount of upper level shear in the GOM caused by the sub-tropical jet and I even really hesitated posting these graphics. Let's just wait and see what comes out on the next run.


The 00Z Candian Model is indicating an area of low pressure forming in the eastern pacific in 72 hours. Now that area of low pressure moves in the the Caribbean Sea approximately through Central America just south of the Yuchatan Pen.

Depicted here:

In 108 Hours:


In 120 Hours:


In 144 Hours:

[Brent]

ok not to freak anyone out and I wasn't sure if i should even post this. But, I have consulted with my lawyer and if I put this disclaimer I should be ok when the server shuts down because of the shear amount of posts that will be made after I post what I am about to post.

[ericinmia]

I give this more weight now that the 00z run of the Candian is closing off a Low and developing.

Lets wait to see some consistancy, model agreement, and that there were no error's or Oops with the data input for this run.

Being the 00z run also gives this idea more credibility if the data is accurate.

[spinfan4eva]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is all kinda strange.... pick a basin as to which this will form.... then pick a basin where it may wind up. Here is my take on it which is quite unsure at this time:

In outlook, Strange things going on with the models... They all want to develop something in a few days in the pacific or even the Caribbean near central america and do different things with it. The CMC is the most bullish and strange... A weak tropical cyclone develops in the pacific in 72 hours, crosses central America and heads nortward into the gulf intensifying to a near hurricane by 144hrs. UKMET develops a cyclone in the pacific and then leaves it meandering near central america for a few day through 144 hrs. GFS moves the cyclone into mexico slowly by 120 hours. FSU MM5 forms a system near panama and moves it NNW through the western Caribbean through 120 hours.

Nevertheless, No tropical cyclone formation is expected for the next 36 hours.

All models mentioned are available here http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ remember I based this on the 00z runs.

Specifically, the Canadian/CMC model depicting what was said above is here....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... hour=144hr

[tailgater]

Nice post spinfan4eva.
The Euro has a very weak low over Cenral America mostly in the Epac.

http://tinyurl.com/pjdto


*edited by stafff so this page can be read without having to scroll across the page for each line (link was too long) (sg)

[Extremeweatherguy]

remember last May when there was a storm that was suppose to do that? I think a pacific to atlantic storm has only happened four times ever. One of the worst times was in 1949 when a storm crossed into the bay of Campeche, strengthened to a Cat. 4 and then made landfall near Freeport, TX.

[beachbum_al]

I guess we will wait and see what happens.

[curtadams]

The CMC is the weakest of the major global models for predicting hurricanes. All last year it just loved spinning up major hurricanes, but if it was alone, there typically was nothing there at all. The GFS is bullish, but much more often there will be a storm there even if not as strong as the GFS predicted. Plus, the GFS is sometimes right with its bullish predictions but I've never seen the CMC lead the pack. Given that the CMC is a Canadian model, it makes sense that its strengths are not in the tropics.

Edit: Just noticed, it's the CMC at 144 hours! Don't stop the presses!

[boca]

Its definitely plausible given the time of year as long as it stays away from Florida. If it stays a depression I welcome it.

[no advance]

I agree with Boca we could use a soakin here in Fl. I was wondering if this would be related to the depression that made landfall near Alcapoco yesterday.

[JPmia]

I do remember models playing these scenarios out last year or the year before. Interesting how they are all calling for something to develop here and there. I don't recall so much potential develop in the models. Although, as we have seen the last week nothing has come to fruition. Oh well. Only a matter of time.

[Stratusxpeye]

Consistency will be the key. We'll have to watch and see what the models say for the next few days. If this did happen what would be the (likely) steering pattern? Due north into gulf coast or NE or East movement? Hopefully its just a wave or TD And goes through central Florida here and stalls. We need about 5-10 inches of rain to catch up. My local parks pond is 100% dry. Never seen that since I've lived in Florida.

[no advance]

It has been known when it rains in Fl. it pours. We can use alittle pouring.

[Air Force Met]

Interesting to say the least. It has been pretty persistant with this.

http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b27/d ... 6_084l.gif


*Edited by staff because the image was so large, you had to scroll across to read each line of everyone's posts. Just click the link above to see the model run. (southerngale)

It's the NAM...and when it's consistant at 84 hours out...the limit of its range..that tells you its not necessarily picking up on any particular system.

Its the NAM.