Nice Caribbean-Bahamas flare-up=6/5/06 Thread #2

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cycloneye
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Nice Caribbean-Bahamas flare-up=6/5/06 Thread #2

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 04, 2006 9:25 pm

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 61&start=0

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Thread #1 above.

Let's continue the discussions about the Caribbean Area here.


ABNT20 KNHC 050206
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN JUN 04 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD...NEARLY STATIONARY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...THE
BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

Last edited by cycloneye on Mon Jun 05, 2006 6:57 am, edited 3 times in total.
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#2 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jun 04, 2006 9:31 pm

Hmm....the word "elsewhere" is now being used (meaning this could have a chance).
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#3 Postby boca » Sun Jun 04, 2006 9:35 pm

Extreme I think you might be reading into that too much.
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#4 Postby Aquawind » Sun Jun 04, 2006 9:55 pm

LOL, That is something that happens big time during season. TWO verbiage is broken down so much..people definately try to read into them and find some inside meaning all the time.. Granted the forecasters do suggest indirectly at times.. Forecasters write with their own style and thus it opens the door for people to find meaning that they think is relevant. Open for interpretation..ugh..sure makes things messy around here at times.. :lol: Fortunately another TWO comes out soon and usually by a different forecaster.. It just makes things so much more exciting around here... :lol:
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#5 Postby stormtruth » Sun Jun 04, 2006 10:06 pm

Aquawind wrote:LOL, That is something that happens big time during season. TWO verbiage is broken down so much..people definately try to read into them and find some inside meaning all the time.. Granted the forecasters do suggest indirectly at times.. Forecasters write with their own style and thus it opens the door for people to find meaning that they think is relevant. Open for interpretation..ugh..sure makes things messy around here at times.. :lol: Fortunately another TWO comes out soon and usually by a different forecaster.. It just makes things so much more exciting around here... :lol:


Is that so? Hmm.......I notice that Forecaster Pasch did use the words "Tropical Storm Formation" in his discussion. 8-)
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#6 Postby Aquawind » Sun Jun 04, 2006 10:22 pm

LOL.. I doubt he was implying a TS would form tomorrow. Afterall he mentions unfavorable conditions for tropical cyclone development.
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#7 Postby coriolis » Sun Jun 04, 2006 10:35 pm

Aquawind wrote:LOL, That is something that happens big time during season. TWO verbiage is broken down so much..people definately try to read into them and find some inside meaning all the time.. Granted the forecasters do suggest indirectly at times.. Forecasters write with their own style and thus it opens the door for people to find meaning that they think is relevant. Open for interpretation..ugh..sure makes things messy around here at times.. :lol: Fortunately another TWO comes out soon and usually by a different forecaster.. It just makes things so much more exciting around here... :lol:


Is that like the daVinci code of forecasting?
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#8 Postby Aquawind » Sun Jun 04, 2006 10:44 pm

Yep.. Except hurricane forecasting is all hidden in the Escher Collection.. :cheesy:
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#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:18 am

Bumping for dixie. :)
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#10 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:33 am

Here is a brand new S. Caribbean flare-up this morning 6/5/06. I'll post it here since the new thread was locked:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
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#11 Postby boca » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:37 am

I know its a new flare up but I'm thinking its an extension along the trough thats in the Bahamas moving easterly.
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#12 Postby dixiebreeze » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:44 am

Whatever. I don't think so, Boca.
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#13 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:48 am

What kind of a rude response it that Dixie? He gave an opinion with reason. No need to get rude about it..
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#14 Postby boca » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:51 am

Dixie its just an opinion I've been wrong in the past. Looking at the sat again I think your right.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
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#15 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:55 am

boca wrote:Dixie its just an opinion I've been wrong in the past. Looking at the sat again I think your right.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html


He's probably not a morning person. :lol:
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#16 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:08 am

From the 8:05 am TWD..

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE SIGNATURE
OBSCURED BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM
74W-78W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1033.shtml?

Outlook to be release very soon. :)
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#17 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:33 am

wow, that wave looks very nice and it is starting to move out over the water. This bears watching for sure...especially toward mid week.
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#18 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:40 am

I think we might have our first invest coming soon if this thing continues to persist.
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#19 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:20 am

Nothing New of interest to them..

000
ABNT20 KNHC 051505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 05 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD...NEARLY STATIONARY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
IN THESE AREAS. HOWEVER... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
...AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART

$$
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:24 am

NOTHIN' NEW!!!
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