00z NAM

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
Scorpion

#41 Postby Scorpion » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:57 am

Arlene formed in a similarly unfavorable environment right?
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#42 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:58 am

cheezywxman wrote:lets wait for the 12z


The 12 z is out thru 78 hours...just the same weak low.
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#43 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:02 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:whoa! talk about weird! I just did more research and found that on this page ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/ ) The models show Scorpions Hurricane, but on this page ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ ) they show my nothing storm. This is making me VERY confused! There seems to be no apparent difference in these two pages until you look at the models.

EDIT: nevermind. I just figured it out. Here is what the writing at the top of the second link says:

Please click on this link for our experimental changes to add new WRF graphics for 24-hr, 36-hr and 48-hr precipitation and new SREF graphics at three hour time steps. In addition four new SREF probability graphics are added

This explains it.


Yeah...and at the TOP...it says "THIS WEBSITE IS EXPERIMENTAL"

Hey Scorpion...pay attention to BIG RED LETTERS. Go to the regular site.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

#44 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:05 am

CMC is on crack too.

Image

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6372
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#45 Postby boca » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:05 am

Still looks like a weak low on the regular site and hopefully giving us rain here in S FL.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#46 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:06 am

wow, if the CMC model played out that would be insane! It is not impossible though...a similar scenario has happened four times in recorded history.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6372
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#47 Postby boca » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:07 am

Are they picking up on the EPAC depression remnants and then developing it on the other side?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

#48 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:09 am

boca wrote:Are they picking up on the EPAC depression remnants and then developing it on the other side?


Kind of but, it would be totally new. GFS is taking this "LOW and runs it along the coast of mexico and eventually north into land there. Not going into the Carib. and not in the BOC/GOM.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
hurricanefloyd5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1659
Age: 44
Joined: Sun May 02, 2004 10:53 am
Location: Spartanburg
Contact:
Contact hurricanefloyd5

#49 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:10 am

i hope so!!!!LOL!!!!!!!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#50 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:14 am

The CMC and GFS look like two different lows because they start in two different places.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6372
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#51 Postby boca » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:15 am

Very true one starts SW of Panama and moves WNW along the coast and the other moves ESE along the coast than North in the Caribbean.I'm getting a headache.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

#52 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:17 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The CMC and GFS look like two different lows because they start in two different places.


Take a look at it for yourself... These are the only two future low's presented by these models in the EPAC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#53 Postby Scorpion » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:56 am

Actually, the NAM that I was using is the NAM-WRF suite, which will become official on June 13. Additionally, it continues development for 12Z.

Image
0 likes   
Top
JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:
Contact JonathanBelles

#54 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:16 am

rain for florida?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

#55 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:21 am

rain for florida?


I hope so... :D
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#56 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 05, 2006 11:27 am

I hope so too.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jdray
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 853
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: NE Florida

#57 Postby jdray » Mon Jun 05, 2006 12:20 pm

Send it to North Florida.

I barely got 1/4 an inch on Friday/saturday.

GFS is also showing some distrubance/moisture on the western tip of Cuba in the same timeframe.

Image
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#58 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jun 05, 2006 12:43 pm

Scorpion wrote:Actually, the NAM that I was using is the NAM-WRF suite, which will become official on June 13. Additionally, it continues development for 12Z.

Image


That looks like a very organized system.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38117
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#59 Postby Brent » Mon Jun 05, 2006 1:41 pm

Scorpion wrote:Actually, the NAM that I was using is the NAM-WRF suite, which will become official on June 13. Additionally, it continues development for 12Z.

Image


:eek:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:
Contact JonathanBelles

#60 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jun 05, 2006 2:03 pm

rain. everyone do the rain dance for me :101: :boog: :rain:
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 869MB, abajan and 42 guests