00z NAM

[rockyman]

Shear across the western Caribbean is much lower today than 24 hours ago:

Now:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

24 hours ago:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-8.html

[rockyman]

The Wisconsin maps (shear, steering layers, etc) are now "zooming" to the Bahamas instead of NW Caribbean. For example:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... dlm1Z.html

[Scorpion]

I really don't understand why the NHC says upper level winds are hostile. Shear looks 20 kts at most in the area of the low.

[rockyman]

805 TWD

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF DIGS AS FAR S AS
THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS LOCATED TO THE E AND
AND W OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH ONE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER HONDURAS AND THE OTHER OVER THE N LESSER
ANTILLES. AT THE SFC...A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N84W WITH A TROUGH RUNNING TO THE NE ALONG
20N82W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. ONLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS
NEAR THE LOW WITH CONVECTION FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AND SFC FORCING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS BETWEEN 75W-83W. SOME OF THE MOST ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF
STORMS IS FROM JAMAICA TO SE CUBA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 76W-80W
AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W/79W IS
ENHANCING A FEW SHOWERS IN THE S CARIBBEAN WATERS AND OVER
PANAMA. MODERATE TO STRONG CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE OVER S
AMERICA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 68W-75W. MAINLY DRY AND
FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS ARE NEAR 15-20 KT E OF 75W WITH LIGHTER
AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS W OF 75W DUE TO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRES.
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGESTS THAT CONSIDERABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE W CARIBBEAN THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK.

[southerngale]

I really don't understand why the NHC says upper level winds are hostile. Shear looks 20 kts at most in the area of the low.

Maybe this response by wxman57 about shear maps in another thread will help a little:

It certainly has potential to develop. Wind shear is low in the Caribbean and the water is definitely hot enough.

I never trust wind shear maps, as many models don't have a clue what the actual winds are over the troipcs. I do look at water vapor loops to get an idea of the wind fields aloft.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest from Joe Bastardi this evening:

-There are going to be many "model false alarms" in coming days.

-He expects Atlantic acitvity to increase after the 10th (especially in the NW Carrib. and Gulf).

-He thinks the Gulf has the highest threat of a storm before the end of June.

-He expects the ridge to come NE more strongly toward the Ohio valley (opening up the Gulf as a pathway).

[Stratusxpeye]

-He expects the ridge to come NE more strongly toward the Ohio valley (opening up the Gulf as a pathway).[/i]

What would this mean for steering of a system. General path. Gulf coast? florida? or texas?

[boca]

Unfortunately probably the Northern Gulf coast.

[Opal storm]

Unfortunately probably the Northern Gulf coast.

Too early to tell really.But I can't imagine how crazy it would be if the FIRST storm of the season hit the same area Katrina did.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Unfortunately probably the Northern Gulf coast.

Too early to tell really.But I can't imagine how crazy it would be if the FIRST storm of the season hit the same area Katrina did.

imagine the media explosion this would cause.

[boca]

Say the high pressure moves from the Ohio Valley to North Carolina and their was a system in the Caribbean wouldn't the logical path be LA, Miss, AL, and Fl panhandle area.If the high was in that position I can't see the storm moving across Central or Southern Florida. Oh I forgot upper Texas Coast. Opal do you agree.

[Opal storm]

Say the high pressure moves from the Ohio Valley to North Carolina and their was a system in the Caribbean wouldn't the logical path be LA, Miss, AL, and Fl panhandle area.If the high was in that position I can't see the storm moving across Central or Southern Florida. Oh I forgot upper Texas Coast. Opal do you agree.

I agree,central/western Gulf.I suppose it would take a cold front to sweep it into central/south FL.

[SouthFloridawx]

model runs for Nam are almost done. Let's see what they come up with this time.

[spinfan4eva]

Say the high pressure moves from the Ohio Valley to North Carolina and their was a system in the Caribbean wouldn't the logical path be LA, Miss, AL, and Fl panhandle area.If the high was in that position I can't see the storm moving across Central or Southern Florida. Oh I forgot upper Texas Coast. Opal do you agree.

I agree,central/western Gulf.I suppose it would take a cold front to sweep it into central/south FL.

From Accuweather.com.......

Today's Discussion
Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean is Being Monitored
Posted: 5-JUN-2006 6:32pm EDT

Tropical trouble might be brewing in the northwest Caribbean



By Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski



We are monitoring a broad area of low pressure over Central America into the northwest Caribbean. The lowest pressures are found southeast of Nicragua and just east of Costa Rica. Upper level winds over the northwest Caribbean are creating too much shear for this system to organize within the next couple of days. Besides an upper level system that extends over the Gulf of Mexico into Central America will have to weaken further and lift out before we can consider any development. Some computer model output is showing possible development Thursday into Friday. But as was the case last year this output cannot be trusted. We saw model output ramp up several "Boguscanes" last year. If the upper level system now in place over the eastern Gulf of Mexico lifts out to the northeast this low pressure area might become organized somewhere just east of Belize or just east of the Yucatan. The model output latching onto this development suggests what ever develops will move northward this weekend.

[CHRISTY]

Guys to me this season will start slow but once august comes around there gonna be rolling across the atlantic like a train.

SEE....

[Extremeweatherguy]

spinfan4eva, we are not necessarily talking about the current blob we are watching this weekend, but instead a new area of activity that may develop in the Carrib. or Gulf between June 10th and the end of the month.

[boca]

What time does the NAM usually come out.

[SouthFloridawx]

00Z NAM

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

the experimental one is only at 48 hours right now. I'll post it when it's finished.

[CHRISTY]

i'll be waiting southfloridawx...

[SouthFloridawx]

here it is

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... loop.shtml