Possible Major East Pacific Storm

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'CaneFreak
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Possible Major East Pacific Storm

#1 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:22 pm

[url]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_102.shtml[/url]
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#2 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:27 pm

1) It's 300 hours.

2) GFS predicted TD-2E to be a major hurricane at 180 hr and it was triggerhappy even then.
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CHRISTY

Re: Possible Major East Pacific Storm

#3 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:27 pm



try it again....
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#4 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:28 pm

that is not 300 hours out..that is 102 hours out.
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#5 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:31 pm

Yep.. looks to an active early EPAC.. We will be watching. :wink:
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#6 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:33 pm

Could be interesting....
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CHRISTY

#7 Postby CHRISTY » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:33 pm

so is this what the NAM and CMC have been showing?so it does not get into the caribbean...
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#8 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:36 pm

That is possible Christy...and probably likely....being that an east-pac storm RARELY goes into Atlantic....
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#9 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:38 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:that is not 300 hours out..that is 102 hours out.


My bad, I saw 300 mb and thought it was 300 hr. Sorry. Still, there is plenty of time to watch this, and it probably won't be as powerful as the GFS depicts it.
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#10 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Jun 05, 2006 5:59 pm

NB is getting rolled up with a tstorm right now....I am filming it...really good one...
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#11 Postby senorpepr » Mon Jun 05, 2006 6:04 pm

I vote no. Not nearly enough factors will come together for that to happen. Even in the link you provided... there isn't enough of an anticyclone aloft. I would wait for that to form before I start hoisting the freak flag...
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#12 Postby 'CaneFreak » Mon Jun 05, 2006 6:07 pm

Good point...will keep my eye on it..... 8-)
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#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:15 pm

Aquawind wrote:Yep.. looks to an active early EPAC.. We will be watching. :wink:


June in the EPac is like July in the Atlantic.
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#14 Postby Stratusxpeye » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:25 pm

GFS Over estimates the power on alot of the systems. Should be interesting to see what plays out anyway though.
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#15 Postby Aquawind » Mon Jun 05, 2006 8:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Aquawind wrote:Yep.. looks to an active early EPAC.. We will be watching. :wink:


June in the EPac is like July in the Atlantic.


Looks like the average is 2 named sytems and 1 hurricane before June 24 so a few more weeks for a cane and they will be on schedule.

Table 2

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml?
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#16 Postby HurricaneBill » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:39 pm

Lately, late August to early October is usually the best chance for major EPAC storms. Although there was Darby in July 2004 and Adolph in May 2001.
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#17 Postby Stratusxpeye » Mon Jun 05, 2006 9:45 pm

HurricaneBill wrote:Lately, late August to early October is usually the best chance for major EPAC storms. Although there was Darby in July 2004 and Adolph in May 2001.


yes Adolph one of the retired east pac storms. Only one of three I believe. Not due to strength but politics. Only one I know of for strength back in 2002. Adolph was strongest may cat 4 though.
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#18 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:12 pm

the link at the top shows a low latitude 1011mb low in the central atlantic...could this be worth watching if this continues
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#19 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:28 am

Stratusxpeye wrote:yes Adolph one of the retired east pac storms. Only one of three I believe. Not due to strength but politics. Only one I know of for strength back in 2002. Adolph was strongest may cat 4 though.


Ismael (1995), Pauline (1997), and Kenna (2002) were destructive storms that were retired.
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#20 Postby AussieMark » Tue Jun 06, 2006 3:06 am

Pauline was by far the worst
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