MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1078
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN KS...SERN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437...
   
   VALID 060055Z - 060200Z
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NWRN KS INTO
   SERN NEB...
   
   CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS AS IT EVOLVES
   FROM DISCRETE UPDRAFTS TO MORE SQUALL LINE CHARACTERISTICS FROM
   CNTRL NEB...SWWD INTO ECNTRL CO.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY PICK
   UP SPEED SURGING SEWD TOWARD CNTRL KS AS PRECIPITATION EXPANDS AHEAD
   OF TROUGH AXIS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO
   COVER INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS SQUALL LINE.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   41719792 40919625 38459937 39010171

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1079
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1042 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 439...
   
   VALID 060342Z - 060515Z
   
   ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KS...
   
   MCS HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATURE OVER NRN KS THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY DUE
   TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS.  STRONGEST CONVECTION...WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT
   TIMES...IS OVER MITCHELL COUNTY KS...MOVING SWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT.
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ
   CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM CNTRL OK...40KT...INTO SCNTRL KS.  THERE
   IS REASON TO BELIEVE THAT AN EXPANDING MCS MAY EVOLVE OVER CNTRL KS
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS ASCENT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION INCREASES.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...
   
   40589712 37659556 37770104 40500272

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 PM CDT MON JUN 05 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL KS...NERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   
   VALID 060413Z - 060545Z
   
   ...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS INCREASING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
   
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NCNTRL OK.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   LIKELY DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT...AIDED BY A STRONG LLJ FOCUSED
   FROM CNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION
   SUGGEST ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND CAPPING INVERSION ARE INCREASING
   WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 14C.  MOIST
   CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY BE ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP INGESTING LOWER
   THETA-E PARCELS THAN WOULD OTHERWISE BE NOTED IN THIS TYPE OF
   PATTERN.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY
   CAN AGITATE THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR MORE BUOYANT PARCELS TO ASCEND
   TO THEIR LFC.  FARTHER NORTH...SEWD MOVING CONVECTION MAY INTERACT
   WITH THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING ENHANCING THE PROSPECT
   FOR DEEPER...POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
   
   37579892 37569655 35559483 34589621 35279778 36709907

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN KS...ERN OK...FAR WRN AR
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 440...
   
   VALID 060857Z - 061030Z
   
   AN MCS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SSEWD
   LATE TONIGHT INTO ERN OK. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH 12Z. THE AREA
   DOWNSTREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A
   WW.
   
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   OVER WRN AND CNTRL KS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.
   THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS SUPPORTING AN MCS ONGOING IN SERN KS. THE
   MCS IS TRACKING SSEWD DOWN AN AXIS OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY ORIENTED
   FROM SE KS INTO ERN OK AS SUGGESTED BY RUC ANALYSIS. THE ACTIVITY IS
   ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LIFT FROM THE NOSE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
   THE LOW-LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH 30 KT OF NW FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS
   CREATING A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM
   SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL DAMAGING
   WIND GUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 06/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   35149679 34569600 34319523 34709423 35679393 36649463
   37169546 37159635 36639710 35849714

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1082
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH E CNTRL OK AND EXTREME NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061619Z - 061815Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY FROM E CNTRL THROUGH
   SERN OK BY 18-19Z. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   LATE THIS MORNING A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A DYING CLUSTER OF
   STORMS IS MOVING SWD THROUGH OKFUSKEE CO AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SWD MOVING MCV. A 30 KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET IN CNTRL OK WILL VEER
   AND WEAKEN WITH TIME. HOWEVER...12Z RAOB FROM NORMAN SUGGESTS THE
   CAP MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN
   ZONE OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX ALONG THE SWD MOVING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE UPPER 80S. SLY LOW
   LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY 35 KT AT 6 KM WILL MAINTAIN VERTICAL
   SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE
   INCLUDING FORWARD PROPAGATING MULTICELLS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR
   SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   35199624 35229533 34939491 33879484 33639627 35129717

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK THROUGH NERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061906Z - 062100Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z OVER SERN OK AND
   SPREAD SEWD INTO NERN TX. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
   BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST S OF MCALESTER OK IS
   MOVING SEWD. DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING S OF THIS BOUNDARY. FULL
   SUN AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. AN
   MCV CONTINUES MOVING SEWD THROUGH ERN OK WITH A 40 KT NWLY MID LEVEL
   JET LOCATED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV. TEMPERATURES ARE
   WARMING TO NEAR 90 OVER SERN OK AND NERN TX AND SUGGEST THE CAP IS
   BECOMING WEAK ENOUGH FOR STORM TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD MOVING MCV AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE LOW LEVEL
   JET HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER...LIGHT SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO
   NWLY AND INCREASING TO 40 KT AT 500 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE
   0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
   POTENTIAL FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   34279542 34319453 33509435 32859430 32709536 33449600
   34249627

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1084
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND SRN IA THROUGH NRN MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 061934Z - 062130Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER ERN IA AND
   EXPAND SWWD WITH TIME INTO SRN IA AND PARTS OF NRN MO. THE STRONGER
   STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER ERN IA ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
   BOUNDARY. OTHER STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER SERN IA ALONG OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL IL NWWD INTO SERN IA. THE
   ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN A NARROW AXIS NEAR AND S OF
   THESE BOUNDARIES AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF
   CUMULUS EXTENDING ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO SWRN IA
   AND NWRN MO. THE CAP HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
   STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT. WSWLY LOW LEVEL
   FLOW VEERING TO NWLY AT 35 TO 40 KT AT 6 KM WILL RESULT IN
   SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP MID LEVEL
   ROTATION. THIS ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY ENHANCE THE
   THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CORES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...
   
   39929495 40589389 42129199 42549123 41889065 40639105
   40359244 40019332 39299465

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1085
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0339 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 062039Z - 062245Z
   
   THREAT FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST/SOUTH
   CENTRAL AZ REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   MAY BE NEEDED SOON.
   
   STORMS HAVE RECENT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ AS
   OF 2030Z. A FURTHER INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH STORMS
   LIKELY TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWEST ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR AND I-10/I-19
   CORRIDOR.
   
   AMBIENT AIRMASS IS RATHER MOIST IN MID LEVELS...WITH PRECIPITABLE
   WATER VALUES AROUND 1.0 INCH. BETWEEN ROCKIES RIDGE/BAJA LOW...A
   BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW -- 25-35 KTS PER
   12Z TUCSON RAOB AND TUCSON/PHOENIX WSR-88D VWPS -- WILL FAVOR A
   GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST SPREAD OF EVOLVING CLUSTERS ONTO THE DESERT
   FLOOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
   DEPRESSIONS AND DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG. SOME HAIL MAY BE
   POSSIBLE AS WELL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...
   
   33661254 33551103 32880960 31590955 31401062 31751199
   32371298

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1086
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 062104Z - 062300Z
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS -- IN ADDITION TO
   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL -- WILL EXIST ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NORTH
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
   
   BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...STRONG HEATING/LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST
   UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALONG THE
   I-25 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN CO AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM OVER THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
   ARE RATHER WEAK...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 15-25 KTS.
   SLOW MOVING STORMS SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN NEAR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND
   ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE
   CAPABLE OF PULSE-TYPE LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS. WEAK FLOW REGIME
   AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS
   WELL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   40230499 39680430 37900372 36400376 35480453 35330513
   35570628 36090634 36970594 38950576 39990535

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1087
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0624 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 442...
   
   VALID 062324Z - 070030Z
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NERN TX TOWARD NWRN LA...
   
   
   WELL DEFINED MVC IS DROPPING SWD ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER WITHIN
   REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.  THIS FEATURE REMAINS
   INFLUENTIAL IN ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION OVER NERN TX AS
   MODEST NWLY FLOW EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OK TOWARD THE SABINE RIVER WITH
   NEAR 40KT OBSERVED AT 6KM AT PAT PROFILER.  IN ADDITION...THERE
   APPEARS TO BE SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT AIDING THIS ACTIVITY AS LATEST
   SFC DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM CNTRL LA NWWD
   INTO SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WEST OF TXK.  LATEST THINKING IS THIS
   DEVELOPING MCS WILL CONTINUE DRIVING SWD AT 30KT...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING FORWARD PROPAGATION DURING THE EVENING AS
   COLD POOL EVOLVES.  DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
   
   31959491 34549576 34529331 31739241

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443...
   
   VALID 062348Z - 070115Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z FOR SOUTHERN
   AZ...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   ORGANIZED MCS/HABOOB WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL IN THE
   TUCSON/MARANA AREAS CONTINUES TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWEST ROUGHLY
   PARALLEL TO INTERSTATE 10 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AZ. WELL ORGANIZED
   COLD POOL AND EAST-SOUTHEAST STEERING WINDS OF 25-35 KTS PER TUCSON
   WSR-88D VWP SUGGESTS A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST PROPAGATION ACROSS
   THE DESERT FLOOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   
   THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE CASA GRANDE VICINITY AFTER
   0000Z...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO BY AROUND 0130Z.
   OTHER STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST AZ MAY ALSO
   MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT
   ATOP DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE POTENTIAL
   FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/06/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   33491320 33741251 33831138 33671024 32630948 31560915
   31430984 31451101 31871253 32321319

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1089
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443...
   
   VALID 070052Z - 070215Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z FOR SOUTHERN
   AZ...WITH CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED HAIL POTENTIAL. WILL
   MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE/EXTENSION INTO
   SOUTHWEST AZ.
   
   AT 0045Z...MCS/HABOOB WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS/BLINDING DUST
   CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PINAL COUNTY INTO
   SOUTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY. THIS COMPLEX APPEARS LIKELY TO AFFECT
   PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR. GUSTS OF 46 KTS
   WERE RECENTLY MEASURED AT CASA GRANDA AT 0015Z.
   
   FARTHER EAST...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE
   MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS HAS STABILIZED TO A
   DEGREE PER EARLIER CONVECTION...THESE STORMS COULD POSE A SIMILAR
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN 30-35 KTS OF STEERING FLOW PER TUCSON/S WSR-88D
   VWP.
   
   AMBIENT AIRMASS REMAINS DEEPLY MIXED OUTSIDE OF EARLIER CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOWS...WITH DCAPE OF 12OO J/KG PER 21Z PHOENIX RAOB/00Z TUCSON
   RAOBS...FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED HAIL MAY ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
   
   34181398 34011250 33831138 33671024 32630948 31560915
   31430984 31451101 31871253 32471396

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1090
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0836 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL MO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444...
   
   VALID 070136Z - 070230Z
   
   ...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER WEST CENTRAL MO...
   
   RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT
   PROPAGATES SWWD ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF WATCH. WV IMAGERY DEPICTS
   SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING FROM ERN KS INTO NRN MO IN THE WAKE OF
   WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND VEERING DEEP LAYER FLOW. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION
   MAY LINGER AHEAD OF TROUGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IT APPEARS
   LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MAY LIMIT SEVERE THREAT.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...
   
   39389300 38869265 38539354 38859421 39219400

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1091
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0905 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 445...
   
   VALID 070205Z - 070300Z
   
   ...TORNADIC THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE...
   
   UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARE GRADUALLY
   SHIFTING EAST ACROSS WI TOWARD LOWER MI...PER RECENT INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION ON LEE SIDE OF LAKE MI.  STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY
   REMAINS WEST OF THE LAKE AND IS GRADUALLY DECREASING WITH LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING.  RADAR DATA SUPPORTS THESE TRENDS WITH SUPERCELL
   CHARACTERISTICS BECOMING LESS IDENTIFIABLE.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   SHOULD BE THE GREATEST RISK WITH REMAINING ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...
   
   42628970 43358904 43998943 44408827 43698747 42858798

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 PM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...LA...SERN TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 446...
   
   VALID 070435Z - 070530Z
   
   ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA
   INTO SERN TX...
   
   LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES ITS SWD MOVEMENT ACROSS NWRN LA INTO ECNTRL
   TX WITH LEADING EDGE OF MORE INTENSE ACTIVITY PROPAGATING SWD AT
   ROUGHLY 30KT.  CURRENT SPEED/MOVEMENT PLACES STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
   NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE WATCH AT ROUGHLY 07Z.  WITH EXPIRATION
   CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR 05Z IT APPEARS AN EXTENSION FOR A FEW HOURS
   MAY BE NECESSARY.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
   DAMAGING WINDS ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT.
   
   ..DARROW.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
   
   32259473 32289242 30329130 30129363

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1093
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...CNTRL AND NRN IND THROUGH NWRN OH AND
   EXTREME SRN LOWER MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071711Z - 071915Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN AND
   CNTRL IND INTO SRN IL. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
   TWO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WRN LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH NWRN IND AND
   INTO S CNTRL IL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN IND SWWD
   THROUGH SRN IL. CLEARING IN WAKE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS
   ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE IN WARM SECTOR. LAPSE RATES
   IN THE 700 MB TO 500 MB LAYER ARE RATHER MODEST WITH VALUES FROM 5.5
   TO 6 C/KM. HOWEVER...AN AXIS OF RELATIVELY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE
   WARM SECTOR. THIS ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE AS VORT MAX OVER THE GREAT LAKES
   CONTINUES SSEWD...AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST MINIMAL CAP REMAINS AS
   TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR 80. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SEWD. INITIAL
   ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NRN IND WHERE CUMULUS IS
   INCREASING ALONG COLD FRONT/LAKE BREEZE. A MID LEVEL JET
   ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
   
   41418450 40328450 39378583 37698876 38878912 40238752
   41048647 41738572

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1094
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NV/NW AZ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071801Z - 072000Z
   
   ...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...
   
   LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS MCV ACROSS NW AZ...MOVING TOWARD SRN NV.
   ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS HAS INHIBITED SFC INSOLATION ACROSS NW
   AZ...TEMPS ACROSS SRN NV HAVE ALREADY INCREASED INTO THE MID 90S.
   MODIFYING 12Z SOUNDING FOR SRN NV /DRA/ WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES
   YIELDS DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES NEAR 1200-1700 J/KG. ADDITIONAL HEATING
   WILL ONLY INCREASE THE INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG
   DOWNDRAFT WINDS. RECENT SFC OBSERVATION FROM IGM /KINGMAN AZ/
   INDICATED 35KT GUSTS WITH WEAKER SHOWERS IN THE AREA. LAS VEGAS
   LOCAL RADAR SHOWS NEW STORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LSV. SHORT TERM
   THREAT EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR STRONG/SVR TSTM WINDS ACROSS SRN NV.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...
   
   35381301 35061463 35431505 36731685 37101683 37421556
   37591480 37681430 37171314 36221291

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1095
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL AZ AND WRN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071936Z - 072130Z
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SRN/CNTRL AZ ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WATCH. STORMS
   DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS AREA HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR
   DOWNBURST WINDS...
   
   RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND DEPARTING MCV IN NW AZ HAVE ALLOWED
   STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN/CNTRL AZ. TEMPERATURES HAVE
   WARMED NOW INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
   UPPER 40S. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE STORMS HAVE
   ALREADY FORMED ACROSS THE WHITE MTNS...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
   DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE RIM. 18Z TUCSON SOUNDING SHOWED VERY STEEP
   LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C/KM AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE
   VALUES OF AROUND 1700 J/KG. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT STRONG OR
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS...AND THE AREA IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR
   A WATCH THIS AFTN.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
   
   31300880 31861303 34661353 35371253 35640991 35020848
   31330817

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1096
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN ID THROUGH SWRN MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 071938Z - 072215Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND ERN ID INTO SWRN MT.
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
   BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA BY 21 OR
   22Z.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF ID INTO SWRN MT. AS
   TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN.  GRADIENT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST
   AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL INCREASE AS THE UPPER
   TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EWD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN 35 TO 40 KT MID LEVEL
   FLOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR
   FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL ENHANCE THE
   POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...WHILE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE- DEWPOINT SPREADS
   WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
   
   42641174 42571548 45921532 46801239 44751113

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1097
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN SD...NWRN NEB AND A SMALL PART OF ERN WY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 072006Z - 072200Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NWRN NEB...SWRN SD AND
   INTO A PORTION OF ERN WY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. AREA IS BEING
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SWWD
   AND NOW EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN NEB FROM NEAR JOHNSTOWN TO NEAR CHADRON.
   CONVECTIVE DEBRIS HAS SHIFTED E...ALLOWING STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO
   OCCUR IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. STEEP LAPSE RATES...TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE FROM 1500
   TO 2000 J/KG. PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE SUGGESTS FORCING THROUGH A
   DEEP LAYER IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG. HOWEVER...A SLY 30+ KT LOW
   LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS WRN NEB INTO SWRN SD AND STRENGTHEN
   DURING THE EVENING. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LIFT ALONG AND N OF
   THE BOUNDARY AND CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS THE CAP
   CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ZONE OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER 30 KT OR SO WLY MID
   LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE NEAR AND N OF
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF THE BOUNDARY
   VEERING TO WLY THROUGH THE MID LEVELS IS CONTRIBUTING TO 40 KT OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. FARTHER W...OTHER STORMS
   WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT OF ERN
   WY AND SPREAD EWD.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/07/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...
   
   43220100 43760302 43280425 42410407 42150085