00z NAM

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Jim Hughes
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#161 Postby Jim Hughes » Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:52 am

KWT wrote:No what stopped TD-2E from getting stronger was the fact that it had dry air to its west and it was practically on top of land when it stopped getting stronger (It did gain 5mph before getting too close to land)
Still I look foward to hearing more from you jim to see if you can prove to us on here your ideas are true.


Yes I realize that KWT but I have always said that the atmosphere seems to be in continual contact with the IMF by way of space weather changes.
So the table is somewhat already set for what is occurring.

Let's just say foir the sake of arguement that what I have talked about in regards to the solar wind and particle levels is true. Well doesn't the dynamics of the atmosphere already have to basically be in place for this relationship to occur?

I have talked about the presence of cold fronts and troughs in the eastern US around where I live in relation to the presence of coronal holes. These weather patterns do not just show up. They move across the country.

So the morphology of the IMF (Interplanetary magnetic field) is indicative of what lies ahead. And if there is a feedback it should happen all the time. I like to think of space weather as the mother lode of all the oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections.


Jim
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#162 Postby Opal storm » Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:54 am

Sorry it was a misunderstanding about the whole TD/TS near TX thing,it sounded like he was saying JB said that when really that was his (extemeweatherguy) opinion.My bad.
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#163 Postby Rainband » Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:55 am

Opal storm wrote:Sorry it was a misunderstanding about the whole TD/TS near TX thing,it sounded like he was saying JB said that when really that was his (extemeweatherguy) opinion.My bad.
Thats why I posted what I did. :wink:
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#164 Postby southerngale » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:06 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:I totally understood what Airforcemet and Wxman57 were saying about the NAM. However the GFS and the Nogaps is starting to show possible areas of low pressure towards the end of thier 5 day runs. I was merely posting the NAM because that is what this thread is about.

Nothing wrong with that. That's what this thread was for, but it is great to have people like AFM and wxman57 to put things in perspective....they just help us to learn more. :)
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#165 Postby sunny » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:11 pm

Air Force Met wrote:I hate to bust bubbles here...but if that upper level feature verifies...then there is no way a sfc feature like that verifies unless it is attached to a front. This model has problems.

Again. It is the NAM. :D


I'm glad you burst that bubble! Thanks for the response :D Makes me feel a little better!
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#166 Postby southerngale » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:15 pm

jschlitz wrote:Thanks for that reminder Rainband. I dunno if JB is a magnet for this or what, but when I used to read his columns, they were constantly misquoted/misinterpreted here on S2K which just fueled the fire that he was crazy.

It's just like the old game where you sit in a circle and the last person gets a totally different message. JB may say something like "keep an eye on the GOM next week as a wave moves NW from the Caribbean...IF upper level winds become favorable, the system may have a chance to develop".

2 hours and 5 pages later on the boards, people are quoting him that a Cat 5. is about to slam NOLA....


ROFL, ain't that the truth!
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#167 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:44 pm

It's just like the old game where you sit in a circle and the last person gets a totally different message. JB may say something like "keep an eye on the GOM next week as a wave moves NW from the Caribbean...IF upper level winds become favorable, the system may have a chance to develop".


I beleive the game you're talking about is called telephone.
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#168 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:48 pm

Stratusxpeye wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Joe Bastardi's morning post says that the Gulf will get very active over the next 1-2 weeks. He also said that this next period of disturbed weather will have more to it than just rain along the TX coast. Pretty much I think he is thinking a TD or TS may be in the near future.


If the post is read thoroughly, everything is accurate and correct. He concludes his paragraph with " Pretty much (Meaning his [Extremeweatherguy's] conclusion) I, (extremeweatherguy) THINK he is THINKING a TD or TS MAY be in the near FUTURE."

He maybe should have used quotes and separated his conclusion from the main paragraph. I believe it was def just mis interpretation.
yes, that was just my opinion based on the fact that JB thinks that the next system will be "more than just rain". I interpreted that as meaning the next system could have a wind threat too (thus a tropical cyclone). Sorry for the misunderstanding everyone.
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#169 Postby Scorpion » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:49 pm

The NAM/WRF continues its spree.

Image
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#170 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:51 pm

Scorpion wrote:The NAM/WRF continues its spree.

Image
this has been pretty consistent and with the solar forecast also promising we will need to watch closely.
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#171 Postby hicksta » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:53 pm

As long as the nam likes flordia and not texas =) LOL just kidding yall. Is the nam the only model picking up on this whats the gfs doing
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#172 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:54 pm

Scorpion wrote:The NAM/WRF continues its spree.

Image


How far out is that? Cause that looks like a pretty strong system to me.
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#173 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 06, 2006 12:58 pm

hicksta wrote:As long as the nam likes flordia and not texas =) LOL just kidding yall. Is the nam the only model picking up on this whats the gfs doing


12z GFS at 84 Hours

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

GFS does nothing.
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#174 Postby drezee » Tue Jun 06, 2006 1:00 pm

Scorpion wrote:The NAM/WRF continues its spree.

Image


I believe that model is very experimental! I also believe that hurricane is spurious.

Better people?
Last edited by drezee on Tue Jun 06, 2006 1:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#175 Postby Stratusxpeye » Tue Jun 06, 2006 1:00 pm

Has been very consistant run after run on this model. Also shows it a little stronger now. May be my eyes but looks to trend stronger and more easterly. At least in this model. We'll have to watch and see if anything at all even forms.
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#176 Postby SouthFloridawx » Tue Jun 06, 2006 1:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:Probably two of the worst models for tropical systems are the NAM and Canadian. They're pretty clueless, developing storms in the middle of high-shear environments. Lots of people here can't wait for that first named storm, so they're latching onto any model that provides the slightest "hope" of development. One could even say that "W" word...


wxman57...

I wasn't trying to latch onto the first storm as you are saying. This is the NAM00Z thread and it has been forecasting an "area of low pressure" forming. I am not a professional met and I like to look at all the models one time a day and when I notice something I like to follow it and see what it does. I am not wishing anything... I understand the level of experience you have but, please also understand the lack of experience and understanding is what we are trying to gain. We're not going to learn that by not watching the models because someone tells us it's not good at tropical development. In life if there is one thing I have learned so far, the majority of people do not learn by listening to what other people say. They learn by experience which, in turn becomes knowledge. I am not trying to offend you but, there are some people on here that may want to wish a storm but, I am not one of them.
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#177 Postby hicksta » Tue Jun 06, 2006 1:04 pm

Yall might wana wait a little longer until some other models jump on this to even be concernded. GFS doesnt show anything give it a day and see what the other models do.
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#178 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 06, 2006 1:04 pm

drezee wrote:
Scorpion wrote:The NAM/WRF continues its spree.

Image


I believe that picture is fake!


Hey my friend,Can you tell why it is a fake?
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#179 Postby hicksta » Tue Jun 06, 2006 1:04 pm

By the way isnt wrf/nam expertimental.
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#180 Postby ericinmia » Tue Jun 06, 2006 1:05 pm

For whatever its worth...

The FSU mm5 is showing something too... The higher resolution version is still running though...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/mm5/slp.40.png
`
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