Models Discussion about Possible BOC low thread #2

[CHRISTY]

18Z Nam at 84 Hours



18Z NAM Experimental at 84 Hours

Both show systems forming, the difference is the Experimental shows a hurricane and the actual NAM shows a borderline TD/TS.

i wouldn't say a td more like a 40 mph TS.if all this fantasy finally actually turns into reality.

[Aquawind]

Crack.. THey just got a new shipment at the data input center..

[johngaltfla]

All I can say gang is that if we get 10 threads with 199 replies each on just a model, God help the server if we get a Cat 1 or 2 in the Gulf this summer.

[jaxfladude]

All I can say gang is that if we get 10 threads with 199 replies each on just a model, God help the server if we get a Cat 1 or 2 in the Gulf this summer.

Okay here is the Notice that will used in the case of a sever overload:(Just a little humor)
Due to Hurricane "*******" in the Gulf.
The Severs Are Currently Overloaded.
Sorry For The Inconvenience.
Please Check Back Later.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Hello all...I'm new here and find this topic interesting. I follow the models but of course do not live by them. I think as time goes by and elements of what the model is forecasting begin to come true, then you may be in store for something. With the NAM model, when the low moves over from EPAC or even when convection begins to form in the area noted by NAM then its time to really pay attention, until then they are just giving you an idea of what part of the waters you should look at.

[feederband]

Hello all...I'm new here and find this topic interesting. I follow the models but of course do not live by them. I think as time goes by and elements of what the model is forecasting begin to come true, then you may be in store for something. With the NAM model, when the low moves over from EPAC or even when convection begins to form in the area noted by NAM then its time to really pay attention, until then they are just giving you an idea of what part of the waters you should look at.

Welcome to S2K...Wow a bunch of newbies this season...Cool.....

[SWFLA_CANE]

After last season, it's no wonder a lot of people are jumping on board (including me). I've been reading this forum for a couple of months and figured even though my knowledge is limited I may be able to contribute, especially after going through Wilma.

[Aquawind]

I hear ya! Welcome to the board SWFL_CANE !

[feederband]

All I can say gang is that if we get 10 threads with 199 replies each on just a model, God help the server if we get a Cat 1 or 2 in the Gulf this summer.

Okay here is the Notice that will used in the case of a sever overload:(Just a little humor)
Due to Hurricane "*******" in the Gulf.
The Severs Are Currently Overloaded.
Sorry For The Inconvenience.
Please Check Back Later.

Or maybe it will look like the one I got...

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[feederband]

After last season, it's no wonder a lot of people are jumping on board (including me). I've been reading this forum for a couple of months and figured even though my knowledge is limited I may be able to contribute, especially after going through Wilma.

No such thing as limited knowledge here...

[skysummit]

I think something was going on with that though because look at the Stickys...they're yellow and the Announcements are red now. Maybe it was quick maintenance?

[MBismyPlayground]

I think something was going on with that though because look at the Stickys...they're yellow and the Announcements are red now. Maybe it was quick maintenance?

geez, I hope so.....don't want to encounter any problems this season...
I will be paying even more attention this year since Myrtle Beach has closed several of its shelters.... which means I will hit the road on a moments notice.

[Rainband]

No problems just testing

[feederband]

No problems just testing

Should be a law againt that...

[Scott_inVA]

Again, the NAM (Eta) is an inferior forecast tool for tropical intensity and track. The model is far less accurate with TC's when contrasted to the GFS (which gets mercilessly bashed...often times to prove it verifies).

As a rule, discard the NAM with virtually all warm-core systems.

Sidenote: while not tropical, the pending Nor'easter (interesting for June) is, IMO, grossly underdone by the NAM. Think the GFS verifies.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[deltadog03]

well, the nam is usually the one NOT to look...I agree...but, to say the GFS is a much better model is

[Derek Ortt]

the experimental NAM looks very much like a WRF simulation. If it is a WRF, it SHOULD be used for TC activity

[Jim Cantore]

i don´t like NAM, but i just can´t ignore this :

I'm going to get hung out to dry for saying this but...

AINT GONNA HAPPEN!

[boca]

I'm weighing both models the GFS and the NAM. Nah throw them both out.

[wxmann_91]

the experimental NAM looks very much like a WRF simulation. If it is a WRF, it SHOULD be used for TC activity

I do believe that the experimental NAM is the WRF-nmm/NAM (which will be made official next week), while the old NAM/ETA is the old one.

The new WRF/NAM does have its flaws-- see here.