Models Discussion about Possible BOC low thread #2

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Jim Cantore

#41 Postby Jim Cantore » Tue Jun 06, 2006 9:03 pm

that storm on the model is kinda shaped like wilma at her peak
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ericinmia
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#42 Postby ericinmia » Tue Jun 06, 2006 11:53 pm

The new Nogaps is putting something in the gulf closer to the BOC....
Image

Another look...
Image

The new CMC is putting the storm further east... (flip flop lol)
Image

Here is the FSUmm5, showing something in the gulf...
Image

---------------------------------------------------------------

The UKMET at 12z today was predicting a new TS out south of central mexico...
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2c ... wtnt80.txt

The Euro has that pegged to become a stronger storm (12z run though)...
Image


Thats all for now i suppose... (UPDATED WITH FINAL FSUmm5 120 map)
Last edited by ericinmia on Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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mtm4319
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#43 Postby mtm4319 » Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:19 am

ericinmia wrote:The new Nogaps is putting something in the gulf closer to the BOC....

Another look...
Image


Can you (or anyone) tell me the URL you pulled that model from? Thanks. :)
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#44 Postby ronjon » Wed Jun 07, 2006 5:29 am

Convective flare up in the Gulf of Hondurus this morning near the persistent LLC. Maybe the models are on to something. We'll have to see if it maintains the convection through today. The 06Z NAM is still stubborn on its depiction of a low forming off the east coast of the Yucatan - what is this now, 3 days of NAM runs showing the development of this feature. Notice the CMC is still along this path with a GOM storm now heading north toward the eastern GOM. Early peek at 06Z GFS does now show some disorganized convection moving into the central GOM at 138 hrs. Might be watching this area this weekend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
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caneman

#45 Postby caneman » Wed Jun 07, 2006 5:42 am

I agree. Pressure looks pretty low off the island North of Honduras, believe it was 1006 mb but that may be normal for this area. I'll be watching. Good to be back.
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Jim Cantore

#46 Postby Jim Cantore » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:14 am

these new runs seem more logical then the nasty looking Hurricane that the NAM had going, I think it's quite possible to see a tropical storm but I'm not looking for a major Hurricane..... yet.
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drezee
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#47 Postby drezee » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:28 am

The curvature of the wind field looks a good deal sharper than yesterday on the visibles. You can see in the low clouds. Something is trying to get organized down there.
Last edited by drezee on Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#48 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:31 am

Visible Image of Western Caribbean

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Let's wait for more visible images to see if we can pinpoint any curvature in the clouds.
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#49 Postby no advance » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:38 am

There is banding no doubt. It has a very interesting look. Good link cyclone.
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drezee
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#50 Postby drezee » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:38 am

cycloneye wrote:Visible Image of Western Caribbean

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Let's wait for more visible images to see if we can pinpoint any curvature in the clouds.


That isn't the best one to use. The NASA GHCC site is always ahead of the ssd site. For example, the 1145 in on the ssd and the 1215 has been on the NASA site for 10 minutes.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html


THis link will help for surface obs.

http://coolwx.com/buoydata/regions/caribplot.php
Last edited by drezee on Wed Jun 07, 2006 9:18 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ericinmia
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#51 Postby ericinmia » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:17 am

mtm4319 wrote:
ericinmia wrote:The new Nogaps is putting something in the gulf closer to the BOC....

Another look...
Image


Can you (or anyone) tell me the URL you pulled that model from? Thanks. :)


sorry i dont' have the link with me right now...

But it comes from the military's rapid update nogaps site. (gets the nogaps hours before other places on the internet)
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#52 Postby beachbum_al » Wed Jun 07, 2006 9:07 am

Okay so should I continue watching this thread?
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ericinmia
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#53 Postby ericinmia » Wed Jun 07, 2006 9:54 am

Here is the new 12z NOGAPS...

Stronger storm, further east... Has it apparently heading for texas...

108hr
Image

132hr
Image

132hr
Image
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#54 Postby stormchazer » Wed Jun 07, 2006 10:00 am

The models seemed determined to develop something, but is shear forecast to change? This mornings TWO from NHC seemed to indicate they had given up on the SW Carib.
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#55 Postby skysummit » Wed Jun 07, 2006 10:05 am

I know shear forecasts aren't that reliable, but it is forecasted to become more favorable in the Gulf in 72 hours.
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#56 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jun 07, 2006 10:14 am

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 07, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Tropical storm formation is not expected through Thursday.

Forecaster Stewart
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#57 Postby tailgater » Wed Jun 07, 2006 10:25 am

skysummit I have that same Avatar as background on my cell. Love that place on Saturday nites.

This system could be a big rain maker.
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CHRISTY

#58 Postby CHRISTY » Wed Jun 07, 2006 10:38 am

He guys whats up!just got home.so whats been going on with the area down in the carribean?
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#59 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jun 07, 2006 10:40 am

ericinmia wrote:Here is the new 12z NOGAPS...

Stronger storm, further east... Has it apparently heading for texas...

108hr
Image

132hr
Image

132hr
Image
If this verifies, we could be talking about a landfalling TS within a week! :eek:
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CHRISTY

#60 Postby CHRISTY » Wed Jun 07, 2006 10:45 am

hey guys here is IR loop of the caribbean...iam not really seeing much down there right but maybe things will change.maybe!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_CARIBWIDE/anim8ir.html
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