Models Discussion about Possible BOC low thread #2

[cycloneye]

The Euro is now coming aboard with something developing in the BOC.

When someone types a sentence like this it has to be attached with a link to sustain what the sentence says.

[deltadog03]

[ronjon]

Well, the 18Z GFS is now on board with the Euro, NAM, NAM-WRF, and CMC with developing a closed low (1008 mb) in the GOM at 120 hrs +. The NAM takes it more NNW while the Euro and GFS slide the low into the BOC. Will be interesting where this system develops and where it gets steered.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

great...

Anything that develops down in that area will track noth toward Texas. Houston, we may have a problem come next week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, the 18Z GFS is now on board with the Euro, NAM, NAM-WRF, and CMC with developing a closed low (1008 mb) in the GOM at 120 hrs +. The NAM takes it more NNW while the Euro and GFS slide the low into the BOC. Will be interesting where this system develops and where it gets steered.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Now that the GFS is on board; I would say that there is a pretty good chance of development in the BOC this weekend or next week. The track from there would then likely be toward Mexico or even more likely...Texas.

[Rainband]

Well, the 18Z GFS is now on board with the Euro, NAM, NAM-WRF, and CMC with developing a closed low (1008 mb) in the GOM at 120 hrs +. The NAM takes it more NNW while the Euro and GFS slide the low into the BOC. Will be interesting where this system develops and where it gets steered.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Now that the GFS is on board; I would say that there is a pretty good chance of development in the BOC this weekend or next week. The track from there would then likely be toward Mexico or even more likely...Texas.

Way too early to say if and where the system if it formed could go.

[Ivanhater]

geez, models seem to be agreeing...not good

[Scorpion]

Here we go!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, the 18Z GFS is now on board with the Euro, NAM, NAM-WRF, and CMC with developing a closed low (1008 mb) in the GOM at 120 hrs +. The NAM takes it more NNW while the Euro and GFS slide the low into the BOC. Will be interesting where this system develops and where it gets steered.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Now that the GFS is on board; I would say that there is a pretty good chance of development in the BOC this weekend or next week. The track from there would then likely be toward Mexico or even more likely...Texas.

Way too early to say if and where the system if it formed could go.

The reason I am saying that is because all of the models seem to want to take the storm on a northward track and out of the BOC that would mean toward Mexico, Texas or may be Louisiana.

[Rainband]

[Rainband]

Well, the 18Z GFS is now on board with the Euro, NAM, NAM-WRF, and CMC with developing a closed low (1008 mb) in the GOM at 120 hrs +. The NAM takes it more NNW while the Euro and GFS slide the low into the BOC. Will be interesting where this system develops and where it gets steered.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Now that the GFS is on board; I would say that there is a pretty good chance of development in the BOC this weekend or next week. The track from there would then likely be toward Mexico or even more likely...Texas.

Way too early to say if and where the system if it formed could go.

The reason I am saying that is because all of the models seem to want to take the storm on a northward track and out of the BOC that would mean toward Mexico, Texas or may be Louisiana.

I agree. Seems like a possible scenario, just depends on where it forms and what the steering flow is.

[deltadog03]

well, we are still WAAAAAY too early to say but, the Euro and GFS look** to begin to weaken and shunt the ridge back to the west that is over us now by then....We shall see.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well, the 18Z GFS is now on board with the Euro, NAM, NAM-WRF, and CMC with developing a closed low (1008 mb) in the GOM at 120 hrs +. The NAM takes it more NNW while the Euro and GFS slide the low into the BOC. Will be interesting where this system develops and where it gets steered.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Now that the GFS is on board; I would say that there is a pretty good chance of development in the BOC this weekend or next week. The track from there would then likely be toward Mexico or even more likely...Texas.

Way too early to say if and where the system if it formed could go.

Good point... it is still pretty far out 120+ hours. The models might not even be showing it in 48 hours.

[johngaltfla]

on that path it would hit tampa

Shhh. We're not ready and only have had time to go to the beach twice this month. Don't start that bleep already.

I'm going to wait until Sunday to get excited about this.

Of course by then I'll be searching for thread #8 on the subject, but what the heck.

[SouthFloridawx]

A better look at the 18Z gfs using the 850mb vorticity. As you can see it has an area of "low pressure" forming and moving from the EPAC and into the BOC then into Mexico.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[CHRISTY]

A better look at the 18Z gfs using the 850mb vorticity. As you can see it has an area of "low pressure" forming and moving from the EPAC and into the BOC then into Mexico.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

i doupt that will play out because DRY AIR rules in the gulf of mexico right now.

[JamesFromMaine2]

The track of this possible system at this time isn't really important since chances are the track will change many times between now and the time the system makes landfall if and when it does. Look at Katrina and rita and almost all the systems last year their final landfall areas where totally diffrent then forcasted early on in its development!

[skysummit]

A better look at the 18Z gfs using the 850mb vorticity. As you can see it has an area of "low pressure" forming and moving from the EPAC and into the BOC then into Mexico.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

i doupt that will play out because DRY AIR rules in the gulf of mexico right now.

Yea but will it still be like that in 108 hours???

[wxman57]

Unfortunately, I am tending to think that something just might develop in the BoC early next week. I think that steering currents and the general pattern look similar to "Bret" of 2005, probably just a TS and probably into central Mexico rather than Texas.

[Ivanhater]

Unfortunately, I am tending to think that something just might develop in the BoC early next week. I think that steering currents and the general pattern look similar to "Bret" of 2005, probably just a TS and probably into central Mexico rather than Texas.

something crossing in from the eastpac or from the Caribbean?