Models Discussion about Possible BOC low thread #2

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tailgater
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#121 Postby tailgater » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:52 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation
1800 run of GFDL.
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#122 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:54 pm

tailgater wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006060718-invest93e&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
1800 run of GFDL.
wow. the GFDL has this thing up to Cat. 2 strength by the end of the period.
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#123 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:54 pm

Wow that GFDL run is very agressive on intensity.
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#124 Postby Aquawind » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:54 pm

:crying: I want my mommie..
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#125 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Wow that GFDL run is very agressive on intensity.


Interesting... Let's see if it does it on back to back runs.
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#126 Postby NONAME » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:55 pm

The 18Z GFDL has the Eastern Pacific invest crossing mexico and and quickly keeping a Closed Circulation.
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#127 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:55 pm

things getting VERY interesting folks
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#128 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:56 pm

Aquawind wrote::crying: I want my mommie..


:roflmao:
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#129 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:56 pm

the GFS and GFDL both do turn this thing toward N. Mexico though, so that makes me wonder. I guess we really will not have a good idea of where it will go until after it forms. I think everyone from New Orleans to Brownsville needs to monitor this area closely...especially this weekend.
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#130 Postby Rainband » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:58 pm

Isn't the gfdl always aggressive on intensity at first
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#131 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:58 pm

Rainband wrote:Isn't the gfdl always aggressive on intensity at first


it was last year
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#132 Postby SWFLA_CANE » Wed Jun 07, 2006 7:58 pm

looks like GFS keeps it a much weaker system.
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#133 Postby cajungal » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:00 pm

I thought conditions were very hostile in the Gulf Of Mexico for any kind of development. The conditions are forecast to change sometime soon?
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#134 Postby rockyman » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:02 pm

cajungal wrote:I thought conditions were very hostile in the Gulf Of Mexico for any kind of development. The conditions are forecast to change sometime soon?


By the first of next week (when GFDL is showing the system entering the Gomex), conditions should be a lot more favorable for development (shear forecast maps posted earlier on this thread).
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#135 Postby skysummit » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:02 pm

cajungal wrote:I thought conditions were very hostile in the Gulf Of Mexico for any kind of development. The conditions are forecast to change sometime soon?


Yup...by the time this gets into the gulf, the gulf will be favorable.
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#136 Postby tailgater » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:04 pm

Rainband wrote:Isn't the gfdl always aggressive on intensity at first

Yes, it's crosses those mountains and still has 52 knots winds( not Likely)
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#137 Postby CHRISTY » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:05 pm

i say this system does develope but it stays in the pacific. i dont think it will cross over into the gulf.it could happen but to me not likely.
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#138 Postby rockyman » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:06 pm

Anyone have the names of the 4 systems to successfully cross over from EPac to Atlantic side?
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#139 Postby benny » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:08 pm

rockyman wrote:Anyone have the names of the 4 systems to successfully cross over from EPac to Atlantic side?


That info is on wikipedia.. hurricanes records i think.
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#140 Postby rockyman » Wed Jun 07, 2006 8:12 pm

Thanks...from Wikipedia:
Atlantic-Eastern Pacific crossover storms
Hurricane Hattie-Simone - 1961
Hurricane Irene-Olivia - 1971
Hurricane Fifi-Orlene - 1974
Hurricane Greta-Olivia - 1978
Hurricane Joan-Miriam - 1988
Hurricane Cesar-Douglas - 1996
Tropical Storm Bret from 1993 retained its circulation and was designated Tropical Depression 8-E upon reaching the Pacific. The depression dissipated, reorganized, and became Hurricane Greg.

There is some debate as to whether Tropical Storm Simone in the Pacific, itself formerly Hurricane Hattie in the Atlantic, became Tropical Storm Inga in the Atlantic. It is unclear whether Simone and Inga were the same system or different systems present near the same area at the same time.

In addition, numerous storms have crossed Central America and lost their circulation, but reformed over open waters. Remnants of tropical cyclones have done this as well.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_no ... ver_storms
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