Models Discussion about Possible BOC low thread #2

[benny]

i say this system does develope but it stays in the pacific. i dont think it will cross over into the gulf.it could happen but to me not likely.

I have to agree that the eastpac to gulf situation is not likely. i think it is much more likely to start developing independently of the eastpac.. as the upper trough coming down from the north begins to pull whatever is in the nw caribbean/yucatan farther to the nw... then as the upper low cuts off... shear decreases and then development can occur. the gfs seems to overdevelop the epac thing but it is hard to know really.

[jaxfladude]

:crying: I want my mommie..

..................By the end of this hurricane season we all will.....................especially when she is in the room next door or at the other end of her home....that we are living in since Hurricane "SO-SO" chased us out of ours..........

[CHRISTY]

i say this system does develope but it stays in the pacific. i dont think it will cross over into the gulf.it could happen but to me not likely.

I have to agree that the eastpac to gulf situation is not likely. i think it is much more likely to start developing independently of the eastpac.. as the upper trough coming down from the north begins to pull whatever is in the nw caribbean/yucatan farther to the nw... then as the upper low cuts off... shear decreases and then development can occur. the gfs seems to overdevelop the epac thing but it is hard to know really.

yea benny to me this is not likely to happen....i say it might very well develope but it will remain in the epac.

[rockyman]

Hurricane 10--1949:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at194910.asp

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just to remind you...nearly EVERY model and many pro mets are pointing to possible development in the BOC early next week. Whether or not the system first forms in the pacific is not the issue. I do not think nearly all the models would be wrong (as well as many pro mets). "Something" will most likely be in the Gulf next week; whether or not it is named a TD, TS or Hurricane is still to be seen.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hurricane 10--1949:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at194910.asp

I am actually going to write an article about this storm for the next storm2k newsletter. This storm brought 90mph winds to Houston.

[Rainband]

Just to remind you...nearly EVERY model and many pro mets are pointing to possible development in the BOC early next week. Whether or not the system first forms in the pacific is not the issue. I do not think nearly all the models would be wrong (as well as many pro mets). "Something" will most likely be in the Gulf next week; whether or not it is named a TD, TS or Hurricane is still to be seen.

Time will tell.

[benny]

Just to remind you...nearly EVERY model and many pro mets are pointing to possible development in the BOC early next week. Whether or not the system first forms in the pacific is not the issue. I do not think nearly all the models would be wrong (as well as many pro mets). "Something" will most likely be in the Gulf next week; whether or not it is named a TD, TS or Hurricane is still to be seen.

Time will tell.

That's the boring answer! the weekend should be interesting with our first good possibility of the year brewing in the yucatan region or nearby... though i think if something happens in the epac that might also have an interesting effect.. ?!?!

[bigmike]

Just to remind you...nearly EVERY model and many pro mets are pointing to possible development in the BOC early next week. Whether or not the system first forms in the pacific is not the issue. I do not think nearly all the models would be wrong (as well as many pro mets). "Something" will most likely be in the Gulf next week; whether or not it is named a TD, TS or Hurricane is still to be seen.

2 models does not make a storm

[Rainband]

Just to remind you...nearly EVERY model and many pro mets are pointing to possible development in the BOC early next week. Whether or not the system first forms in the pacific is not the issue. I do not think nearly all the models would be wrong (as well as many pro mets). "Something" will most likely be in the Gulf next week; whether or not it is named a TD, TS or Hurricane is still to be seen.

Time will tell.

That's the boring answer! the weekend should be interesting with our first good possibility of the year brewing in the yucatan region or nearby... though i think if something happens in the epac that might also have an interesting effect.. ?!?!

Sorry but after last year boring is fine with me. I guess my point is, when a storm forms and the models are running. I will track it. Until then, I take it all with a grain of salt. Sorry if I bored you.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just to remind you...nearly EVERY model and many pro mets are pointing to possible development in the BOC early next week. Whether or not the system first forms in the pacific is not the issue. I do not think nearly all the models would be wrong (as well as many pro mets). "Something" will most likely be in the Gulf next week; whether or not it is named a TD, TS or Hurricane is still to be seen.

2 models does not make a storm

there are more than two models buying onto this system...these include:

-The GFS
-The NOGAPS
-The NAM
-The NAM/WRF
-The GFDL
-The UKMET
-The Canadian model
and I think there are a few more. All of these are hinting at "something" developing in or around the GOM.

[JamesFromMaine2]

Just to remind you...nearly EVERY model and many pro mets are pointing to possible development in the BOC early next week. Whether or not the system first forms in the pacific is not the issue. I do not think nearly all the models would be wrong (as well as many pro mets). "Something" will most likely be in the Gulf next week; whether or not it is named a TD, TS or Hurricane is still to be seen.

2 models does not make a storm

Its more then 2 models now! the GFS is now on board with something developing other models might also be but I don't know which ones.

[Rainband]

I am going to LMBO when the models drop this "system". Seriosuly though. if we do get a system. Hopefully it brings some benificial rains to those that need it. Nothing more

[Stratosphere747]

I remember when someone use to post the AVN model with a couple of responses and 20 views....

[CHRISTY]

I am going to LMBO when the models drop this "system". Seriosuly though. if we do get a system. Hopefully it brings some benificial rains to those that need it. Nothing more

rainband if we get this system in june this will be one hell of a way to start 2006 dont u think?hopefully this isnt a sign of things to come later on.

[Rainband]

I remember when someone use to post the AVN model with a couple of responses and 20 views....

The good old days

[Rainband]

I am going to LMBO when the models drop this "system". Seriosuly though. if we do get a system. Hopefully it brings some benificial rains to those that need it. Nothing more

rainband if we get this system in june this will be one hell of a way to start 2006 dont u think?hopefully this isnt a sign of things to come later on.

A tropical storm in june?? Thats not that odd.

[cycloneye]

I remember when someone use to post the AVN model with a couple of responses and 20 views....

Yes,those first weeks of storm2k I remember very much.

[wxman57]

I just opened up GARP and plotted the 700mb winds/streamlines from the 18Z GFS valid next Tuesday at 7pm CDT. I figure that would be a good steering level for a weak system.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/700mb.gif

The solution is fairly similar to the ECMWF, which does have me a bit concerned. But the GFS is a bit farther east with the ridge over the southeast U.S. than the ECMWF or UKMET. That means if the GFS is wrong and the EC/UK are right, then a track more to the west and farther south would be more likely. Unless something forms this weekend and farther to the north, then a NE Track toward the NE Gulf looks unlikely.

I totally discount the NAM and Canadian as far as tropical forecasts, and the GFDL isn't being run for this non-system yet.

[JonathanBelles]

i may be wrong, but dennis from local tv said i was somewhat right with this:
-For every 1 storm in june, or july there will be 2 storms in the following month
-for every 1 storm in august there will be 3 storms in september
-for every 2 storms in september there will be 1 storm in october
-and for every 2 storms in october, november and the off season there will be 1 storm in the following month.