Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

[southerngale]

I thought this would be a thread to discuss what JB is saying....instead it has turned into the same ole' thing.

You're right, and it's getting old fast.

As to what Portastorm said, we'll see if what Extreme is doing is ok. I think it is because he's not posting his column here, but just making some basic comments based on what he saw/read.

This thread is devoted to the latest developments from Joe Bastardi so that we can keep track of where he stands and relay information to those that do not pay for the pro site. Everyone who reads his columns...feel free to add information.

If you want to talk about JB's forecast, column, etc. post away. If you want to bash JB or Accuweather, please start another thread and respect what this thread is for. Then we can deal with your comments since we've asked repeatedly that members not bash any professional weather organization on Storm2k, whether you like them or not.

Thanks!

[rainydaze]

I wouldn't mind at all hearing where JB's thinking is sometimes....

Looking aback on last year's tracks...out of 28 storms, not one originated in the Gulf itself. So it will be interesting to see how JB's Gulf prediction plays out in June.

[jasons2k]

I thought Bret, Gert, & Jose did?

[bvigal]

Might I suggest, then, that perhaps the title of the thread be changed from
"Joe Bastardi thread" to something like "Paraphrased excerpts of Bastardi forecasts",
a. everyone doesn't have to open it to find out the purpose of the thread
b. let everyone be warned not to quote him verbatim.

[benny]

I wouldn't mind a summary of JB either... or maybe some graphics of what he shows. As long as you don't steal the entire thing small excerpts are fine! I do miss my daily entertainment though as he sometimes had "interesting" things to say

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok, I have been informed that I can continue to post summaries of a few of the things JB says without directly quoting him. I will usually only post summaries of his most important or interesting posts. Anyone else who is a member to accuweather pro, feel free to post your opinions on his comments or brief summaries of his thoughts as well (just remember not to use exact quotes or post material).

[SWFLA_CANE]

I for one think highly of JB. Last year, a few days before Wilma hit Mexico I was attempting to decide if I should attempt to change my reservations to evacuate the Cancun area prior to a possible landfall. I had limited resources to make the decision. TWC and NHC were still saying that Wilma would either glance Mexico or miss it all together. JB said it was possible that Wilma may sit and spin on the Yucatan. That helped my decision and my wife and I got out just in time. We were on the second to last plane to leave just before the Cancun Airport closed. We took off in winds just under TS.

[bigmike]

I for one think highly of JB. Last year, a few days before Wilma hit Mexico I was attempting to decide if I should attempt to change my reservations to evacuate the Cancun area prior to a possible landfall. I had limited resources to make the decision. TWC and NHC were still saying that Wilma would either glance Mexico or miss it all together. JB said it was possible that Wilma may sit and spin on the Yucatan. That helped my decision and my wife and I got out just in time. We were on the second to last plane to leave just before the Cancun Airport closed. We took off in winds just under TS.

Agree about the respect for JB. I think what turns people off is his perceived arrogance. I don't call it arrogance I call it enthusiasm and passion. JB is not afraid to stick to his guns and push his point. If he is wrong he is wrong and will admit it. The JB bashers who infest this board might well take that into consideration next time before they post.

[boca]

I used to watch his video clips for free and he was commenting on teleconnetics and pointing out what might happen next week or something like that. He does know his stuff.

[Extremeweatherguy]

He has already made his post for Thursday morning (since it is after midnight on the east coast)...some key points he mentions are:

-He still thinks a Gulf pulse period will be in the works from June 10th onward. He also still thinks it is the western, not eastern, Gulf's problem.

-Another Gulf pulse period may come toward the end of the month.

-The southern plains are going to get HOT in coming weeks.

-heavy rains possible in the NW after the 15th.

[wxmann_91]

I for one think highly of JB. Last year, a few days before Wilma hit Mexico I was attempting to decide if I should attempt to change my reservations to evacuate the Cancun area prior to a possible landfall. I had limited resources to make the decision. TWC and NHC were still saying that Wilma would either glance Mexico or miss it all together. JB said it was possible that Wilma may sit and spin on the Yucatan. That helped my decision and my wife and I got out just in time. We were on the second to last plane to leave just before the Cancun Airport closed. We took off in winds just under TS.

Agree about the respect for JB. I think what turns people off is his perceived arrogance. I don't call it arrogance I call it enthusiasm and passion. JB is not afraid to stick to his guns and push his point. If he is wrong he is wrong and will admit it. The JB bashers who infest this board might well take that into consideration next time before they post.

I concur with your concurrence with the statement by SWFL_CANE. He's very good at pattern recognition and LR forecasting. For one, he coined the term "JB rule" which purely states, with a WPAC trough will teleconnect to an east coast trough. This in turn will force a Plains ridge (the heat) and a western trough (NW rains) upstream, so I'm assuming this is why he's forecasting this. And of course with the Plains ridge all tropical systems will be forced into the western GOM.

Unfortunately, sometimes his rules don't work out and that's when he busts. He also sometimes hypes situations. But, I still think he's a great forecaster.

[wxmann_91]

BTW, thanks EWG for keeping us updated.

[Derecho]

This is what I am getting out of this post: The Gulf will really be heating up over the next few weeks, and the western Gulf is favored. As we head 10-20 days down the road we may see yet more Gulf threats and possible Caribbean threats. It seems to me that JB is thinking that we will see a storm before the month is out.

One interesting exercise for those of you who are subscribers is to copy and paste from his daily column (not on the internet, of course, just your own word file or something) every time he makes some sort of prediction about Atlantic tropical development in the coming weeks.

Once you've recorded them all, get a calendar and see how many weeks from June 1 through about the end of October do not have Atlantic tropical development forecast or hinted at for that week in some fashion.

[rainydaze]

I thought Bret, Gert, & Jose did?

I was considering those storms as forming in the Bay of Campeche, but maybe they would be considered Gulf storms


What are JB's general ideas about SOFLA this summer?

[fci]

I think it is fine for subscribers to post overviews of JB's thoughts.

I think he overhypes but he does have training and one more opinion is great to have on this board especially one that has some background for making opinions.

As for his prognostication of a GOM threat, I think it is pretty obvious given the time of the hurricane season.

I won't bash him, although it does become quite a sport here at S2K and will take the opinions subscribers post of his for what is worth; another Met with a viewpoint and in my opinion you can never get enough of that anyway.

[terstorm1012]

well we appear to have our June 10th gulf pulse

per the invest thread.

good forecast!

[Extremeweatherguy]

well we appear to have our June 10th gulf pulse

per the invest thread.

good forecast!

Yes, it was a good forecast because by the 10th the invest should be into the Gulf. Looks like a good call especially since he first forecasted it many weeks ago.

[x-y-no]

I don't know if JB plans to make position/intensity forecasts this year or not. But if he does would one of you who subscribe post them here, or if you're not comfortable doing that in real time maybe you could record them and post them at a later date (just so we can do verifications).

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest JB post says that the system in the NW Carrib. has a good shot at developing and he thinks it will move NW. It was a very brief post. He also talks about expanding nation-wide heat, a cool-wet period in the NE, and a few other things.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm confused... Which system does JB think will effect the West Gulf? The East Pac Low or the Carribean Invest?