Thoughts on global warming by Dr. Gray and others

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Scott_inVA
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#41 Postby Scott_inVA » Wed Jun 07, 2006 11:52 pm

bocadad wrote:
scott inVa

It is funny how an agenda is usually defined as the views of someone whose opinion one does not like. It is really big of Dr. Gray to acknowledge global warming. I am really impressed that he even allows that a tiny fraction of that may be caused by us. And of course, the quote by Sen. Inhofe calling global warming a hoax and prominently displayed by Dr. Gray was not in any way meant to reflect his personal affinity to that remark. Or perhaps he speaks out of both sides of his mouth.
There is nothing wrong with claiming climatology is responsible for global warming. It would be nice if you have the data to support it. What is not nice are the constant personal attacks on people who happen to believe in global warming, like referring to Al Gore as part of the lunatic fringe of environmentalists. Conservatives don't like global warming. They didn't like it before we had any understanding of it and they are not about to change their minds now. And they are perfectly willing and used to throwing paranoid charges of left wing conspiracy and whatever else furthers their own agenda. I say let the scientists alone to do their work and if we have any sense we will hope for the best and prepare for the worst. And isn't that the kind of advice you would give to anyone preparing for a hurricane season? Why should this be any different?[/quote]

A reasoned response for which I thank you. There is a body of science illustrating the Earth has undergone warmings that occurred over several decades.

Al Gore's comments, web site and speaking tour represent the lunatic fringe; it is near folly to find reasoned climatologists who agree with his Doomsday scenarios. He, the Natural Resources Defense Council and Greenpeace crowd are on the outer edges and actually impair scientists from doing their work.

"...humanity is sitting on a time bomb. If the vast majority of the world's scientists are right, we have just ten years to avert a major catastrophe that could send our entire planet's climate system into a tail-spin of epic destruction involving extreme weather, floods, droughts, epidemics and killer heat waves beyond anything we have ever experienced - a catastrophe of our own making."

If this hyperbole represents "the vast majority of the world's scientists" we are in a sorrowful position. Fortunately, most scientists do not agree, so one is left to ponder the motive behind the dour predictions.

And yes, the science should continue...on all fronts. Volcanoes, varying output from the Sun, explosive energy consumption in other larger countries, deforestation...even bovine flatulence and more. How presumptuous to believe two generations (of mostly SUV driving Americans) are culpable for whatever warming cycle we are experiencing!

You're right, I devote extensive time on my site and elsewhere urging people to prepare for hurricanes. But, I do not know how we prepare for Global Warming. Kyoto is not an option. Stopping China and India's 2 billion plus from developing energy needs will not work. But let's also not shut out those with a contrasting opinion.

Please don't cast me as a Dittohead Conservative. Proudly, I am a card carrying member of the Libertarian Party :wink:

Scott
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#42 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Jun 08, 2006 1:43 am

Finally, I just can't let the nonsense about the alleged consensus in the 70's of an oncoming ice age pass. This is a complete falsehood, and I have a hard time believing Dr. Gray doesn't know that given that he was working actively at the time. The fact that the only backup for this silly claim is an article in Newsweek (and nobody can provide even one piece of research published in the peer-reviewed journals making this claim) ought to clue in any objective reader to the truth.


Actually Time Magazine did a couple of articles as well, and cited SEVERAL concerned climatologists about the "cooling" earth. The Article was "The coming Ice Age"... and I have no doubt THAT much was Time's own spin on the issue to sell magazines--all the same, the concern at that time was very real, and I remember it all to well. Consensus... ?? No I doubt that there's complete consensus on all the hysteria about GW as well... in fact by definition, I know there isn't other than that "for now" the globe is warming, just as "for then" it was cooling. I'm all for monitoring the situation carefully; but I do think it's being overhyped.. JMHO.

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#43 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Jun 08, 2006 1:51 am

Ref: Realclimate.org as an "objective" website for information

It's maintained by scientists to educate the public about the latest advances in climate research. The scientists contributing to this site are very well respected in the field


I've visited it several times, and while I respect the contributors, and entitle them to their opinion, I would hardly call them objective at all. They are decidedly on the side of the alarmists, and any cursory view of their board will give glaring evidence as to which side of the fence they are on...and which they prefer to deride every chance they get.

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#44 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 08, 2006 7:22 am

Scott_inVA wrote:
x-y-no wrote:One article in the popular press does not constitute a scientific consensus. The fact is that in the mid 70s, the level of understanding in this field was terribly primitive compared to today. A National Geographic article contemporaneous with that Newsweek article did a much better job of expressing the uncertainties as they stood. It discussed everything from significant cooling to very strong warming as possibilities. That the (non-scientist) author of the Newsweek article focused on only part of the ongoing scientific discussion is no fault of climate scientists, and it's unfair (actually I would say dishonest) to portray such speculations which are nowhere expressed in the peer-reviewed literature as the broadly accepted scientific thinking at that time.


Your last sentence is incorrect. The early Seventies were a time of near-panic hysteria about Global Cooling...I well recall that debate.


If that were so there would be something other than an article in the popular press to back this up.

Look, my dad was a prominent researcher in physical oceanography throughout this period and many of the climate science researchers who later became quite involved in AGW research were frequent houseguests. As a very interested teenager, I discussed their work with them regularly. The "near-panic hysteria" you claim existed simply did not exist. Yes, there were concerns about the amount of aerosols we were putting in the atmosphere and how much impact they would have cooling the climate, but there was also concern (as early as 1972 in my recollection) about CO2 and its warming effect. Nobody knew which effect was bigger. The computing power just wasn't there yet (although Suki Manabe was woring on it and finally produced the first resonably realistic 2-D model).

So don't try and tell me I'm wrong. I WAS THERE as a first-person interested observer. I don't have to rely on some badly written Newsweek article to know what happened. I saw it personally.


My bottom line is simple. This is evolving science and it is counterfactual to take small trends and turn them to definitive, long-term, irreversable patterns.


All science is evolving perpetually. But it's just nonsense to equate some spegculations over 30 years ago which were based in no substantive research with the deep understanding we have developed in the intervening 30 years of intensive work in this field.

Dr. Gray's frustration apparently comes from an unrelenting discourse of political tripe. When the lunatic fringe like Al Gore grab more media time than everyone with an opposing view, some become discouraged.


I refrained from speculating on Dr. Gray's possible political motivations. This comment appears to be well outside the rules of this forum. Instead, would you please address the factual issues I raised with regard to Dr. Gray's recent statements? Is this issue so irredeemably political for you that it doesn't matter that things he's saying (and basing his argument on) are objectively false?


Nowhere do the strident proponents of GW acknowledge any cyclical pattern of warming and cooling (or active/less active TC seasons).


Talk about false sentences! This one takes the cake. Have you read the IPCC TAR? Have you read climate science site like Realclimate.org? These natural cycles are discussed and considered in depth.


Until that happens, this remains a political debate at polar extremes. That is not good for the planet, its' inhabitants, or the study of science. [/b]


Please, take a considered look at the scientific evidence. It's there.
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#45 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 08, 2006 7:43 am

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
Finally, I just can't let the nonsense about the alleged consensus in the 70's of an oncoming ice age pass. This is a complete falsehood, and I have a hard time believing Dr. Gray doesn't know that given that he was working actively at the time. The fact that the only backup for this silly claim is an article in Newsweek (and nobody can provide even one piece of research published in the peer-reviewed journals making this claim) ought to clue in any objective reader to the truth.


Actually Time Magazine did a couple of articles as well, and cited SEVERAL concerned climatologists about the "cooling" earth. The Article was "The coming Ice Age"... and I have no doubt THAT much was Time's own spin on the issue to sell magazines--all the same, the concern at that time was very real, and I remember it all to well. Consensus... ?? No I doubt that there's complete consensus on all the hysteria about GW as well... in fact by definition, I know there isn't other than that "for now" the globe is warming, just as "for then" it was cooling. I'm all for monitoring the situation carefully; but I do think it's being overhyped.. JMHO.

A2K


I could give you thousands of cites in the peer reviewed literature to back up anthropogenic global warming. What cites in the peer-reviewed literature do you have to back up this claim of some even remotely comparable concern about potential cooling? Quotes in the popular pres of speculations by "several concerned climatologists?" Come on!

Yes, this was an area of interest at the time, and probably qualified as a "concern" that merited some actual reasearch. So, at that same time, was warming due to human produced atmospheric CO2. Guess what ... that research was done and the second concern was the real one. Skeptics seem to want to pretend that we're still living in the 70's. :roll: But my original point still stands - there was no consensus, "panic" or whatever about an imminent ice age. There was some speculation, not backed up by any serious amount of research. That's all.

By contrast, there is a broad consensus (as embodied in the IPCC documents) about the reality of anthropogenic global warming and that it's probably of a size to have very serious impact over the coming centuries.
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#46 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 08, 2006 7:49 am

Audrey2Katrina wrote:Ref: Realclimate.org as an "objective" website for information

It's maintained by scientists to educate the public about the latest advances in climate research. The scientists contributing to this site are very well respected in the field


I've visited it several times, and while I respect the contributors, and entitle them to their opinion, I would hardly call them objective at all. They are decidedly on the side of the alarmists, and any cursory view of their board will give glaring evidence as to which side of the fence they are on...and which they prefer to deride every chance they get.

A2K


The site is devoted to pesenting the science regarding climate change. They do "deride" skeptics at times, sure, but only with the factual backup to show those skeptics are wrong.

If presenting the facts is now considered a bias worthy of dismissal, then we truly are in a sorry state.
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#47 Postby Scott_inVA » Thu Jun 08, 2006 7:59 am

This thread is illustrative of the entire debate. Those who share my view agree the planet is warming and research should and will continue. But, so long as the extreme fringe (Al Gore & company) objurgate the Earth will be a boiling wasteland in 10 years, the Chicken Littles will not listen to alternative viewpoints.

Re-ready your comments; there is *no* debating with those who believe we're destroying the planet at an alarming rate. What is it I or others could say that the Doomsdaysayers would listen to?

Silence is deafening. :roll:

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#48 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 08, 2006 8:27 am

Scott_inVA wrote:This thread is illustrative of the entire debate. Those who share my view agree the planet is warming and research should and will continue. But, so long as the extreme fringe (Al Gore & company) objurgate the Earth will be a boiling wasteland in 50 years, the Chicken Littles will not listen to alternative viewpoints.


Well, I still haven't seen Gore's movie, but I sincerely doubt he says anything of the sort. Care to provide a quote?

More generally, is there anything short of the fulfillment of all the worst possibilities which would justify taking some preemptive action? Do you keep catastrophic health insurance? If you do, why? Do you know with a certainty that you will suffer some catastrophic illness? Isn't it just a waste to insure yourself against something you can't be absolutely certain will happen? (It seems to me this is the mind-set of those who say we must endlessly do "more research" in pursuit of that illusory perfect knowledge before we can take any policy action whatsoever)


Re-ready your comments; there is *no* debating with those who believe we're destroying the planet at an alarming rate. What is it I or others could say that the Doomsdaysayers would listen to?

Silence is deafening. :roll:

Scott


Pick any point of view on any subject and you're going to find some subset of people who are completely beyond reason on that issue. But it's not a fair characterization at all to tar the whole group with the unreasonableness of that small subset.

Have I ever hesitated to debate issues in a reasoned fashion? It seems to me that (in this thread at least) it is I who am raising specific scientific issues and you who are refusing to even aknowledge them.

Is it not problematic for you that Dr. Gray supports his argument with a model of the themohaline circulation which is just plain wrong? Is it not problematic for you that he supports his argument with completely erroneous ideas of how the radiative heat balance functions? You wish to applaud Dr. Gray for his stand, but shouldn't the truth matter? Or is it more important to take the "right" stand than to adhere rigorously to facts?
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#49 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:20 am

FWIW he did provide a quote a few posts up.
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#50 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:48 am

jschlitz wrote:FWIW he did provide a quote a few posts up.


OK, sorry ... somehow I missed it.

So let's take a look:

"...humanity is sitting on a time bomb. If the vast majority of the world's scientists are right, we have just ten years to avert a major catastrophe that could send our entire planet's climate system into a tail-spin of epic destruction involving extreme weather, floods, droughts, epidemics and killer heat waves beyond anything we have ever experienced - a catastrophe of our own making."



That's a description of the higher end of the predicted range of impact, I agree. Had he said:

If the vast majority of the worlds climate scientists are right, we may have as little as ten years ...

(my changes in italics)

then I think it would be an accurate statement.

I do wish that advocates of policies to avert the worst effects of AGW would incorporate the issue of probabilities better in their declarations. But as I suggested above (in my question regarding catastrophic health insurance), there seems to be an unreasonable demand for certaintly in this issue (unlike most other things in life) before many are willing to discuss taking any policy action. So I think this lamentable tendency has emerged in reaction to that. (not justifying, just trying to find an explanation)
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#51 Postby Scott_inVA » Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:48 am

x-y-no wrote:Well, I still haven't seen Gore's movie, but I sincerely doubt he says anything of the sort. Care to provide a quote?


I *did* provide a direct quote. Scary and alarmist, isn't it? :wink: It is sourced from his equally alarmist site:
http://www.climatecrisis.net/aboutthefilm/



x-y-no wrote:
Is it not problematic for you that Dr. Gray supports his argument with a model of the themohaline circulation which is just plain wrong? Is it not problematic for you that he supports his argument with completely erroneous ideas of how the radiative heat balance functions? You wish to applaud Dr. Gray for his stand, but shouldn't the truth matter? Or is it more important to take the "right" stand than to adhere rigorously to facts?


Whose facts? I disagree with your opinion that your facts are determinative. One can likewise cite evidentiary facts showing cycles of both warming and cooling. But why bother because it certainly must be junk science.

I do not walk lockstep with Dr. Gray, but do applaud him for standing up to the extreme fringe. Those who think selfish humans (read: US) are primarily responsible for destroying the Earth in the next 10, 50 or 100 years are entitled to their opinion based on the "facts" they choose to believe. I do not. And, as a Libertarian, I'm ok with that.

Thanks...Time for me to drop the thread and get back to tropical weather.

Scott
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#52 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:09 am

Scott_inVA wrote:
x-y-no wrote:Well, I still haven't seen Gore's movie, but I sincerely doubt he says anything of the sort. Care to provide a quote?


I *did* provide a direct quote. Scary and alarmist, isn't it? :wink: It is sourced from his equally alarmist site:
http://www.climatecrisis.net/aboutthefilm/


See reply above.

x-y-no wrote:
Is it not problematic for you that Dr. Gray supports his argument with a model of the themohaline circulation which is just plain wrong? Is it not problematic for you that he supports his argument with completely erroneous ideas of how the radiative heat balance functions? You wish to applaud Dr. Gray for his stand, but shouldn't the truth matter? Or is it more important to take the "right" stand than to adhere rigorously to facts?


Whose facts? I disagree with your opinion that your facts are determinative. One can likewise cite evidentiary facts showing cycles of both warming and cooling. But why bother because it certainly must be junk science.


I named two specific areas in which his recent statements a objectively wrong. There are others.

He now argues that a slower THC is associated with the more active Atlantic phase. He proposes that this slower THC leads to a reduction in the rate of upwelling, which he believes occurs primarily in the equatorial Indian and west Pacific oceans. That's simply not true. The bulk of the upwelling associated with the THC occurs in the Southern Ocean in the vicinity of the Drake Passage. He appears to have seized on the (very old) Stommel model of the THC, rather than the correct Rooth model.

As I said, he also gets the radiative heat balance functions wrong, applying top-of-atmosphere equations at the surface.

Both these things are fundamental to the argument he makes. And yes, I'm sorry to say that if you base an argument on false premises, that's junk science.


I do not walk lockstep with Dr. Gray, but do applaud him for standing up to the extreme fringe.


As I said above, there will always be a fringe, no matter what the issue. If it's to be considered acceptable to dismiss an issue by conflating it with the statements of that fringe then absulutely everything can be so dismissed. I don't find this a fair approach in the least.


Those who think selfish humans (read: US) are primarily responsible for destroying the Earth in the next 10, 50 or 100 years are entitled to their opinion based on the "facts" they choose to believe. I do not. And, as a Libertarian, I'm ok with that.

Thanks...Time for me to drop the thread and get back to tropical weather.

Scott


Do you really believe that an entire field of science can exist for any length of time based on false "facts" chosen to fulfill some bias?
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#53 Postby Regit » Thu Jun 08, 2006 10:37 am

I don't know what the big problem is with Gore or the "extremists" on the no-GW side either. People who try to get things done are always well served by not giving an inch in their beliefs. When groups seek change in America they always seek a TOTAL change and nothing less.

You see this in organizations like the NRA, WWF, NAACP. As a rule, they have to go much farther in attempting change than they can ever expect to actually accomplish. The reason is, when you have two competing sides that are far apart on the spectrum, the result of their tugging is usually a middle ground. If either side gives an inch, the other side sees weakness and the final result is an inch away from where it would have been.

If Gore, et al., ever said, "Ok, GW isn't quite THAT bad, but we still need to do some things and here they are." The other side of the debate wouldn't also meet halfway, they would say, "They were wrong the whole time! We're right and GW is a hoax!"
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#54 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:09 pm

Skeptics seem to want to pretend that we're still living in the 70's.



And perhaps by 2050, "REAL" scientists will then be saying, "Skeptics seem to want to pretend that we're still living in the first decade of the 21st century!" :roll: ... Like you said... it evolves.

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#55 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:12 pm

The site is devoted to pesenting the science regarding climate change. They do "deride" skeptics at times, sure, but only with the factual backup to show those skeptics are wrong.


Which means, as far as I can see, that they positively brook no substantive opposinb viewpoints--hence, fail in the objectivity test. They have made up their minds, and are deeply entrenched with the alarmists. No big deal, each is entitled their own opinion--I only wanted to point out that they are NOT a forum for someone wishing truly objective exposure to both sides of th issue--it is not.

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#56 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:13 pm

If presenting the facts is now considered a bias worthy of dismissal, then we truly are in a sorry state.


That knife cuts both ways. :wink:

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#57 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:20 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
The site is devoted to pesenting the science regarding climate change. They do "deride" skeptics at times, sure, but only with the factual backup to show those skeptics are wrong.


Which means, as far as I can see, that they positively brook no substantive opposinb viewpoints--hence, fail in the objectivity test. They have made up their minds, and are deeply entrenched with the alarmists. No big deal, each is entitled their own opinion--


A number of skeptics regularly post replies there and get engaged in substantive discussions. Roger Pielke Sr. is a frequent one, also one of the guys from CEI (his name escapes me at the moment).

I don't think your characterization is at all accurate.

I only wanted to point out that they are NOT a forum for someone wishing truly objective exposure to both sides of th issue--it is not.

A2K


It's a site for presenting the science regarding climate change. They do quite a good job of that, IMHO.
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#58 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:23 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
If presenting the facts is now considered a bias worthy of dismissal, then we truly are in a sorry state.


That knife cuts both ways. :wink:

A2K


You'll have to give me an example of that knife cutting the other way, because I can't think of one.
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#59 Postby stormtruth » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:28 pm

Sorry! I'm sorry Scott_inVA and fwbbreeze. We were having a good conversation and I ruined it with insults just because I disagreed with you. Bad Stormtruth won't do that again.
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#60 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Jun 08, 2006 12:53 pm

It's a site for presenting the science regarding climate change. They do quite a good job of that, IMHO.


And you are certainly welcome to that opinion. I find it a site presenting one SIDE of the "science" and derisive of the other. IMHO.

A2K
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