Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Noles2006
- Category 1
- Posts: 424
- Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:57 am
- Location: Tallahassee, Florida
- Contact:
Stratusxpeye wrote:Wow. i cant even read the pages fast enough. if I post somthing or refresh theres 3 new threads and 2 new pages in the threads! SERVER OVERLOAD By days endWow. Happened will i was posting in the model discussion thread and boom theres the invest.
Jeesh things happen quickly
Yeah, I'm just staying in this thread and refreshing... I'm going to try to stay away from the other threads... this is going to be nuts! I sure hope the servers are prepared!
0 likes
The steering environment is weak and, combined with the current shear from the southwest to northeast trough across the system, this will likely be a slow and somewhat erratic mover.
Shear is showing hints of decreasing slightly as the trough moves away... look at this loop and shear map below...
Current shear
Visible RGB loop
Although plenty of shear is still evident, as shear and the upper-level flow slowly weakens a bit, we may see some slight - though not much - development. Who agrees?
Shear is showing hints of decreasing slightly as the trough moves away... look at this loop and shear map below...
Current shear
Visible RGB loop
Although plenty of shear is still evident, as shear and the upper-level flow slowly weakens a bit, we may see some slight - though not much - development. Who agrees?
0 likes
- jasons2k
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 8247
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
- Location: The Woodlands, TX
boca wrote:The bermuda high is suppossed to be building in so the reason why I said Texas is because of the ESE flow that will set up thus steering the system in that direction.
Yep, good thoughts on this. We've been expecting tropical moisture to come in from the south for next week - just was hoping it wouldn't be in the form of a possible cyclone.
For now, I'd have to say areas west of 90W are most at risk if this develops. I don't expect anything to really develop until it gets across the Yucatan and into the GOM.
0 likes
- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
- brunota2003
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9476
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
- Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
- Contact:
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 23021
- Age: 68
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Be careful of using the BAMD and even the BAMM on this one, as it'll be a low-level event. And, of course, ignore LBAR and the climo model completely all the time). Take a look at the BAMS for a good first estimate. I haven't seen it come in on our servers yet, but I would suspect a track farther south and west than the BAMM toard Mexico, possibly around 22-23N at landfall.
I'd give it about a 20-30% chance of becoming a TS next Monday or Tuesday in the BoC.
Looking at the latest ECMWF, it has a much stronger ridge over Texas and the NW Gulf than does the GFS early next week, indicating a west or even south of west track. We shall see. I tend to believe the ECMWF's upper-level flow over the GFS, though.
I'd give it about a 20-30% chance of becoming a TS next Monday or Tuesday in the BoC.
Looking at the latest ECMWF, it has a much stronger ridge over Texas and the NW Gulf than does the GFS early next week, indicating a west or even south of west track. We shall see. I tend to believe the ECMWF's upper-level flow over the GFS, though.
0 likes
My Current conditions map (I believe this is the same low pressure center we've been tracking slowly west over the past week)...I said a few days ago that I was fairly optimistic that this system could get going if conditions overhead improved just a little...the surface low has been VERY persistent, especially in light of extremely hostile conditions:
http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h119/rockyman_photos/GOES14452006159grEoQY.jpg

http://i62.photobucket.com/albums/h119/rockyman_photos/GOES14452006159grEoQY.jpg

0 likes
- skysummit
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5305
- Age: 49
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
- Location: Ponchatoula, LA
- Contact:
brunota2003 wrote:no...not to early yet...they could go in tomorrow and that is why the discussion is up...CHRISTY wrote:Guys there are to many threads open on this...the recon thread needs to be closed...a lil to soon for that.
I agree...the other Invest thread was locked per my request. Let this one be the real one and the Recon thread stay opened to see if they go there tomorrow. If they do, that Recon thread might actually become a sticky.
0 likes
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I go away for 2 hours and I come back to THIS!!! Wow! I can't believe they are actually giving this a chance. Looks like (if it develops) it could be a threat to anywhere from TX to FL...it is too early to tell.
Hey Extremeweatherguy you see that happens when you fall asleep at the wheel you drool all over yourself.
0 likes
- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
I still think TX needs to watch this one closely though. A slight change in the upper air conditions can mean hundreds of miles of difference.wxman57 wrote:Be careful of using the BAMD and even the BAMM on this one, as it'll be a low-level event. And, of course, ignore LBAR and the climo model completely all the time). Take a look at the BAMS for a good first estimate. I haven't seen it come in on our servers yet, but I would suspect a track farther south and west than the BAMM toard Mexico, possibly around 22-23N at landfall.
I'd give it about a 20-30% chance of becoming a TS next Monday or Tuesday in the BoC.
Looking at the latest ECMWF, it has a much stronger ridge over Texas and the NW Gulf than does the GFS early next week, indicating a west or even south of west track. We shall see. I tend to believe the ECMWF's upper-level flow over the GFS, though.
0 likes
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still think TX needs to watch this one closely though. A slight change in the upper air conditions can mean hundreds of miles of difference.
Well, right now it is in a weak steering environment between a somewhat building ridge and trough creating the shearing southwesterly flow over it. As the trough moves away, we may see some movement take place; until then, this will likely drift a bit or move little.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: HurricaneRyan and 31 guests